Mehdi Hosseini, Iran's former Deputy Minister of Oil, said oil sales have become easier under the Biden administration as Washington tries to keep gas prices low while the US elections approach.
Hosseini said, "The Americans want gas pump prices to be low and therefore allow Iran to increase its supply." However, former foreign minister Javad Zarif said earlier this week that the US government allowed Iran to break sanctions and export oil in the last three years.
The Iranian hardliners claim credit for the current government's ability to sell more oil despite sanctions, touting their strategies and "energy diplomacy." However, statistics and expert analyses suggest that the increase in oil exports is more attributable to decisions by the White House not to enforce sanctions.
With the US approaching elections, there is a strong need for low gasoline prices to gain votes, providing Iran with an opportunity to boost its oil production, claimed Hosseini.
However, Iran's oil exports, almost all to China, began to increase after a huge drop in 2019-2020, when Joe Biden was elected president in November 2020. Candidate Biden had promised to reverse President Donald Trump's decision to leave the JCPOA nuclear deal and impose sanctions on Iran.
Iran's crude output has risen to approximately 3.6 million barrels per day (b/d), according to the country's oil minister, Javad Owji, the highest production levels since sanctions were reimposed on Tehran's oil sector.
"Our oil production, which was 2.1 million b/d at the beginning of our time in office [in September 2021], has reached 3.6 million b/d," Owji stated during a presentation to the Iranian parliament on Wednesday.
Iran's Acting President Mohammad Mokhber also said Thursday that the country's oil sales capacity had been less than 300,000 b/d when Raisi took office but rose to about 1,800,000 b/d in less than a year and a half.
The additional output and exports to China, which are around 1.3 million barrels a day, generate around $37 billion a year for Iran. Although it is not clear if China pays all cash for the oil or exports good to Iran, the income is the main lifeline for Iran's battered economy.
The reasons for the revival in exports have been debated, with some attributing it to more relaxed enforcement of sanctions by the US, and others to Iran's improved methods of circumvention.
The debate has even become a point of contention among Iranian presidential candidates as they gear up for the country's snap election on June 28.
Conservative candidates and hardliners largely attribute the boost in exports to their own methods of evasion with Raisi administration officials repeatedly pointing to their success in raising exports.
But the 'reformist' camp refutes those claims, with former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif rejecting the conservative narrative on state television on June 18.
"They [hardliners] said 'we taught them how to sell oil.' Not at all," Zarif stated. "When Biden took office, his policy was to loosen the screw. Wait until Trump returns to office, and then we can see what [the hardliners] say."
He also argued that the Biden administration was willing to return to the nuclear deal that former President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from in 2018. However, according to Zarif, the opportunity was squandered due to pressure from both Israel and Iranian hardliners, who pushed the government to escalate the nuclear crisis.
Ramezan Sharif emphasized that the IRGC would remain neutral and abstain from supporting or opposing any candidate but while the IRGC officially denies fielding candidates in Iran's upcoming presidential snap elections, the majority of contenders appear to maintain close ties with the organization.
Even when the president is not affiliated with the IRGC, its influence remains profound. Former President Hassan Rouhani famously dubbed the IRGC a "shadow government with guns," lamenting its extensive control over political, military, and economic realms.
He once characterized them as “a government wielding both military might and media dominance, possessing an unrivaled grasp on power, leaving little room for challengers.”
This election cycle underscores the IRGC's pervasive influence, as evidenced by the strong connections of most of the six hand-picked presidential candidates to the organization through personal relationships or their staff affiliations.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf's association with the IRGC dates back to his youth. He officially joined the IRGC at 19 in 1980 and served until 2005.
He has held various high-ranking positions within the IRGC, including serving as deputy commander of the Basij, leading the Khatam Al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters, and commanding the IRGC Air Force.
During Ghalibaf's tenure leading the IRGC Air Force, clashes emerged with the Army over land seizures. Ghalibaf's forces resorted to violence, resulting in the death of an army soldier.
