After warnings by Armenia of a fresh Azerbaijani military threat, Iran's Ambassador in Yerevan, Mehdi Sobhani, has reiterated Tehran's stance against any territorial alterations in the region.
In an interview with Armenpress, Sobhani emphasized, “The final position of the Islamic Republic of Iran is that we cannot accept a territorial change in any way. Any territorial changes should take place on the basis of mutual recognition of the territorial integrity of both countries, and this remains our final position...the territorial integrity of the countries of the region should be respected."
Expressing concern over regional stability, the Iranian diplomat stated that Tehran finds it “unacceptable” to witness a volatile situation around Armenia.
His comments come as tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to escalate. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian on Thursday rejected Azerbaijan's persistent demands for legislative changes in Armenia, warning of potential "large-scale" military aggression from Baku.
Pashinian accused Azerbaijani leadership of pursuing a "policy of military coercion" to seize Armenian territory and extract concessions. He highlighted Azerbaijan's reluctance to demarcate the border, following a ceasefire violation that resulted in the death of four Armenian soldiers on Tuesday.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on Wednesday maintained his stance, stating that he won't sign a peace treaty unless Armenia revises its legislation, which he claims contains territorial claims on Azerbaijan.
Amidst the tension, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi reaffirmed Tehran's opposition to the presence of external powers in the South Caucasus during discussions with a senior visiting Armenian official.
Iran supports Armenia's stance against Azerbaijani requests for an extraterritorial corridor linking Azerbaijan to its Nakhichevan exclave via Syunik, the sole Armenian region sharing a border with the Islamic Republic.
Lotfollah Dejakam, the Friday prayers Imam of Shiraz has said that the 35 men have realized that they are too old for the Assembly's membership and that they have decided to leave the task to younger clerics.
The AoE has always been a predominantly elder's assembly and photos from the previous and current rounds of the assembly show elderly clerics dozing off during meetings.
Although in the Iranian press the Majles (parliament) elections is in the spotlight, the Assembly of experts election which will be held on the same date, March 1, is the one which is more important as its results affect the fate of succession and post-Khamenei Iran.
On Wednesday, Mohammad Emami Kashani, a 92-year-old senior cleric of the Assembly was said to have been disqualified from running. But reports on Thursday said that Emami Kashani has withdrawn his candidacy because of his medical conditions.
Earlier, Ahmad Jannati, the oldest member of the Assembly at 97 declared his withdrawal from the competition although he still retains his extremely significant post as the Secretary of election watchdog Guardian Council.
Mostafa Faghihi, the editor of centrist Entekhab news website had said that Jannati and others' withdrawal from the Assembly of Experts elections is part of a possible project to pave the way for President Ebrahim Raisi's chairmanship at the new round of the Assembly.
Other observers have also said the same about the withdrawal of dozens of senior clerics from the competition, stating that they would not want to have a relatively younger and definitely less educated cleric as their superior at the Assembly.
Still others believe the dynamics is being furthered by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who wants to be in control of the assembly's leadership. He is also said to prefer to have Raisi as the Chairman of the Assembly so that Raisi could become the next supreme leader or play a key part in naming Khamenei's son, Mojtaba as the successor.
According to a report published by Khabar Online website, hardline clerics in Tehran and Qom have reached an agreement about the list of 11 candidates for Tehran. The clerics in Qom and Tehran gave a list of 16 candidates each, but 5 of the candidates in each list are not on the other group's list. Still this partial agreement among conservatives is interesting as they have not been able to react to a consensus over their lists in the previous three rounds of the Assembly election.
All the 11 candidates shared by Tehran and Qom clerics are middle-aged mullahs previously trusted by Khamenei. They include former Intelligence Minister Ghorban Ali Dorri Najafabadi, Seminary Dean Alireza E'rafi, and Islamic Propaganda Office Chairman Mahmoud Mohammadi Araghi.
The five candidates exclusive to Tehran clerics' list are led by former hardliner prosecutor Ali Razini, but all the five on the Qom clerics' list are less known and relatively younger clerics.
Critics in Iran say that now, even without an election on March 1, the ideal scene is set for Khamenei's favorite clerics to enter the next Assembly of Experts under Raisi’s chairmanship without any challenge when the time comes later this summer.
In the meantime, to save Raisi the embarrassment of being the only candidate in South Khorasan for the region's only seat at the Assembly, the Guardian Council endorsed a hitherto unknown cleric out of the blue to be the second candidate from the remote constituency. However, everyone in Iran knows how the rest of the process works to ensure that Raisi wins the competition if there is a competition at all. This process is what Iranian electioneers call engineering; something in between election rigging and grafting.
