Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis claimed responsibility for a double missile strike on a cargo ship in the Red Sea on Monday, the latest attack since November as it blockades the vital trade route.
The Houthis identified the vessel as the Star Iris. While the group's military spokesman, Yahya Saree, stated that the ship was American, maritime-shipping trackers identified it as a Marshall Islands-flagged vessel, owned by a Greek company.
The British maritime security firm Ambrey disclosed that the vessel, reportedly heading toward Iran, was targeted by two separate missile attacks while navigating the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The vessel sustained damage to its starboard side as a result of the attacks, as confirmed by Ambrey.
Since mid-November, the Houthi militants have been launching drones and missiles at commercial ships, claiming retaliation against Israel's military actions in Gaza. While they claim to be attacking either Israeli or US-affiliated vessels, the attacks have impacted international vessels and disrupted global shipping operations. Several companies have been forced to reroute their vessels away from the Red Sea, opting for longer and costlier routes around Africa.
Ambrey stated that the bulker was en route to Bandar Imam Khomeini, Iran. "The group owner and operator regularly trades bulk cargo with Iran, so this was assessed to be the likely destination," the firm added.
Highlighting a potential motive for the attack, Ambrey noted that the group owner of the bulker is listed on the US stock market index NASDAQ. The US has come under fire since the war in Gaza after offering full support for Israel's right to defend itself for the October 7 invasion of Iran-backed Hamas, which sparked the bloodiest war since Gaza came under control of the Palestinian militia.
Space is viewed as the paramount strategic vantage point, stemming from Iran's missile program, whose advancement holds significant geopolitical implications. The inclusion of military satellites in the space program, overseen by the IRGC, underscores Iran's fusion of civilian and military initiatives in space endeavors, mirroring its broader strategic objectives.
Iran uses the Safir and Simorgh launchers and intends to improve its satellite and rocket technology. The funding of the space agency has increased, and extra technical help is provided through partnerships with nations like North Korea, China, and Russia.
Though the Iranian Space Agency is a division of the Ministry of Communication and Information Technology, the Iranian Ministry of Defense, especially through the IRGC, has significant control over the space program. The importance of the program to Iran's military, security, and economic interests is highlighted by this dual supervision.
A noteworthy achievement is the building of the Chabahar Space Center in southeast Iran, which is slated to grow to be the biggest space launch location in West Asia. Its completion sometime in the next decade would further solidify Iran's position as a major actor in regional space operations and is anticipated to improve Iran's space capabilities and promote international collaboration.
Iran's space program is poised for a significant advancement with the establishment of the Chabahar Space Center, strategically located in a southern-most region. This center's proximity to the equator offers a key advantage, providing more speed by harnessing the Earth's rotational speed, which enhances spacecraft lift-off and reduces fuel consumption. Designed to propel Iran's space aspirations, the facility aims to deploy satellites into both geosynchronous and low Earth orbits (LEO). Equipped with cutting-edge launch platforms, processing complexes, and assembly facilities, the Chabahar Space Center represents Iran's ambitious endeavor to overcome geographical limitations and bolster its space capabilities. Expected to surpass existing facilities like the Imam Khomeini Space Center, this new center marks a significant leap forward in Iran's space infrastructure.
Iran ten-year space program
The Iranian Space Agency began its massive ten-year space program in January 2023 with the goal of making Iran a space technology development and launch services leader in the coming years. The program highlights Iran's will to support its space industry by building launch pads, developing satellite infrastructure, and conducting research missions.
With its expansive 14,000 hectares, the Chabahar Space Center is ideally positioned to become the focal point of Iran's space activities. Its advantageous position and special qualities allow for the launching of several kinds of satellites, including as sun-synchronous and low-orbit satellites. The facility is expected to play a crucial role in furthering Iran's aspirations in space research and technology, enhancing its standing in the international space community, and bolstering its standing in the region as the main launch location for future missions.
The international community and Iran’s space program
Concerns over Iran's space program have been raised by Western countries, especially by the US and European powers. The program's possible dual-use character, which links it to the advancement of long-range missile technology, worries the United States. Similarly, believing that Iran's space launch vehicles (SLVs) could serve as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), the EU has voiced concerns about these vehicles. Concerns over Iran's ambitions in space research, nuclear energy, and missile technology also surround its space program agreements with China and Russia.
The United States and its allies have accused Iran of using satellite activities as a cover for its intercontinental ballistic missile program, so endangering the Middle East and Europe, in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 2231. Nonetheless, Iran insists that the missiles it has built are not for carrying nuclear warheads and in line with Resolution 2231, which formalized the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement.
Challenges
Iran's space program faces a wide range of technical, geopolitical, and economic challenges.
Dual-Use Nature: There have been questions over the Iranian space program's possible dual-use nature due to the similarities in technology between intercontinental ballistic missiles and satellite launchers. Technological developments in satellite launchers can also be advantageous for the development of ICBMs, resulting in tensions and international attention.
