Expert Warns of Potential Devastation As Iran Faces Severe Quake Risk
An Iranian expert has issued a stark warning about the country's vulnerability to devastating earthquakes.
An Iranian expert has issued a stark warning about the country's vulnerability to devastating earthquakes.
Ali Beitollahi, the head of the Seismology Center at the Housing and Urban Development Research Center, has revealed that in the event of an earthquake measuring seven on the Richter scale, approximately 60 percent of buildings in Iran could be destroyed.
Beitollahi explained that the Tehran-Karaj region, a densely populated area, faces a significantly higher risk. An earthquake with a magnitude of seven in the region alone could potentially result in the destruction of more than two million residential units, placing six million people in immediate danger.
The warning follows recent concerns expressed by Mehdi Pirhadi, a member of the Tehran Council, who emphasized the urgent need for building renovations in the capital to enhance earthquake resilience.
However, it is essential to recognize that the seismic risk is not limited to Tehran. Active fault lines stretch from Hamedan in the west to Gilan in the north, posing an imminent threat of a potentially catastrophic earthquake.
Iran, located at the convergence of the Arabian, Indian, and Eurasian tectonic plates, is renowned for its high seismic activity, making it one of the most earthquake-prone countries globally. The nation has witnessed several massive earthquakes in recent history, resulting in significant loss of life and substantial economic damage.
The British Embassy in Iran stirred social media discussions earlier this week when it shared a video interview with the British envoy in which he engaged in a casual and friendly conversation in Persian. During short questions and answers published as an Instagram post, Shercliff expressed his views on various cultural, social, historical, and tourism-related aspects of Iran.
In addition to expressing his fondness for Iranian people and culture, he called Shiraz “the best city” he visited and Rasht a city that bears the most resemblance to British cities. Mimicking the accent of people in the central city of Esfahan (Isfahan), he said that he liked best this accent of Persian. He also acknowledged his appreciation for Iranian cuisine and claimed that he can make a good Iranian kabab.
He named the mythological figure Kaveh the Blacksmith as his favorite, a statement that was construed by several pro-regime users as signaling “a code.” Kaveh is a 5000-year-old figure in Iranian mythology who led an uprising against ruthless ruler Zahak, a metaphor for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a lot of slogans chanted by people during last year’s uprising against the regime.
A large number of Iranian users commented on the British Embassy's Instagram post, with some users saying that Iranians never forget UK policies and actions against Iran in the 20th century and some wishing for the Iranian people to enjoy Iran just as much as Shercliff does.
Some users asked for Shercliff's assistance in facilitating the visa application process, especially for Iranian students aspiring to study in the UK. This comes at a time when many Iranian citizens face significant challenges in obtaining visas from various embassies, notably the British Embassy, amid a surge in immigration from Iran.
A lot of users pointed out Ambassador Shercliff's fluency in Persian, contrasting it with the often-limited English proficiency of Iranian diplomats. Others criticized the video's release, viewing it as part of what they referred to as the UK's "hidden and old policies" of social influence in other countries.
Praising the Shercliff's fluency in Persian, moderate Iranian news website Rouydad 24 said that “over 90 percent of Iranian diplomats in other countries were reported to lack proficiency in the local language.” "On the contrary, you can see the British ambassador showing off a commendable command of even Iranian dialects, as evidenced in this video with his proficiency in Esfahani Persian."
A pro-regime website in Tehran said that the ambassador’s profound understanding and precise mastery of Persian language, culture and customs raises questions about his background and training, claiming that such a level of cultural acumen can only be achieved if he received training from the British foreign intelligence service, the MI6. The website also mentioned Alireza Akbari, a former Iranian defense ministry official and an Iranian-British citizen, who was accused of spying for MI6 and executed.
