In the lead-up to the 45th anniversary of the 1979 revolution and the March 1 elections, Iranian officials have escalated their rhetoric, resorting to outrageous statements and unfounded claims.
The recent revelation by the Prana Network of Iran's clandestine arms deal with Russia, valued at $1.75 billion, has sparked concerns about its implications on global security and regional stability. Additionally, Iran's acquisition of the Russian S-300 air defense system in 2016, along with its forthcoming procurement of advanced Russian military aircraft, signals a significant milestone in their evolving defense partnership.
It's worth noting that under Resolution 2231, which endorsed the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran was prohibited from importing and exporting certain missiles, drones, and related technologies without prior UN Security Council approval. However, this resolution expired in October 2023.
This growing alliance has raised concerns about the possibility of Iran supplying precision-guided ballistic missiles to Russia following the expiration of UN sanctions. However, some analysts remain doubtful about Iran's willingness to provide Russia with cutting-edge weaponry, citing concerns about preserving its own military capabilities and its desire for international recognition as a responsible arms trader. Nevertheless, the covert arms agreement between Russia and Iran, alongside their deepening military cooperation, underscores the need for vigilance regarding their actions and their potential impact on both regional and global security dynamics.
Regarding Leaked documents. Theodore Karasik, Senior Advisor from Gulf State Analytics, believes that "This data reveals details of the Russia-Iran relationship regarding weapon systems, despite budget constraints. Despite differences, they collaborate closely, as evidenced by the recent meeting between Russian National Security Advisor Nikolai Patrushev and his counterpart Ali Akbar Ahmadian."
The impact of the arms deals between Russia and Iran on the Middle East
The arms agreement between Iran and Russia has the potential to escalate tensions in the Middle East, leading to increased regional military spending and arsenals. This heightened militarization not only threatens regional stability but also poses risks to American and allied forces when engaging with Tehran's proxies. Additionally, by bolstering Iran's ballistic missile capabilities and potentially supporting Russia's operations in Ukraine, the arms transfer raises concerns about international security and the likelihood of further destabilization. Moreover, the agreement could fuel a regional arms race, undermining efforts towards peace.
Dr. Ariel Cohen, Managing Director of the energy, growth, and security program at the International Tax and Investment Center, and a Senior Fellow at The Atlantic Council, has underscored the economic implications of Iran's arms sales to Russia, raising questions about Tehran's motives and the impact on the Iranian people. Concerns persist regarding the involvement of nuclear weapon technology, potentially further destabilizing the Middle East. Additionally, the exchange of advanced weaponry between Iran and Russia poses a significant threat to global security, necessitating careful international monitoring and regulation to prevent escalating conflicts and instability worldwide.
Challenges and Opportunities
Understanding the challenges of Iran's covert arms trade, particularly with Shahed-136 drones and Russian weaponry, is essential for assessing its impact and requires a nuanced understanding of geopolitical dynamics and risks. These challenges include the potential escalation of war, violations of international law and sanctions, threats to regional stability, and reputational risks for Iran as an arms dealer. However, there are also opportunities for economic gains and the growth of Iran's military industry, as well as the strengthening of the Iran-Russian strategic partnership.
In conclusion, the Iran-Russia arms trade underscores geopolitical maneuvers, with Russia deploying inexpensive drones like the Shahed-136 against Ukrainian forces. This highlights the need for international collaboration to regulate the arms trade and ensure accountability, mitigating the destructive effects of conflict and fostering peace in affected regions. Questions about Iran's responsibility for the harm caused by these weapons emphasize the importance of international oversight in managing arms transfers and addressing broader conflict ramifications, advancing principles of transparency, accountability, and peace in conflict zones.
Deputy US Special Envoy for Iran Abram Paley released a video message stating that “the Islamic Republic has brought only violence and corruption at home and abroad.”
“Forty-five years ago today, the revolution in Iran led to the establishment of a regime based on fear, violence and oppression,” Paley said, as the Islamic Republic holds nationwide government-organized rallies to celebrate the 45th year of its establishment. “Flagrant and human rights abuses against dissidents, journalist, artists and minorities persist on a daily basis, and only underline the regime’s weakness.”
Paley’s message has drawn thousands of online responses by Iranians, who point out that Washington’s appeasement of Tehran while it is engaged in abuses at home and destabilizing acts abroad has encouraged the regime to continue such behavior. A large number of activists as well as American Republican politicians say the Biden administration is “soft” on Iran, demanding more pressure and less compromise.
In an interview with Iran International in January, Paley himself said that “words are not enough” but no decisive action has been taken by the US to stop Iran. Washington regularly announces sanctions on Iranian officials and entities but overall enforcement is so lax that the Islamic Republic’s oil revenues have tripled since President Joe Biden assumed office.
The Biden administration seems to have framed its Iran policy around a wish to revive the abandoned 2015 nuclear deal or at least come to another (written or unwritten) agreement that would limit Iran’s nuclear program. It also agreed to release billions of dollars of Iran's revenues frozen in South Korea and Iraq under US sanctions as part of a prisoner swap deal, described by critics as the biggest ransom ever paid to a hostage taker. About $6 billion was freed up for Iran in September after Iran released five Iranian-Americans held in Tehran in exchange for five Iranians imprisoned in the US, and another $11 billion from Iraq.