As Speaker of Parliament, Ghalibaf furthered IRGC's economic interests. In one instance, he reportedly replaced the head of the Central Bank to facilitate IRGC financing during Ebrahim Raisi's presidency in 2023.
In a leaked audio recording from February 2022, conversations among senior Revolutionary Guard generals surfaced, shedding light on a significant corruption scandal. The discussions implicated Ghalibaf during his tenure as Tehran's mayor.
The funds at issue were primarily allocated to the Quds Force, the IRGC's clandestine overseas operations unit, which wields huge economic power in Iran. Still, they became entangled in transactions between the municipality and Yas Holding, an IRGC's Cooperatives Foundation subsidiary engaged in services, dealerships, and subcontracting within the housing sector.
Throughout his term, he oversaw the enactment of the Strategic Action Law to Lift Sanctions and Safeguard Iran's National Interests in the parliament. This law compelled aggressive measures to expedite Iran's nuclear program and limit International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) oversight.
In March, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the IRGC's Aerospace Division commander, praised Ghalibaf's pivotal role in establishing IRGC missile sites, hailing him as "revolutionary" and "indefatigable." He emphasized the need for "jihadist managers" like Ghalibaf in the country's economy.
Ghalibaf's potential presidency would mark the first time a former senior career commander of the IRGC assumes the position under Khamenei. His presidency would likely safeguard IRGC interests in the event of Khamenei's passing during his tenure at 85 years old.
Alireza Zakani
Although not a military figure like Ghalibaf, Alireza Zakani is well-known for his role in leading the IRGC’s Student Basij Organization (SBO).
Alireza Zakani has held various prominent positions within the Islamic Republic, including leading the SBO, serving as a member of parliament, presiding over the Parliament’s Research Center, and currently holding the position of mayor of Tehran.
Renowned for his conservative ideology and often referred to as the "revolutionary tank," Zakani is re-entering the presidential race after withdrawing his candidacy in 2021 to endorse Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last month.
He is subject to UK sanctions due to allegations of serious human rights abuses in Iran.
While not donning a military uniform, Zakani, who served as Ghalibaf’s campaign manager during his unsuccessful presidential bid in 2005, aimed to govern Tehran with military-like tactics, evidenced by his establishment of IRGC and Basij-led camps in the city.
He has also received support from figures like General Esmaeil Kosari, a former IRGC commander and current member of parliament, in controversial decisions like building mosques in parks.
Lotfollah Forouzandeh leads Zakani's election campaign. Forouzandeh is currently Tehran’s municipality deputy for financial affairs. His appointment raised concerns about the misuse of municipal resources for personal political gain.
Forouzandeh held positions such as commander and deputy in the IRGC until 1992; he is also recognized as one of the founders of the Society of Devotees of the Islamic Revolution, a group composed of former Iran-Iraq war commanders who have wielded significant influence in elections since the early 2000s. This group notably contributed to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's rise to power in the Tehran Municipality and the presidency.
Saeed Jalili
Saeed Jalili earned the moniker "a living martyr" following the loss of one of his legs during the Iran-Iraq War while serving in SBO.
Throughout his career, Jalili has held many significant roles, from the Office of the Supreme Leader to Iran's Foreign Ministry and the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC).
These positions include leading Iran’s Foreign Ministry’s Inspection Office, heading the Foreign Ministry’s US Affairs Office, serving as a senior director in Khamenei’s office, deputy foreign minister for European and American Affairs, secretary of the SNSC, and subsequently, the supreme leader’s personal representative on the SNSC.
Jalili, although aligned with the fundamentalist faction, lacks clear organizational ties with the Revolutionary Guards akin to figures like Ghalibaf or Zakani.
A leaked audio revealed that former IRGC Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani was discontent with Jalili's management style. However, IRGC-affiliated media outlets, such as Fars, Tasnim, and Javan, as well as Ofoq TV, have maintained a favorable relationship with Jalili.
