Vahid Jalalzadeh, the head of Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, has criticized Jordan's recent role in intercepting Iranian drones destined for Israel.
The incident, which took place on April 13, saw Jordan's air force joining a US-led coalition downing Iranian drones that violated its airspace, part of an aerial bombardment of over 350 drones and missiles aimed at Israel.
Jalalzadeh argued that Jordan must be held accountable for its actions, which he views as antagonistic toward Iranian interests.
In a covert threat to Israel's allies, he also warned that If Israel utilizes facilities from regional countries and American bases against Iran, there will be a military response. Jordan was among multiple nations including the US, UK and France, involved alongside Israel in defending itself from the unprecedented air assault.
Iran claimed the barrage was in response to an alleged Israeli air strike at the start of the month in which a senior Quds Force commander was assassinated and multiple other high ranking members of the IRGC were killed.
According to a statement from the Jordanian cabinet the day following the incident, Jordan intercepted several airborne objects that had entered its airspace to safeguard the safety of its citizens. “Some shrapnel fell in multiple places during that time without causing any significant damage or any injuries to citizens,” it added.
Jordan, which borders Iranian proxy strongholds Syria and Iraq, increased its defensive measures by requesting the deployment of Patriot air defense systems from the US last year.
The latest developments come amid reports of increased US military aid to Jordan, which hosts hundreds of American troops conducting regular exercises with the Jordanian army.
The registration, filed on March 7, 2024, marks the first time the think-tank has reported lobbying activities in Washington since the first quarter of 2015.
The move follows just months after an extensive investigation by Iran International revealed that the Crisis Group signed an undisclosed deal with the Iranian government in 2016.
Another Iran International expose, published in September 2023, based on thousands of emails from Iranian diplomats, showed that three current and former Crisis Group members were part of the Iran Experts Initiative (IEI), established by the Iranian foreign ministry in 2014 to extend Tehran's soft power.
This network was active while the Crisis Group was attempting to shape US policy on Iran during and after the negotiations for the 2015 nuclear deal that the Obama administration negotiated with Tehran.
The Crisis Group did not answer specific questions on whether the move to hire Mercury was made in direct response to Iran International’s reporting.
“To help achieve our mandate, we have partnered with Mercury to assist Members of Congress from all political parties who want to meet with our analysts who work in conflict zones across the globe,” the Crisis Group’s Elissa Jobson told Iran International in an email statement.
Documents show that Patrick Costello, the firm’s Senior VP in its Washington DC office, will work on the account for Mercury.
According to the firm’s website, Costello is “part of the bipartisan federal lobbying team and leads the NGO/Think-Tank engagement practice” and is a seasoned expert in US foreign policy and national security.
In a subsequent filing, for the first quarter of 2024, the income related to lobbying activities listed was $20,000, for addressing issues related to foreign relations, with efforts directed towards both the US Senate and the US House of Representatives.
In response to inquiries regarding the specific funding source for the lobbying activities, and whether Qatar, one of the NGOs donors, will contribute financially to the lobbying efforts on its Iran file, Jobson told Iran International, “all fees and services provided are publicly disclosed, and Qatar has no role, financial or otherwise, in the engagement.”
The Brussels-based NGO previously rejected Iran International’s reporting, saying that it “mischaracterizes Crisis Group’s mandate and methodology” and that “these accounts distort the nature of the meetings” between its members and the Iranian government.
In its joint reporting with Semafor, Iran International also said that in 2016 the Crisis Group established a formal Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the inhouse think tank of the foreign ministry of Iran, the Institute for Political and International Studies (IPIS), but never publicized it.
Following Iran International’s and Semafor investigations, three Republican lawmakers have asked the US Department of Justice to investigate the Crisis Group for potential violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA).
FARA mandates that any individuals or organizations representing foreign entities in a political capacity must register their affiliations and activities with the Department of Justice. Established in 1938, the law does not necessitate funding from a foreign government for registration. Instead, it concentrates on efforts to influence the media, Congress, or government officials.
In their letter to US Attorney General Merrick B. Garland, the members of Congress say the Crisis Group has undisclosed ties and a formal relationship with the government of Iran, specifically pointing to the 2016 Memorandum of Understanding.
“There is a clear pattern of behavior indicating that the Crisis Group is in fact not an independent organization, but a chief mouthpiece of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the United States. Given this evidence, we urge you to launch an investigation of the Crisis Group without delay for potential FARA violations to protect our nation from malign foreign influence,” the letter said, signed by Jim Banks of Indiana, Elise Stefanik of New York, and Mike Waltz of Florida.