Plunging electricity deliveries in warm months and gas in the cold season to major industrial sectors, including petrochemicals, cement, and steel, has widened their idle capacity.
The energy value (heat of combustion) of one cubic meter of natural gas is approximately equal to one liter of mazut or diesel. Despite the Iranian government gaining $4.5 billion from gas exports during the last fiscal year, it had to consume an additional 18 billion liters of diesel and mazut domestically, worth over $9 billion.
Amin Ebrahimi, the vice president of the Iran Steel Manufacturers Association, told the ILNA news website in Tehran that the government has cut gas deliveries to this sector by 30 to 50 percent since November 2023. According to him, the country’s nominal iron and steel production capacity is 46 million metric tons per year (mt/yr), but the actual production volume hardly reaches 33 mt/y due to the energy deficit.
Steel exports rank second after petrochemicals in terms of the country’s non-oil export revenues. According to the Iran Steel Manufacturers Association’s statistics, the country’s steel production declined last summer due to electricity deficits and plunged in January 2024 due to severe gas deficits.
The country’s steel products export value also declined by 5.5 percent to $6.2 billion in the first ten months of the current fiscal year, which started on March 22, 2023. Ebrahimi did not elaborate on how much gas is being delivered to the Iranian steel sector now, but according to a report prepared by the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) and seen by Iran International, the average gas deliveries to this sector were 39 million cubic meters per day (mcm/d) last spring.
According to Iran Steel Manufacturers Association’s statistics, the country’s steel production has declined in last summer due to electricity deficit and plunged in January 2024 due to severe gas deficit.
Industrial sector’s gas demand
According to another report prepared by National Petrochemical Company, seen by Iran International, the country produced only 69.7 million tons of petrochemicals during last fiscal year, while this sector’s nominal capacity is 91.5 million tons. In other words, about 25 percent of the capacity of petrochemical plants was idle, mostly due to gas shortages.
In a related context, Mehdi Mahdavi Abhari, the Secretary-General of the Petrochemical Employers Association, announced recently that Iran lost $800 million in petrochemical exports due to gas supply shortages last year. The National Gas Company’s report shows about 70 mcm/d of gas was delivered to petrochemicals last spring, but the current volume is unclear.
However, Saeed Aghli, the head of dispatching operations at the NIGC, said last week that the major industrial sectors (petrochemicals, steel, and cement) are supplied with 78 mcm/d of gas. The NIGC’s report, seen by Iran International, indicates that the figure was 150 mcm/d last spring. In simple terms, NIGC has declined gas deliveries to the major industrial sectors by 48% to compensate for gas deficits in housing, public, business, small industries, and agriculture sectors, where the demand rose from 225 mcm/d in spring to 646 mcm/d last week.
Petrochemicals share 7.5% of Iran’s GDP and 25% of its non-oil exports. Another sector severely affected by gas shortages is electricity generation, where 256 mcm/d of gas was utilized last spring, but the volume plunged to 120 mcm/d last week. Iran uses a huge amount of very dirty mazut fuel as well as diesel to compensate for gas shortages in power plants and industrial sectors during winters. Oil ministry statistics show the country’s daily mazut and diesel consumption increased by 115% and 45% to 43,000 metric tons and 110,000 metric tons, respectively, during the last four years due to increasing gas deficits. Iran faces a 250-300 mcm/d gas shortage in winters, but Arash Najafi, the chairman of the Energy Commission of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, said on February 13 that the deficit volume is expected to double in the coming years.
Petrochemicals account for 7.5% of Iran’s GDP and 25% of its non-oil exports.
Gas export
Another sector severely affected by gas shortages is electricity generation, where 256 mcm/d of gas was utilized last spring, but the volume plunged to 120 mcm/d last week. Iran resorts to a significant amount of very dirty mazut fuel as well as diesel to compensate for gas shortages in power plants and industrial sectors during winters. Oil ministry statistics indicate that the country’s daily mazut and diesel consumption increased by 115 percent and 45 percent to 43,000 metric tons and 110,000 metric tons, respectively, during the last four years due to increasing gas deficits. Iran faces a 250-300 mcm/d gas shortage in winters, but Arash Najafi, the chairman of the Energy Commission of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, stated on February 13 that the deficit volume is expected to double in the coming years.
