Iran Conducts Second Controversial Satellite Launch In One Week
Iran simultaneously launched three satellites for the first time on Sunday using the domestically developed Simorgh (Phoenix) rocket, state media reported.
Iran simultaneously launched three satellites for the first time on Sunday using the domestically developed Simorgh (Phoenix) rocket, state media reported.
One satellite weighing 32 kg (70 pounds) and two nano-satellites of less than 10 kg each were sent to a minimum orbit of 450 km (280 miles), with the two smaller devices aimed at testing narrowband communication and geo-positioning technology, the reports said.
Iran’s satellite launches are viewed by the United States and its European allies as a possible cover to develop long-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
A recent US intelligence assessment suggested that launching satellites “shortens the timeline” for Iran to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile. It is all the more worrying, experts say, since Iran is on the verge of nuclear capability, according to most intelligence estimates and recent International Atomic Energy Agency reports.
This was Tehran’s second satellite launch in one week. On January 21, the government announced the launch of the Soraya satellite, which it claimed was put into an orbit 750 kilometers above the earth.
The larger satellite, named "Mahda" and built by Iran's Space Agency, is meant to test the accuracy of the Simorgh rocket in delivering multiple cargoes to space.
European powers raised concerns about the launch of Soraya, saying that the space launch vehicle's technology could be used for the development of long-range ballistic missile systems.
Iran on Saturday dismissed European countries’ condemnation of its launch of the Sorayya satellite, saying peaceful technological advancement in the aerospace field was the country’s legitimate right.
The rial fell to 562,000 against the US dollar on Saturday, as uncertainty grows about a military escalation in the region and Trump's successes in US Republican primaries.
UPDATE: The expected escalation happened quickly. Following the news on Sunday of an attack on a US base in Jordan where three US serviceman died, and President Joe Biden's threat of retaliation, the weakened rial fell further to 575,000 per dollar.
The Iranian currency has fallen about 13-fold since 2018, when then-president Trump pulled the United States out of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal and imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and international banking.
Additionally, the price of the British pound and euro, which soared to record highs in Iran last Tuesday, experienced further escalation on Saturday. Each pound was traded for 714,200 rials, while each euro fetched approximately 610,000 rials in Tehran's free currency market, which despite some official exchange rates, reflects the real value of the rial against foreign currencies.
Amid the economic woes, Iran's leading economic newspaper Donya-e-Eqtesad has drawn attention to the potential ramifications of Trump's potential return to the White House, citing it as a factor contributing to the rise of foreign currencies and the price of gold. The paper also highlighted regional instabilities, particularly in the Red Sea, as factors fueling economic insecurity among Iranian investors. Last week, the devaluation of the rial intensified following Iran's ballistic missile strikes on targets in Iraq and Pakistan. Tensions were already heightened due to Iran-backed Houthis' assaults on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
According to Donya-e-Eqtesad, market analysts attribute the rial’s freefall to various factors, including "increased cost of trade with Iraq," as well as the developments related to the US presidential elections.
However, state-run media in Iran claim that the rise in the foreign currency exchange rates is just a “bubble” created by those who seek to benefit from fluctuations in the market. Iran’s chief banker Mohammad-Reza Farzin claims that the country enjoys a “favorable foreign exchange reserves.” Farzin said last week that fluctuations in the market are transient.
Fars news agency, affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, claims that the rial will bounce back in the coming days, speculating that rial’s will settle at about 520,000 per dollar.
Asr-e Iran, a moderate-conservative website, published an article arguing that the impact of the news about Trump’s victory on Iran’s currency market is trumpeted as a manipulation tactic aimed at creating a false psychological and media atmosphere and fostering speculative inflation in Iran.