The lawmakers also referred to President Joe Biden’s special envoy on Iran, Robert Malley, who has been placed on leave while his security clearance is reviewed – reportedly for disqualifying personal conduct and mishandling of classified information. The exact cause of his suspension remains unclear.
Earlier this year, the State Department’s Inspector General opened an internal investigation into the steps leading up to and after Malley’s suspension.
Malley, who ran the Crisis Group during Donald Trump’s presidency, worked closely with the three Iran experts who were members of the influence network formed and guided by Tehran.
The IEI members simultaneously worked for top Western think tanks and gave advice to the US and Europe.
Despite the clear evidence of the strike, the Islamic Republic persisted in its state of denial.
What Does Israel's Strike Reveal About Iran's Air Defence System?
According to US sources, three missiles were launched towards Isfahan’s Eighth Shekari Air Base from outside Iran's airspace, breaching its air defense shield. The strike, as shown by satellite imagery, caused damage to the engagement radar, a crucial component of Iran's S-300 air defense systems. The S-300 is a family of Russian-made surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems.
Just a day or two before the attack, media affiliated with the Islamic Republic boasted about Iran's air defense system's capability and readiness to confront Israeli fighter jets and precision missiles by publishing images of Iranian made air defense systems. In recent years, Iran has undergone a notable evolution in its air defense capabilities. As of the end of 2023, Iran boasts the development of 21 indigenous mobile air defense systems. These systems offer comprehensive coverage, spanning from low to high-altitude surveillance air defense systems.
Among these layers stands the Bavar-373 (Belief) long-range air defense system, claimed to surpass both the Russian S-300 and U.S. Patriot systems. The Islamic Republic boldly asserts that the Bavar-373 possesses the capability to detect and engage high-altitude and stealth aircraft, helicopters, drones, as well as anti-radiation, ballistic, and cruise missiles. Similar to the S-300, the Bavar-373 includes a command vehicle, search radar, engagement radar, and up to six launchers.
In 2016, Iran acquired four S-300 battalions from Russia, predating the introduction of the Bavar 373 in 2019. Allegedly, half of one of S-300 battalions is annually redeployed to Mashhad to safeguard Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Yet, with the presence of the S-300 in Isfahan's airbase, targeted by Israeli missile strikes, and the periodic relocation of part of the S-300 battalion to Mashhad during Khamenei's annual visits to the city, one might question Iran's professed confidence in its indigenous air defense.
Underestimation: A Risky Gambit
The precision strike executed by Israeli fighter jets, coupled with the dismantling of the radar engagement system in Iran's S-300 air defense network, starkly exposes the vulnerabilities within Iran's aerial shield. US military sources suggest that the strike was intended to demonstrate Israel's ability to penetrate Iran's defensive systems unnoticed. However, one should not underestimate Iran's determined efforts to bolster and expand its air defense capabilities.
On June 20, 2019, Iranian forces downed a US military surveillance drone flying over the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The Khordad 3 anti-aircraft system was hailed as the hunter.
Some military analysts argue that Israeli long-range missiles were fired from Iraq's airspace onto an airbase in Isfahan. Iran's bold move of arming so called ‘Axis of Resistance’ group has already set the stage for chaos. If the Islamic Republic succeeds in deploying air defense systems to its regional proxies, establishing a defensive stronghold in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and even Yemen, it would create an air defense axis, presenting a significant challenge to the aerial supremacy of Israeli forces and their allies, which were one of the key factors in Israel's success in intercepting 99% of Iran's projectiles on April 12. This journey is well underway, as evidenced by the shootdown of an American MQ-9 Reaper drone, by Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen on November 8,2023 . Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, attribute the likely use of Iranian-made "Item 358" air defense cruise missiles in the attack.
Expanding its arsenal beyond the existing 21 mobile air defense systems, the Islamic Republic introduced two additional defense systems: The Arman anti-ballistic missile system and the Azarakhsh low-altitude air defense system. Unveiled by the Ministry of Defence on February 19, these additions underscore Iran's ongoing efforts to enhance its aerial defense capabilities.
Disregarding the satellite images that prove the accuracy of Israeli military tech, the country’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, brushes off the low success rate of the Islamic Republic's missile launches as “secondary issue”.
What was scarcely mentioned in his meeting with high-ranking military commanders on Sunday was his emphasis on innovation in armaments. He remarked: "We mustn't pause for a moment, as stagnation implies regression. Therefore, innovation in armaments and tactics, along with a thorough understanding of the enemy's strategies, should always remain a priority."
The directive from the Leader of the Islamic Republic is crystal clear: the enhancement of Iran's air defense system extends beyond national borders to include its proxy forces.