Mohsen Mansouri, who is leading Jalili's campaign, has strong ties with the IRGC. As the governor of Tehran province and the head of the province's security council, he appointed IRGC commanders to critical positions. Mansouri also directed resources to the IRGC in his capacity within Jalili's campaign, appointing Rahim Aghdam, a Quds Force commander and associate of Qassem Soleimani, to the team.
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
Mostafa Pourmohammadi, the only cleric approved to run for the presidency in 2024, is notorious among Iranians for his role alongside Raisi on the Death Commission, which sanctioned the execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988.
He has maintained a positive relationship with the IRGC and even appointed an active IRGC commander to governmental positions.
Pourmohammadi served as a cabinet minister in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's first administration. One of his initial appointments was Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, then deputy commander of the IRGC, as his deputy.
Pourmohammadi reportedly revealed electoral irregularities to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei without Ahmadinejad’s knowledge, leading to his dismissal as interior minister in 2008.
Subsequently, he stood in defense of the IRGC against Ahmadinejad's criticisms.
In 2011, when Ahmadinejad referred to the IRGC's illicit activities with the term "Smuggler Brothers" and mentioned illegal docks. Mostafa Pourmohammadi, then head of the General Inspection Organization, asserted that no illegal docks existed in the country.
Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi
Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, a trained physician and former member of parliament, served on its presidium and as the first deputy speaker. He ran for the presidency in 2021 but was unsuccessful. Subsequently, Ebrahim Raisi appointed him as vice president and head of the Martyrs and Veterans Affairs Foundation. This Iranian parastatal organization is sanctioned for channeling financial resources to terrorist groups, notably Hezbollah.
As head of the Martyrs and Veterans Affairs Foundation, Ghazizadeh Hashemi naturally maintained business relations with the IRGC’s Quds Force.
Mohammad Reza Mirshamsi, who leads Ghazizadeh Hashemi's election headquarters, is a relatively lesser-known figure with a history of serving as the political deputy at Imam Hossein University, an institution affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards.
Masoud Pezeshkian
Masoud Pezeshkian is the only ‘reformist’ candidate allowed to participate in this election. A heart surgeon by profession, he previously served as the health minister in Mohammad Khatami's administration.
Though he appears to have fewer connections to the Revolutionary Guards than others, he, along with Ghazizadeh Hashemi, wore the IRGC uniform alongside fellow parliamentarians in solidarity with the IRGC a day after then-US President Donald Trump designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
In December 2022, during a university lecture, he responded to a student criticizing his choice to wear the IRGC uniform by stating, "Without the IRGC, this country would have been divided, and our work would have ended."
"This action sends a strong message that Canada will use all of the tools at its disposal to combat the terrorist entity of the IRGC," he said in a press conference that was also attended by Canada's Justice Minister Arif Virani and foreign minister Melanie Joly.
The Iranian community in Canada has been pressuring the Canadian government to proscribe the IRGC, led by the families of those killed onboard flight PS752, which was shot down a few minutes after take off from Tehran's international airport in January 2020.
"Our government will ensure that there's no immunity for Iran's unlawful actions and its support of terrorism," LeBlanc said.
The measure has been taken under Canada's criminal code, which means the country's law enforcement will be able to charge those who support the group financially or materially.
Hamed Esmaeilion, whose wife, Parisa Eghbalian and their 9 year-old-daughter, Reera were killed when the IRGC shot down PS752 told Iran International, he's very happy but the fight is still not over.
"We hope that there's no change in the decision in the coming years. And we hope that this campaign actually continues on to spread to the rest of the world, to the European Union, to the UK and Australia and other countries," said Esmaeilion.
Esmaeilion, and the families of families of flight 752, have been vocal advocates pushing for the terrorist designation since the downing of the civilian aircraft, and even filed a 200 pages plus fact finding report to the federal government in 2023. It alleged that Iran deliberately kept its airspace open to use civilians as human shields against a possible American attack.
