Iran, US Say Nuclear Talks In Final Stage, While Not Sure About Outcome
Both the United States and Iran said Wednesday that talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal are in their final stages, while hedging their bets about the outcome.
Both the United States and Iran said Wednesday that talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal are in their final stages, while hedging their bets about the outcome.
State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on Wednesday that the US is in "the midst of the very final stages" of indirect talks with Iran.
"This is really the decisive period during which we'll be able to determine whether a mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA is in the offing, or if it's not."
China's chief negotiator in Vienna, Wang Qun, also told Iran International's correspondent that the next day or two can be decisive in the talks, which are in their final satge.
Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani said on Twitter on Wednesday that "after weeks of intensive talks, we are closer than ever to an agreement; nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, though."
Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in an interview with the Financial Times said that any guarantee of a lasting agreement by the Biden Administration would not be enough and Tehran wants an assurance from Congress. Iran has been insisting to receive a guarantee that the US will not withdraw from a deal again, as former President Donald Trump decided to abandon the JCPOA in 2018.
Republicans and some Democrats have serious reservations about President Joe Biden’s Iran policy of reviving the JCPOA.
Mohsen Jalilvand has said in an interview with Aftab News website that Iran might fall victim to the Ukrainian developments and stressed that the only way to prevent this is holding direct talks with the United States rather than counting on Russia as a mediator between Tehran and Washington. Meanwhile, Jalilvand warned that Russia might take advantage of the situation.
The commentator agreed with Aftab News that a Russian attack on Ukraine seems to be inevitable and such an attack can leave a destructive impact on the Islamic Republic's diplomacy in Vienna. He said that Belarus, China and Iran support Russia in the conflict with Ukraine.
Jalilvand said that a war in Ukraine will lead to the total collapse of the negotiations in Vienna. He added that Russia might also use the Iran card in Vienna adding that "Russia might sell Iran out for concessions."
Meanwhile, Foreign Policy Commentator and former diplomat Kourosh Ahmadi said in an interview with Entekhab news website that the United States might soften its position in the Vienna negotiations to have more time to focus on the possibility of a Russian attack on Ukraine.
But he disagreed with Jalilvand on how far a Russian attack can impede talks in Vienna. He said the impact of the Ukrainian crisis on the nuclear negotiations is likely to be minimal and lead to minor disruptions and delays. He added that both the United States and Russia have said before that they have shared interests in the revival of the JCPOA.
Ahmadi reminded that the 2014 occupation of the Crimea took place in the middle of Iran's nuclear negotiations with the P5+1. But the overall impact on the negotiations was minimal. "Whatever Moscow's position, it cannot have a determining impact on the nuclear talks.," Ahmadi said.
Ahmadi said that it is unlikely that the Ukrainian crisis would lead to an all-out classic war. "It is more likely to be a limited operation like what happened in 2014, and not like the occupation of Afghanistan in 1979," he said.
Furthermore, he doubted that Iran would openly support such an attack, reminding that Tehran has not endorsed the 2014 Russian occupation of the Crimea.
He added that "if Iran and America have the political will to come to an agreement, other JCPOA member states can only be facilitators. Otherwise, they will be marginalized. On the other hand, Russia cannot afford not to be part of a possible agreement in Vienna." Ahmadi added that during the past three months Russia has always tried to moderate Iran's positions in Vienna.
In another development, reformist website Zeitoon quoted the former head of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Relations committee Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh as saying that the Russians are using Iran as a “barrier” in their confrontation with the West over Ukraine.
Falahatpisheh said: "Based on its interests, Russia is using Iran as a barrier in its confrontation with the United States. Moscow is likely to sell the JCPOA for Ukraine. However, Iranian officials wrongly believe that China and Russia are Iran's strategic allies. This comes while strategic alliance does not mean anything in today's world."