International Concerns: Iran's space program has sparked worries abroad, especially considering the possible military uses of its scientific developments. These worries have been exacerbated by the deployment of military satellites and the advancement of rockets manufactured domestically.
Technological Restrictions: Iran's space program has made progress, although there are still technological limitations. There have been unsuccessful efforts to launch satellites, demonstrating that there are still difficulties in developing dependable and regular space launch capabilities. To address worries about proliferation, the international community has slapped sanctions on organizations connected to Iran's space program. Iran also faces serious financial difficulties as US oil export and banking sanctions reduce its main source of income from crude exports.
Conclusion
Iran's space program may evolve significantly with the Chabahar Space Center, mainly because of its advantageous location and planned state-of-the-art facilities. Because of its closeness to the equator, it can launch satellites more effectively, using less fuel and improving overall performance. This benefit, together with more advanced facilities than the Imam Khomeini Space Center, will enhance the center's significance in furthering Iran's space goals.
Iran's determination to launch satellites from its territory, demonstrated by the establishment of the Chabahar space port, is met with regional and international opposition due to possible dual-use technology and Western uneasiness with Iran's alliances with China and Russia. Iran claims to be conducting a purely scientific program, but questions regarding potential military uses of the program remain, which might affect how the space program develops in the future.
The recent revelation by the Prana Network of Iran's clandestine arms deal with Russia, valued at $1.75 billion, has sparked concerns about its implications on global security and regional stability. Additionally, Iran's acquisition of the Russian S-300 air defense system in 2016, along with its forthcoming procurement of advanced Russian military aircraft, signals a significant milestone in their evolving defense partnership.
It's worth noting that under Resolution 2231, which endorsed the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran was prohibited from importing and exporting certain missiles, drones, and related technologies without prior UN Security Council approval. However, this resolution expired in October 2023.
This growing alliance has raised concerns about the possibility of Iran supplying precision-guided ballistic missiles to Russia following the expiration of UN sanctions. However, some analysts remain doubtful about Iran's willingness to provide Russia with cutting-edge weaponry, citing concerns about preserving its own military capabilities and its desire for international recognition as a responsible arms trader. Nevertheless, the covert arms agreement between Russia and Iran, alongside their deepening military cooperation, underscores the need for vigilance regarding their actions and their potential impact on both regional and global security dynamics.
Regarding Leaked documents. Theodore Karasik, Senior Advisor from Gulf State Analytics, believes that "This data reveals details of the Russia-Iran relationship regarding weapon systems, despite budget constraints. Despite differences, they collaborate closely, as evidenced by the recent meeting between Russian National Security Advisor Nikolai Patrushev and his counterpart Ali Akbar Ahmadian."
The impact of the arms deals between Russia and Iran on the Middle East
The arms agreement between Iran and Russia has the potential to escalate tensions in the Middle East, leading to increased regional military spending and arsenals. This heightened militarization not only threatens regional stability but also poses risks to American and allied forces when engaging with Tehran's proxies. Additionally, by bolstering Iran's ballistic missile capabilities and potentially supporting Russia's operations in Ukraine, the arms transfer raises concerns about international security and the likelihood of further destabilization. Moreover, the agreement could fuel a regional arms race, undermining efforts towards peace.
Dr. Ariel Cohen, Managing Director of the energy, growth, and security program at the International Tax and Investment Center, and a Senior Fellow at The Atlantic Council, has underscored the economic implications of Iran's arms sales to Russia, raising questions about Tehran's motives and the impact on the Iranian people. Concerns persist regarding the involvement of nuclear weapon technology, potentially further destabilizing the Middle East. Additionally, the exchange of advanced weaponry between Iran and Russia poses a significant threat to global security, necessitating careful international monitoring and regulation to prevent escalating conflicts and instability worldwide.
Challenges and Opportunities
Understanding the challenges of Iran's covert arms trade, particularly with Shahed-136 drones and Russian weaponry, is essential for assessing its impact and requires a nuanced understanding of geopolitical dynamics and risks. These challenges include the potential escalation of war, violations of international law and sanctions, threats to regional stability, and reputational risks for Iran as an arms dealer. However, there are also opportunities for economic gains and the growth of Iran's military industry, as well as the strengthening of the Iran-Russian strategic partnership.
In conclusion, the Iran-Russia arms trade underscores geopolitical maneuvers, with Russia deploying inexpensive drones like the Shahed-136 against Ukrainian forces. This highlights the need for international collaboration to regulate the arms trade and ensure accountability, mitigating the destructive effects of conflict and fostering peace in affected regions. Questions about Iran's responsibility for the harm caused by these weapons emphasize the importance of international oversight in managing arms transfers and addressing broader conflict ramifications, advancing principles of transparency, accountability, and peace in conflict zones.
