An investigation by Iran International shows three Iran experts who worked closely with Robert Malley, the US special envoy on Iran, were members of an influence network formed by Tehran. The joint reporting project with Semafor is based on thousands of emails from diplomats.
According to the latest report from ISC, the point-to-point inflation rate is approximately 40 percent, signifying that Iranian households now spend 40 percent more on purchasing an "identical set of goods and services" compared to September 2022.
In the absence of credible data from the Central Bank of Iran regarding inflation rates, Iran's Statistical Center has become the primary official entity for announcing these figures. Government officials and, at times, the central bank tend to announce lower inflation figures prices for consumer goods. The central bank, along with the Ministry of the Economy, ceased issuing regular economic data in 2019 when US sanctions that pushed an already struggling economy into a deep recession.
Although Iran's Statistics Center is administered and funded by the government and operates under the umbrella of Planning and Budget Organization, it has maintained a veneer of credibility as one of the very scarce sources of data – both economic and social. However, it has recently faced pressure from the regime to release figures in line with the government's propaganda. In July, President Ebrahim Raisi sacked the head of Iran's Statistics Center.
Despite the regime's claims of increased crude oil sales and the positive impact of releasing Iran's revenues from Iraq and South Korea, which were blocked under US sanctions, economic hardships continue to pressure Iranians. The purchasing power of the average household in Iran has significantly decreased in recent years, with the highest price hikes affecting food items. Meat, once the primary source of protein for wage earners in Iran, was initially replaced by chicken, and more recently by eggs.
Approximately a year ago, Iran's rial was trading at around 300,000 per US dollar, but in early May, it dropped to as low as 550,000. Currently, it stands above 490,000. This drastic devaluation of the rial illustrates the severity of inflation in Iran. In July, a lawmaker stated that the annual inflation rate was 120 percent, contradicting the 60 or 70 percent figures cited by various politicians and academics. According to World Bank figures from June, Iran's food inflation rate stood at 78 percent.
The head of Tehran's Supermarkets Union said last week that "people's purchasing power has declined by more than 50% compared to the same period last year, disrupting the supply chain in the market." Davoud Fekouri had to refute his earlier claims in an interview with the state news agency IRNA. In his Monday interview, he was apparently forced to say that supermarket sales have decreased insignificantly and claimed that “it was primarily due to rising prices of certain food items, such as pasta, dairy products, tomato paste, canned fish, and others."
According to data by SCI, over a 10-year period from 2011 to 2021, per capita consumption of rice and red meat decreased by 20.5 percent and 54 percent, respectively. Moreover, per capita consumption of milk and dairy products dropped by 13.4 percent, and per capita consumption of fish and shrimp halved.
Lawmaker Abbas Moghtadaei Khourasgani claimed on Monday that US measures such as sanctions and freezing Iranian funds abroad have “failed miserably,” and people will feel the positive impact of the government’s policies in the near future. “Unfreezing Iran’s assets is among the very positive endeavors of the current administration that will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the people's well-being,” he said, adding that the released funds will help control the market and the devaluation of rial. In the past few days, rial’s exchange rate has fallen against the dollar, albeit insignificantly.
However, the release of Iran’s money from Iraqi banks -- that apparently started in June -- and its $6 billion in oil revenues from South Korea earlier this month as well as a rise in oil exports have so far failed to make a dent in the adversity people face.
A recent photo that went viral on social media shows 13 students of the prestigious Sharif University at the Tehran International Airport before leaving the country for good. Sharif University is one of the best of its kind in Iran and many of its graduates have relocated to the United States to continue their studies.
During the Women, Life Freedom protests in October 2022, security forces violently attacked the university in downtown Tehran and injured and arrested several dozen students.
A report on Khabar Online website told the story of Sharif University students at the airport and quoted one of the students as saying that "at least 10 of them left Iran on that night." He said, "With the students who were there to see off their friends, the departure hall looked more like the Sharif University than the Imam Khomeini Airport."
The report added that up to 100 of the 120 students admitted to Sharif University last year have left Iran for good. The viral photo which was mainly posted by reformist politicians on X, Instagram and Telegram, and the comments made by social media users have created a wave of sad sentiments on social media.
The exact number of students who left the country that night is a matter of dispute, but there is no doubt that scores have left in the past few weeks.
Accounts by Sharif students indicated that many more of their classmates have already left or planning to leave. Mohammad, one of the students, told Khabar Online that when he entered the airport hall, it looked like the university's courtyard. Upon his arrival, Mohammad saw some 20 of his classmates as well as many graduates of other universities who were all waiting to depart and fly to a third country before the last leg of their travel to the United States. He said with a degree of certainty that at least 6 of those in the picture left that night.
Earlier, Shahin Akhundzadeh, a professor at the Tehran University's school of medicine told Khabar Online that at least 50 of the students that were admitted to that school in 2014, later left Iran for good. However, according to the report, there is no reliable official statistics about student migration.
Mohammad told Khabar Online that some of the student resolved to leave Iran after the security police locked them in the university last October and badly battered them. He said during the past years, some of the students left Iran with a clear intention to return after graduation, but their families encourage to stay abroad.
Earlier in September, Iran’s former President Hassan Rouhani criticized the harsh treatment of the elite, alleging that some officials are pleased that they are leaving the country. Rouhani added that an expatriate, apparently with high qualifications, who returned after this meeting with Iranian students in the United States in 2014 was arrested at the airport, presumably by security forces taking their orders from places other than his government.
Shahriyar Haydari, the deputy chairman of the parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee has said: “We would not be facing this level of emigration if effective action had been taken by the government,” adding that “Most of the emigrants are gifted and expert individuals.”
Meanwhile, Dr Saeid Moidfar, chairman of the Iranian Sociological Association, told the press early September that a new wave of emigration, sparked by the crackdown on last year's nationwide protests and a deep economic crisis, is reaching a critical point. Moidfar warned that Iran is now on the threshold of a very intense wave of emigration because those who want to leave believe that political and economic circumstances are not going to improve in Iran, the society’s values are degrading, and corruption and crime are on the rise.
