Tehran-Moscow relations at historic peak, says Iran
In a move to bolster their strategic alliance amid ongoing tensions with the West and extensive sanctions, Iranian officials are deepening ties with Russia.
In a move to bolster their strategic alliance amid ongoing tensions with the West and extensive sanctions, Iranian officials are deepening ties with Russia.
Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said “the group has been projecting power through the effective use of misinformation” which began with its maritime campaign in November, with multiple unsupported claims of attacks since.
“The group knows its influence to the extent that even when some of its claims about maritime attacks are false. They don't care because they know their growing audience will believe them anyways,” she said.
While the Houthis have had direct hits that severely damaged some commercial ships and killed and wounded international seafarers, there are many attacks which have not been independently verified, with others totally denied.
“With respect to MSC Patnaree III, there's no evidence it was hit, but what we have is data from July 7 that shows Greek frigate HS PSARA engaged four UAVs while providing close protection to a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Aden,” the research shows.
Two UAVs were downed while the rest changed course, according to EUNAVFOR ASPIDES. While the commercial vessel was not identified, it could have been MSC Patnaree III.
One of Iran’s most powerful and well-armed groups with sophisticated weapons and training, she said the Houthis’ maritime operation, instigated by Iran’s Supreme Leader, has been “well-planned". In early November 2023, Ali Khamenei called on Muslim nations to blockade Israeli trade and two weeks later the Houthi attacks began.
“This campaign has become more lethal, and different weapons have been used, with a notable increase in the use of USVs since June 5,” she noted. It has succeeded in massively disrupting a major trade passage with at least 50 percent of companies using it now rerouting on longer and more expensive routes.
“The group has indeed proven that it can disrupt maritime traffic in key shipping lanes, and this threat will continue to grow. This will require a more unified deterrence front with a farsighted attitude that includes diplomacy,” Raydan said.
In research conducted with Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region, they revealed that while the Houthis continue to claim attacks in the Red Sea, including the Israeli port of Haifa, as Israel continues to down drones from both Yemen and Iraq, particularly targeted towards Israel’s southern port city of Eilat, much is to be questioned.
“Such claims, based on available information, appear to be just part of the Houthi propaganda campaign for now,” the research assessed while the Houthis coordinate a propaganda campaign alongside proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon which continues to threaten Israel’s norther port city of Haifa among other targets.
“At least one shipping company has denied a Houthi claim of an attack on one of its vessels in the Mediterranean,” said the researchers.
In May, the Houthis claimed they had targeted the Liberia-flagged LPG tanker Essex (IMO 9403877) in the Mediterranean Sea, a ship linked to the UK-based company Zodiac Maritime, but controlled by Israeli-born shipowner Eyal Ofer.
However, the research shows that according to shipping data from MarineTraffic and other sources, the tanker was not in the area and in fact it was in Egypt on May 23 "and appeared to be operating normally."
Also, that month, the Houthis claimed they targeted Greece-flagged oil/chemical tanker Minerva Antonia (IMO 9380398) in the Mediterranean, but no independent sources confirmed the incident.
“Based on MarineTraffic data, as of July 1, 2024, this tanker was sailing in the northern Red Sea heading to Egypt’s Ain Sokhna after a visit to the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu, a sign that the tanker was operating normally,” the research showed.
The Houthis claim to be fighting in allegiance with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza amid its war against Israel, the blockade beginning with a dramatic capture of the Galaxy Leader in November, along with taking 25 seamen hostage.
While it first aimed to target Israeli linked ships, it has since become a global campaign of terror.
The boldness of the Galaxy Leader attack has given the group a degree of credibility which allows them to continue a campaign alleging attacks even beyond their own range of capability.
Last month, the Houthis made more allegations about attacking vessels in the Mediterranean, which they said was in cooperation with Iran's proxies in Iraq, again denied by shipping operators.
On June 22, the Houthis claimed that they attacked four vessels at Israel’s Haifa port, which was never independently verified, including the Luxembourg-flagged livestock carrier Shorthorn Express (IMO 9167318) in the Mediterranean route to Haifa.
The owner of the Shorthorn Express, Netherlands-based Vroon, flatly denied the claim, telling TradeWinds: “The company would like to stress that [the] crew, its cargo and the vessel are safe and no signs of an attack were noticed. Shorthorn Express is, meanwhile, proceeding [on] its voyage to its port of destination.”
The livestock carrier was at the Haifa port, but shipping data from MarineTraffic showed no unusual movements. “As of July 2, the vessel had left Israel and was sailing in the direction of the Irish Sea, a clear sign that it was operating normally,” the researchers pointed out.
While the Houthis have a wide range of weapons such as ballistic missiles and air-breathing cruise missiles and drones, including the group’s claims that its Sammad-4 and Waid one-way attack drones (OWADs) have ranges in excess of 2,000 kilometers, it is not likely that the Houthis have an OWAD that can reach much beyond 1,000 kilometers.
This makes an attack on Haifa’s port facilities or maritime targets in the East Mediterranean directly from Yemen using drones and anti-ship missiles highly unlikely.
“The distance from Haifa to known Houthi drone launch sites is 2,000 kilometers in a direct line, and about 2,200 kilometers for a more realistic flight path along the Red Sea median line and eastern Sinai desert,” said the research team.
While they could launch from Iraq in cooperation with Iran’s local proxies there, reducing the range required to reach Haifa to 500 kilometers or less, the IRGC would need to play a major coordinating and logistical role in such a franchising operation, they highlighted. While not impossible, it raises questions as to its voracity.
What the Houthis do not highlight, is the success of the interception operations with intelligence sharing via datalink, emails, text messages and telephone hotlines. “Israeli air and missile defenses and those of other countries in the region, as well as the United States, have proved very capable of intercepting any such rocket and air-breathing threats against Israel,” the researchers note.
But Iran's proxy battlefront against Israel could get more complex if it becomes more coordinated with Lebanon’s Hezbollah which has been in a low-level conflict with Israel since October 7 when Hamas invaded Israel.
The biggest of Iran's proxies has launched at least 3,500 projectiles towards Israel since the Gaza war began in a bid to overwhelm Israel’s defenses from the north while the Gaza conflict rages in the south.
The research team warned: “Hezbollah is not known to have anything more than Noor (C-802) and Nasr (C-704) radar-guided anti-ship cruise missiles in its arsenal, with a maximum range of 120 kilometers. However, it likely already has, or may soon have, almost any weapons in the arsenals of the Houthis or the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq.”
During a meeting at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian National Academy of Sciences in Moscow, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani emphasized the importance of the relationship.
"We are now on the path of fighting the totalitarianism and unilateralism of the Western governments led by the United States," Kanaani stated.
Kanaani hailed the current state of Iran-Russia relations as one of the most robust in their history.
"Relations between the two countries are in one of the best historical periods" he reiterated.
He did not mention issues of contention such as Russia's siding with the United Arab Emirates over islands Iran claims as its own.
He also did not mention the stalled Iran-Russia cooperation agreement which Iran has gone to great lengths to say is merely under review.
Emphasizing enhancing bilateral ties, Kanaani highlighted said this week, "We fully support the expansion of cultural relations between our two countries".
A recent report by Chatham House, a British think tank based in London, suggested that the future of Iranian-Russian relations hinges on the stance of the next Iranian president.
Iranian president-elect, Masoud Pezeshkian, set out his government’s foreign policy in , praising eastern powers and attacking the west.
Iran has become a major military partner for Russia, supporting Putin in the war on Ukraine by providing drones used on civilian areas. It has resulted in global sanctions for both countries.