Paley highlighted that instead of providing for its people's needs, the Iranian regime spends money “on expanding its nuclear program in ways that have no credible, peaceful purpose, fueling instability across the region, proliferating dangerous weapons to places like Russia and disrupting international commerce.”
Considering Iran’s supply of drones and missiles for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is no surprise that Moscow was among the first countries that congratulated Iran on the anniversary. In a video message, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova echoed a propaganda line reiterated by Iranian authorities, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, saying that Russia and Iran are joining forces to establish a new global order.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi also delivered a speech for the occasion, which -- not-surprisingly – was again focused on Israel and the war in Gaza. Since Iran-backed Hamas attacked Israel, Tehran and its regional proxies have ramped up their operations against US targets. Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Syria have been striking US bases, Hezbollah in Lebanon has been launching missiles towards northern Israel, and Yemen's Houthis have been attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea, all in allegiance with Hamas to pressure Israel into ceasing its offensive in Gaza. Hamas is part of Iran's "Axis of Resistance", a regional alliance that includes Lebanon's Hezbollah, the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad, Shiite militia groups in Iraq and the Houthis who control a large part of Yemen.
While thousands of people chanted "Death to Israel" and “Death to America” in rallies across Iran on Sunday, with some burning US and Israeli flags, President Raisi accused the United States and some Western countries of backing "the Zionist regime's (Israel) crimes against humanity in Gaza".
Paley, elsewhere in his message, claimed that “the Islamic republic has never been more isolated than it is today” because of its own choices. The statement was reflected in Raisi’s speech from a very different perspective as he claimed Iran is “the most independent country in the world, not depending on the West or the East”
Paley also acknowledged that “the people of Iran have demonstrated courage and resilience in the face of a system that sensors, arrests, tortures and execute them." Raisi said that “contrary to what proponents of free speech claim, real freedom exists in this country and system.”
Addressing Iranians, Paley said “the United States will continue to support you in your fight for a free and Democratic future.” “We will continue to provide tools to access the uncensored Internet that you need to advocate for your future, and we will continue to work with partners to counter the regime support for terrorism across the Middle East, which comes only at your expense.”
Many Iranians marked the 45th anniversary of the 1979 Revolution on the eve of regime-sponsored celebrations with cries of "Death to the Dictator" and “Death to the Islamic Republic,” ringing through neighborhoods in the capital Tehran.
This surge in exaggeration and falsehoods appears directly correlated with the regime's mounting desperation to achieve its short-term objectives. As the engineered parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections draw near, the regime has intensified its assertions of remarkable achievements, inflated claims of popularity reaching as high as 97 percent, and exaggerated portrayals of economic and scientific advancements.
Mass production of nonsense
During election season, an abundance of superlatives and claims of "firsts" flood the discourse:: Iran is the most independent country in the world, Iran is the first in the production of science, and Iran is the most important global power. Facing a serious economic crisis and lack of popularity, authorities are turning to such statements on a daily basis.
"Today, Iran is among the top 20 countries in the world in terms of economy, and according to statistics, the people of Iran today have good purchasing power," said the Interior Minister.
"More than 97 percent of the people accept the regime and the revolution and will never abandon it," said the Judiciary Minister.
"The people still adhere to the ideals of the regime and the revolution after 45 years," said the Sports Minister.
"Islamic Iran is the most independent country in the world and the whole world accepts this," said the Fars Province governor.
"The Islamic revolution after the Prophet's mission... was the most important event in the history of mankind... the enemies know that no country is as important as Iran," said the deputy commander of IRGC.
These are clear signs of self-aggrandizement, delusion, and living in a self-made bubble in these statements. According to a Goman Institute poll, in response to the question if a free referendum was held today with the inquiry "Islamic Republic: Yes or No?", %75 answered "No to the Islamic Republic" and only 16% said that their answer was positive.
These statements are indicative of self-aggrandizement, delusion, and a detachment from reality. According to a Gamaan Institute poll published on Sunday, when asked in a hypothetical free referendum whether they support the Islamic Republic, 75 percent of respondents answered "No," while only 16 percent expressed support for it.
Heating the election oven
To draw parallels with the 1979 revolution, officials invited people to come to the rooftops on Saturday evening, which was the anniversary of the revolution and chant “Allahu Akbar.” Also, on this night, they set off fireworks all over the country, which met with a cold reaction from the people.
Seizing the moment, many people took to the balconies and behind the windows to shout slogans of the Mahsa movement. Notably, the voices of women and young girls resonated prominently among these chants, underscoring their active participation in the opposition's message.
Despite relentless calls for public participation in the anniversary march, the photos and videos circulated depict a significantly limited turnout. Figures ranging from several thousand to tens of thousands of attendees are exaggerated to portray figures in the millions or tens of millions. But evidently, even the use of Qasem Soleimani’s name to bring out a million people did not succeed.
For the 86 seats in the Assembly of Experts elections, only 144 candidates have been allowed to run. It is clear that the elections are a sham and people are aware of this fact.
Nihilist regime
Waiving the hijab requirement during the anniversary march was a surprising deviation also observed last year during the anniversary of the occupation of the American embassy. This move was even reported by hardline media as a good initiative. Additionally, earlier this month and American adult film actress was allowed to visit the country and tour important landmarks. As the founder of the Islamic Republic Ruhollah Khomeini famously stated, "To protect the regime, even Islamic rulings could be suspended."
