Members of Iran's Reform Front attempt to portray Masoud Pezeshkian as a moderate presidential candidate compared to his rival Saeed Jalili. But does he genuinely embody moderation as a regime insider?
“The unhappy, disillusioned majority made a powerful statement in this election. The boycotters turned the poll into a referendum against the Islamic Republic, while those who voted managed to thwart the political establishment’s plans to install their desired hardliner candidate in the presidential office in the first round,” said 52-year-old businessman Hamed in Tehran, who did not vote on Friday, in an interview with Iran International after the poll results were announced.
At least 60 percent of the 61.5 million eligible voters abstained from voting on Friday, according to official figures. However, many believe the turnout was even lower than reported, possibly as low as 20 percent, suggesting that over 80 percent of voters boycotted the election. Although it borders on a conspiracy theory, Persian social media is buzzing with posts about it.
As proof, they indicate that the votes of the four candidates, the number of void ballots, and the total are all multiples of three. “The probability that five random numbers are multiples of three is less than half a percent. The Islamic Republic has multiplied the votes by three,” one of the many tweets that have gone viral on X in the past 24 hours said.
“Some of my friends now argue that we have made our point. Turnout was the lowest in any presidential elections and the reformists must have also realized that we no longer trust them to go to the polls whenever they tell us. They say, given this, we should now vote in the run-off to stop Jalili’s presidency,” he said. "But there are also those who strongly disagree and say we need to take the boycott act to the next level."
Hamed had voted for reformists in every presidential and parliamentary election since the high turnout presidential vote in 1997, when reformist Mohammad Khatami won a landslide victory with 22 million votes (69 %). But he never voted after 2017 when he cast his vote for the moderate Hassan Rouhani whom Khatami had endorsed. Like many other Iranians, he now describes himself as a ‘barandaz’ (proponent of regime change) for the past few years.
This time his resolve to boycott the elections was weakened when Pezeshkian was allowed to run. “Could it be a signal that Khamenei had decided to open up the atmosphere only a little, we asked ourselves,” Hamed recalled.
“We know Pezeshkian’s powers as president would be very limited but there is still a big difference between him and a fundamentalist like Jalili or a corrupt to the bone politician like [Mohammad-Bagher] Ghalibaf,” Hamed added.
After long discussions with close acquaintances, family, and former university friends in WhatsApp and Telegram groups, he and several friends decided not to vote. They even visited a few polling stations on Friday to observe voter turnout. “The turnout was visibly low, even in the evening hours when more people usually go out to vote,” he noted.
“We could regret it later if we didn’t vote and let fundamentalists have an easy win but there came a text message from the interior ministry that said every vote was a vote for the "system" or regime, depending on how one would prefer to translate the Persian word. We didn’t want Khamenei to use our votes as proof of the legitimacy of his rule. So, we decided to go back home without voting,” Hamed said.
According to Hamed, the arguments within his circle of friends and family against voting centered on Pezeshkian's failure to address many of the key issues they, particularly women, expected him to address clearly in the debates. Most also believed that Pezeshkian would have minimal power, if any, to implement meaningful reforms if opposed by Khamenei and the hardline-dominated parliament.
The 34-year-old artist Samaneh spoke of similar arguments in her own circle of family and friends. She was very active in the Woman, Life, Freedom protests of 2022-23 and says she is a ‘barandaz’. “I don’t want to live under any religious rule, let alone one like this which has its arms up to the elbow in the blood of innocent protesters.”
Nevertheless, she decided to vote for Pezeshkian “only for a little improvement” and tried to convince her younger sister and brother who are in their twenties to do so. “Both of them refused. They didn’t even want to hear about it,” she said, adding that to her surprise the outcome of Friday’s poll had changed their minds.
“I can’t believe they are now going around trying to encourage their friends to vote on Friday. Even the thought of Jalili destroying the little that has remained of the economy and social freedoms scares them to death,” Samaneh said.
Arguments like those of Hamed, Samaneh, and their family and friends abound on social media. “Pezeshkian won’t help you overthrow the regime but Jalili can lead us to become North Korea,” Hanieh who indicated that she is a ‘barandaz’ argued in a tweet against those who questioned her motivation for voting and encouragement of others to vote.
Tababaei, who according to her profile is a dentist living between Tehran and London in a short tweet with images of Jalili and Pezeshkian said the choice for her was easy: “It is Iran vs. a branch of the Taliban of Afghanistan.”
Hardliners such as Jalili more openly prioritize Islamic Republic values above all else, while Pezeshkian's supporters are trying to morph him into the already existent duality of reformists vs fundamentalists in the system.
This may be an effort to fabricate a sense of competition and address historically low voter turnout, in successive elections since 2020.
However, so far it has failed, as Friday's first round of the presidential election saw a turnout of under 40%, the lowest since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Nevertheless, their efforts persist ahead of the upcoming runoff on Friday: to instill fear of the competitor, Saeed Jalili, portraying him as the very monster people dread, thereby rallying voters to flock to the polling stations supporting Pezeshkian.
On Saturday, Pezeshkian emphasized, "We must secure ourselves and avert disaster. Let us awaken to the realization that what could transpire is no laughing matter; untrustworthy, inexperienced, and potentially dangerous individuals could transform Iran into a colossal laboratory of bizarre ideas."