London’s ambassador in Tehran has appeared regularly in news pieces in Iranian media as he has been summoned several times during the past year to the Islamic Republic’s foreign ministry over remarks either by himself or by other British officials about the regime’s crackdown on protesters. The latest incident was in August when he was summoned after he published comments calling for the release of jailed journalists.
In January, he published pictures, which he took together with his French and German colleagues Nicolas Roche and Hans-Udo Muzel, showing their embassies where Iranian regime elements had vandalized with anti-West slogans. A few days after a group of Iranian citizens voluntarily helped paint the walls, Tehran municipality headed by a hardliner mayor, installed banners near the embassy in the downtown bearing the sentence, “Shame cannot be erased with paint.”
In 2021, Russia's ambassador to Iran Levan Dzhagaryan (Jagarian) tweeted a photo of himself and Shercliffat the Russian embassy in the chairs made famous by a celebrated portrait of World War Two leaders, saying it was taken from the "historic steps of the 1943 Tehran conference." The 1943 conference was attended by former US president Franklin D. Roosevelt, Former UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and former Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin.
“I went to the United States in 2014 where I delivered a speech to [expat] Iranians. All of them longed to return home,” he said in a speech to his former aides and ministers on August 28 a short video of which was only published on Tuesday.
Rouhani added that an expatriate, apparently with high qualifications, who returned after this meeting was arrested at the airport, presumably by security forces taking their orders from places other than his government.
“They shut the door. Sadly, some people are happy that our talented youth are leaving. They say, 'Let them go so that others who support the hardline government can take their place,'" he said.
“We would not be facing this level of emigration if effective action had been taken by the government,” warned Shahriyar Heidari, an independent lawmaker who is deputy chairman of the parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the parliament. He also expressed concern about serious damage to the country’s academic foundations. “Most of the emigrants are gifted and expert individuals,” he added.
Pundits have repeatedly warned about the surge in emigration of academics, entrepreneurs, and professionals, particularly healthcare staff, and the younger elite since hardline President Ebrahim Raisi, took office two years ago.
There is no transparent data on emigration of Iranian elite and professionals, but some lawmakers occasionally provide fragmentary information about the scope of the problem.
Among those who have lost hope in the country’s prospects, particularly the younger generation from all walks of life, emigration appears to be the only option for a better life. A recent poll by the US-based Statis Consulting found that almost half of Iranian youth want to leave the country amid pessimism about their future.
“All around me there are people who are emigrating, essentially escaping, those who never wished or liked to go. I wish you [the Islamic Republic] were gone and all of these people stayed,” an anonymous person wrote said on social media.
Bahram Salavati, the head of Iran Migration Observatory (IMO), warned about "mass migration" and loss of human capital due to what he dubbed "Venezuelization of the Iranian economy" resulting from low “economic stability” and inflation in January 2021. "The desire to migrate once prevalent among the educated and the elite is now rapidly spreading among various social classes, particularly the low-income groups.”
The IMO, a research institute founded during Rouhani's second term as president at Sharif University of Technology, monitors data and produces analyses on emigration, particularly for policymakers. The IMO published the first edition of Iran Migration Outlook, which includes data on Iranian emigrants worldwide, international students, and asylum-related emigrants.
On August 2, while expressing his frustration over the lack of support for their efforts to mitigate the brain drain phenomenon, Salavati said that the observatory's funding had stopped, and they had been ordered to vacate their offices.
An IMO survey in 2022 found that economic and social instability, institutionalized corruption, and the regime's governance methods were responsible for the very high desire to emigrate among medical students, professors, and other healthcare professionals, with the UAE being their top destination.
Countries such as the United States, Canada, Germany, Turkey, Oman, and the United Kingdom are other favorite destinations for Iranians leaving their homeland behind in search of a better life and improved opportunities.
In July 2021, Salavati had told the Hamshahri newspaper that the closure of the gap between a desire to leave and a decision to leave meant "a drop in hope as well as economic and social participation in Iran," as other countries offered various educational, professional, investment, or social attractions.