"The most important message is for the people in Iran, for the brave activists," said Esmaeilion.
He said the IRGC terrorist designation impacts all victims of atrocities committed by the Islamic Republic since its inception in 1979.
Potential retribution
Kazem Gharibabadi, the deputy chief of Iran's Judiciary, condemned Canada's "hostile" decision to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization, and said the Revolutionary Guard "is responsible for guarding Iran's national security and confronting terrorism in the region."
Earlier Wednesday, IRGC commander in chief Hossein Salami said Iran has been able to impose its "magnificent power" on its " world enemies" in spite of many decades of "pressure" on the country.
"They seized our ships, so we seized theirs," Salami said. "They attacked some of our ships at sea, but when their ships were attacked, they realized that they couldn't engage with this country."
Canada is advising all Canadians and dual nationals to leave Iran and not to travel there due to heightened concerns over potential retribution.
Some PS752 families posted to X that Canada's foreign minister Melanie Joly sent an email to the families after the announcement, and assured them that the government was determined to protect Canadian citizens against the Iranian government's threats.
The IRGC was formed in 1979 to 'guard' the Islamic Revolution, as stipulated in the force's title. Since then, it has grown to become the most powerful player in Iran's domestic politics and economy, while its international wing, the Quds Force, arms, trains, and often fights alongside various armed groups across the Middle East.
The Canadian government, much like the administrations in Europe, have been grappling with the idea to proscribe the IRGC for many years. Such designation would put the Guards in the same category as al-Qaeda and Daesh (ISIS).
The move in Canada has been a long time coming, said several activists. In 2018, the House of Commons passed a resolution urging the Federal government to list the IRGC as a terrorist entity. The Liberal government backed the Conservative motion, but it still wasn't codified under the criminal code.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had resisted calls in the past to list the organization as a terror group because some Iranians are forced into the organization as part of their mandatory military service. That issue was acknowledged during Wednesday's press conference after a reporter with Canadian media asked.
Canada's Justice Minister Arif Virani said "he remains concerned about it," citing it as a "complex situation."
Virani said individuals would be assessed on a case by case basis.
The Conservatives and the NDP have criticized the Liberal government for delaying the designation.
“As a result of that delay, the IRGC has been able to grow stronger as a result of Trudeau’s inaction,” Conservative MP and foreign affairs critic Michael Chong said in a statement after the announcement.
Strong message
Iranian-Canadian human rights activist Nazanin Afshin-Jam said the announcement was a major step in the right direction that will further protect Canadians and send a strong message.
"My heart is beating fast. I'm so excited. It's a great day for security for Canada. It's a great day for sending a very strong message to people inside Iran that their voices have been heard. And it sends a very strong message to IRGC officials and their affiliates and the whole regime of the Islamic Republic, that crimes against humanity don't go with impunity," she said.
Tara Dachek, who is partnered with Afshin-Jam in the diaspora group the Iranian Justice Collective (IJC) was overjoyed that it "finally happened."
"We [IJC] have had meetings with MPs, members of House of Commons, Senate for the past two years to ask them to recognize the IRGC as a terrorist organization, " said Dachek.
The listing is an important tool to help law enforcement and fight terrorism, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the FDD where he focuses on Iranian security and political issues.
"This allows the Canadian government to better protect the rights of Iranian diaspora, who has legally migrated to Canada and is actually seeking to flee or build a better life, away from the Islamic Republic," said Taleblu.
In late January, two Canadian men, with Hells Angels ties, were accused of plotting to kill an Iranian defector living in the US, with the help of an Iranian national suspected of running a murder-for-hire scheme run by Iran.
The terrorist designation is important because it gives the justice system much more ammunition, according to Taleblu.
It will also effect the IRGC's financing as well, he added.
