Israel has conducted airstrikes on more than 50 Hezbollah targets in Syria and 3,400 in Lebanon since the onset of the Gaza war, which sparked a regional offensive by Iran's proxies in allegiance with Hamas.
“Since the beginning of the war, we have attacked, from the ground and air, more than 50 such targets of Hezbollah spread throughout Syria,” Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari told reporters.
Since the Gaza war began on October 7, after Iran-backed Hamas invaded Israel, killing 1,200 mostly civilians and taking more than 250 hostages, the worst tensions between Iran's biggest proxy Hezbollah and Israeli forces on its northern border have reached crisis point.
The toll from the clashes includes at least 218 deaths in Lebanon, primarily Hezbollah militants, and at least 26 civilians. In northern Israel, the conflict has claimed the lives of nine Israeli soldiers and six civilians since it commenced, with around 200,000 people displaced on both sides, fearing wider escalation.
In response to Hamas's attack on October 7, the single most deadly day for Jews since the Holocaust, Israel launched a relentless offensive involving airstrikes, ground operations, and naval bombardments. Hamas claims Israel has killed at least 27,238 people, predominantly women and children.
Proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen have also joined the war in support of Hamas, attacking both US and Israeli targets in the region, in addition to a blockade of the Red Sea, affecting global shipping.
Esmail Kowsari, who is of many IRGC senior officers in the hardliner faction in the parliament, reiterated that if there were any Iranian bases among the targets hit by the US in Iraq and Syria, Tehran would have retaliated. He also dismissed any role in the drone attack in Jordan on January 28 that killed three US soldiers and precipitated current tensions.
In the meantime, the United States and Britain launched strikes against 36 Houthi targets in Yemen on Saturday, in the second day of major US operations against Iran-linked groups. The strikes hit buried weapons storage facilities, missile systems, launchers and other capabilities the Houthis have used to attack Red Sea shipping, the Pentagon said, adding it targeted 13 locations across the country.
US officials had warned during the week that they were planning a string of attacks on Iran-affiliated targets in the region, and that the retaliatory operation would not be limited to one massive attack.
The action against the Houthis seems to have proven that threat. "This collective action sends a clear message to the Houthis that they will continue to bear further consequences if they do not end their illegal attacks on international shipping and naval vessels," US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said.
Iran seeing the writing on the wall tries to disassociate itself from the US strikes on its proxies. Kowsari, when asked if Iran would retaliate, said, "These attacks have no connection to Iran at all. But if the slightest action threatens our resources or interests by the United States, we will undoubtedly and certainly respond with a crushing blow that they will regret."
It is noteworthy that the first wave of retaliatory strikes in Iraq and Syria took place five days after the attack on the US base in Jordan, leading to criticism that IRGC personnel and senior proxy leaders had ample time to vacate military bases and potential target areas.
Attacks by Iran-backed armed groups started in mid-October after the Gaza war began and so far more than 160 such strikes on US forces in Iraq and Syria have taken place using drones and rockets. The US has retaliated several times against militia targets, but critics say without inflicting pain on the Iranian regime, which is the main sponsor of these groups, nothing will change. Tehran is ready to sacrifice Arab and Afghan fighters it employs, so any retaliation should be aimed at deterring Iran’s rulers.
Official Iranian statements and media coverage of US airstrikes on Saturday indicated that the concerns about a serious retaliation have dissipated and Tehran can move on with pursuing its regional policies.
By Sunday, Iran’s battered currency continued to rise and regained half of the losses it had sustained since early January, once the US strikes appeared to be limited to militia targets, and not directly aimed at any Iranian assets.
However, any increase in tensions with the United States could lead to further currency losses less than four weeks from parliamentary elections, already marred by voter apathy.
On Friday night, the United States hit about 85 targets linked to IRGC Quds Force and affiliated militia groups in Iraq and Syria, but fears of direct US retaliation to the Iran-backed attack in Jordan that killed three US soldiers and wounded scores did not materialize.
The Biden administration after waiting for five days, targeted bases and warehouses belonging to IRGC proxy forces in Syria and Iraq, after multiple reports indicated that these forces evacuated key personnel and perhaps some weapons.
The regime’s reaction to recent US attacks in Iraq and Syria has not exceeded its usual rhetoric of condemnation and accusations against “the enemy.”
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian condemned the attacks on Thursday, saying they stem from Washington’s “continued wrong and failed approach to resolving issues by resorting to force and militarism.”
Earlier in the day, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Nasser Kanaani also dismissed the US offensives as an “adventurous action” and a “strategic mistake,” claiming that they violate international law, the UN Charter, and sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria.
The Iranian currency also somewhat regained its footing, after falling more than 15 percent since early January due to rising regional tensions.
Meanwhile, the Syrian government, Hamas, and Iran-backed Iraqi militant groups Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba and Hashd al-Shaabi condemned the attacks as well.
Hamas said the “aggression” was an attempt to “cover up Israel’s horrific crimes” in the Gaza Strip.
The Syrian Foreign Ministry warned that the attacks can “fuel conflict in the Middle East in a very dangerous way.”
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s office also condemned the airstrikes as a “new aggression against Iraq's sovereignty,” announcing they killed 16 people, including civilians, and injured 25.
The US-led coalition in the region “has become a reason for threatening security and stability in Iraq and a justification for involving Iraq in regional and international conflicts,” the office added.
State-sponsored and military-affiliated news agencies in Iran also covered US operations in Iraq and Syria.
IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency reiterated the regime’s rhetoric regarding the incident and even claimed that the Tehran-backed umbrella group, Islamic Resistance in Iraq, carried out a missile attack against Ain al-Asad Air Base in the western province of Anbar, where US forces are stationed. The attack has not yet been confirmed by US officials.
Fars, another IRGC affiliated news agency, published a report titled “‘Belated and Failed Attacks’: Biden Administration under Criticism.”
Citing Roger Wicker, ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, US House Speaker Mike Johnson, and Mike Pompeo, former secretary of state, Fars concluded that the recent US military operations in Iraq and Syria have failed to appease the critics of President Joe Biden, who has been under increasing pressure over the past days to retaliate against Iran and its proxies.
In what can be interpreted as an indirect reaction, IRNA, the Iranian state news agency, reported on Iran’s “defensive and military capabilities.”
Rouydad24, a relatively independent news agency in Iran, tried to distance itself from the mouthpieces of the regime and adopted a more analytical approach.
Rouydad24 conducted an interview with former Iranian lawmaker Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, who once served as the head of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Iranian parliament.
Falahatpisheh discussed the “propaganda” objectives of Biden’s administration and stressed that the recent attacks were intended for “domestic consumption” in the US.
Discussing the relationship between Tehran and militant groups in the region, he remarked, “Now it is too late for Iran to say that it is not coordinating with the resistance forces.”
Iran has avoided any direct military involvement in the Israel-Hamas conflict and has instead used its proxy groups such as Houthis and Hezbollah to attack Israeli and American targets in the Middle East. Nonetheless, Iranian officials claim these groups act “independently” and do not receive direct orders from Iran.