Rejecting the assumption that Iran’s oil exports increased due to a lax enforcement of US sanctions under the Biden administration, Asr-e Iran said the real reasons behind the rise in oil revenues are the government's efforts to sell oil through unofficial channels and the recovery of the global energy market following the slump caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It added that geopolitical repercussions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the OPEC+ decision, in collaboration between Russia and Saudi Arabia, to curb crude supply have also prevented market saturation and created opportunities for the sale of sanctioned oil, including the Iranian crude. A very significant factor is the willingness of small Chinese refineries, known as "teapots," to buy sanctioned oil at discounted rates, the article highlighted.
All in all, there is a rumor circulating in Iran that the government was trying its best – mainly through injecting foreign currency into the market -- to keep the wobbly rial stable until the re-election of Joe Biden, who is believed to have overlooked Iran's sanction-busting. However, the growing chance of Trump landing at the White House has dashed Tehran’s hopes for the steady flow of its oil exports.
Sajjad Bourbour, a senior economic pundit, told Centrist Aftab News that the Iranian currency market heavily depends on the prospects of Tehran mending relations with the West. He mentioned that despite the Central Bank’s injection of approximately 2 quadrillion rials (about $4 billion) into the market to prevent rial's fall, the currency is at its all-time low.
With an annual inflation rate of at least 50 percent, the diminishing value of the rial signals further inflationary pressures in the months ahead. Monthly wages for workers, averaging less than $200, exacerbate the challenges within an economy where inflation outpaces salary adjustments. Such economic strains have led to strikes and protests across various sectors, including oil and gas production platforms and refineries.
The pro-Iranian cyber army is “gaming the platform’s limited moderation controls in English and especially Arabic to suppress criticism and amplify their own narrative,” wrote Geneva-based Samara Azzi in the “Fikra Forum” section of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy website.
Referring to the “unprecedented” level of misinformation about the world conflicts, particularly the war in Gaza, Azzi warned that the attempts to report false information and misattributed videos on Arabic X runs the risk of confronting the reactions of the cyber army of the “axis of resistance,” including the supporters of the Islamic Republic’s proxy groups in the region such as Hamas, Hashd al-Shaabi and Hezbollah.
In the case of marking posts and comments critical of the “axis of resistance,” Iran's regional militias, pro-Iran users will report them in a coordinated manner in an attempt to shadow ban, block and eventually de-platform activists, she added, further stressing that the cyber army is fed upon “the deep pockets of their Iranian backers.”
Ever since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas conflict on October 7, activists, politicians and security experts have warned of the alarming level of misinformation on social media. On October 30, the Associated Press reported a “flood” of misinformation regarding the war, saying that it is not easy for users “to sort fact from fiction.”
“In the fog of war, rumors and lies are especially dangerous, capable of taking on the veneer of fact and affecting decisions,” warned a New York Times article published on Thursday.
Samara Azzi stated that the situation is further exacerbated for Arabic users of X as they face both a misinformation campaign and a coordinated pro-Iran cyber army. The unwholesome result is self-censoring for many users as they choose to avoid making controversial remarks so as not to incur the wrath of Hezbollah and Hamas sympathizers, she stated.
Azzi also took to task X’s “moderation failures,” accusing some of the platform’s Arabic language moderators of backing pro-Iran proxy groups. According to her, several workers in X’s MENA offices in Dubai have voiced their support for the Free Patriotic Movement, a Lebanese political party and a Hezbollah ally.
There have been reports of a similar problem in other social networks as well. In 2022, three human rights groups called on Meta, the owner of Instagram and Facebook, to alter its Persian-language content review procedures for Iran. The groups voiced their concerns over the company censoring content by Iranian dissidents and democracy advocates.
Some Iranians also complained that their Instagram posts were being restricted. BBC’s sources then alleged that pro-regime employees of the German branch of Telus International, a Canadian contractor which provides content moderation to Instagram, are responsible for restricting anti-government content of Iranian users.
Azzi also criticized X for allowing Hezbollah agents to operate freely in the platform, saying they tweet with impunity.
Much to our dismay, things have only worsened regarding the representation of Middle Eastern politics after Elon Musk bought Twitter, she noted, adding, “There is also little clarity about what future efforts will be undertaken to address this issue.”