Following protests in Iran since 2017, which significantly intensified in 2022 with the "Woman Life Freedom" movement, the popular mood has become clear. Many feel the current establishment falls short of meeting their needs, prompting calls for a new political system.
Against this backdrop, three key political arenas loom large: human rights, particularly women's freedom; the unchecked power of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC); and the economy, deeply entwined with tensions involving the West and Israel.
'Reformists' are endeavoring to portray Pezeshkian as a champion of women's rights, critical of the system's oppression of women, and advocating the lifting of sanctions and fostering better international relations, including a shift in foreign policy. Ultimately, they aim to depict him as a politician opposed to the IRGC rather than a supporter.
A retrospective examination of Pezeshkian’s parliamentary career, which started in 2008 and continues to this day, starkly contrasts with the reformist faction's portrayal, particularly regarding his positions in these critical arenas.
Let's juxtapose the image projected by the reformists who endorse Pezeshkian by examining his historical record and political stance on the ground.
Stance on women's rights:
In May 2010, Pezeshkian was among those lawmakers who supported a bill in Parliament promoting the Islamic principle of publicly shaming women who defy the mandatory hijab. Vigilantes sometimes use this principle to confront others, occasionally resorting to violence in the name of religious duty.
During the 2022 Women's Life Freedom event, Pezeshkian remarked, "This situation only benefits the hypocrites and enemies of the Iranian people, who seek to sow turmoil and unrest and widen the gap between the people and the government."
He also denounced the protests as orchestrated acts of aggression, attributing Iran's most significant uprising since the inception of the Islamic Republic to the influence of the US and Europe.
At the same time, security forces' crackdown on protesters, which led to the deaths of at least 550 protesters, was denounced as a crime against humanity by a UN fact-finding mission.
The bill allowed citizens to be sentenced to financial fines, imprisonment, and exile, which underpins the current violent clashes involving women on the streets of the Islamic Republic.
Despite benefiting from the reformists' current support, Pezeshkian echoes their narrative only partially and consistently references Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's principles as the basis of his plans. Former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif is the leading proponent advancing this constructed reformist narrative. Zarif, who once claimed to have 'zero' power during his tenure, now claims that the presidential administration can have a major role in shaping people's lives.
On Saturday, during a presidential campaign event endorsing Pezeshkian, Zarif remarked, “They [the conservatives] are the architects behind all the oppressive laws, internet restrictions, the Nour Plan, etc."
The Nour Plan is an initiative introduced in Iran in April, focusing on enforcing strict hijab regulations for women; it came into effect following a directive by Supreme Leader Khamenei. This policy has resulted in the violent arrest of hundreds of women across various cities in Iran and has been referred to as "gender apartheid" by the United Nations.
Stance on IRGC:
In 2019, when then-US President Donald Trump designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization, Pezeshkian and his parliamentary peers pushed Iran to escalate tensions with the US. They introduced legislation that became law under the title "Strengthening the position of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps against the United States."
This, in turn, consolidated more power for the IRGC in political and economic spheres, tightening its grip on the Iranian government and other institutions within the Islamic Republic. This also intensified repression, escalated violence against citizens, and heightened insecurity and conflicts with neighboring countries.
Pezeshkian also wore the Revolutionary Guard uniform alongside fellow parliamentarians in solidarity with the IRGC one day after Trump's decision.
During a university lecture in December 2022, he responded to a student criticizing his choice to wear the IRGC uniform, stating, "Without the IRGC, this country would have been divided, and our work would have ended."
Also, even during the current presidential election debates, he openly expressed unconditional and uncritical support for the IRGC, describing their missiles and drones as "a source of pride."
This sharply contrasts with how reformists, led by Zarif, try to portray themselves as opponents of the IRGC.
Zarif had accused IRGC Quds Force commander Soleimani of meddling in diplomatic efforts, including the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed in 2015. He also labeled two prominent IRGC figures as "corrupt and liars."
In an audio file released by Iran Wire on the 2024 parliamentary election, Zarif discussed the ongoing rivalry between reformists and IRGC-affiliated individuals, specifically mentioning figures like Hossein Taeb, former head of the IRGC Intelligence Organization, and Mohammad Ali Jafari, former IRGC commander-in-chief.
Stance on foreign policy:
The third area underpinning many of Iran's current economic and international crises is the ongoing tensions between the Islamic Republic and the West and particularly their ally Israel.
In December 2008, during his tenure in parliament, Pezeshkian and 39 other members proposed a bill, turned into law, titled "Obliging the government to provide all-round support to Palestine," which called for significant Iranian intervention in Gaza.
This plan demanded the Iranian government reassess its political and economic relations with countries supporting Israel, effectively promoting confrontation with a large group of powerful nations. It also sought to prevent Israeli goods from entering Iran and prohibited contracts with companies whose principal shareholders were Israeli entities.
Implementing this plan intensified Iran's political confrontation with Western countries, leading to significant economic costs due to disrupted trade.
Now, as they campaign for the presidency, Pezeshkian and his team steer clear of this anti-Western history. They promote de-escalation and global peace to attract support from many Iranians who despise the government's confrontational foreign policy. In recent economic and political debates, Pezeshkian has repeatedly emphasized the necessity of having good relations with other countries, stating that "we must have relations with the world" and advocating for stronger ties with all nations except Israel.
