An Israeli airstrike targeted the suburbs of Beirut on Tuesday, killing a senior commander of Iran-backed Hezbollah, the Israeli military said, raising fears of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalating into a broader regional war.
The meetings came before the swearing-in ceremony of Iranian president-elect Masoud Pezeshkian, highlighting Iran's ongoing support for the proxy militias.
During a separate meeting, Pezeshkian also expressed strong support for Hamas amid its war in Gaza, telling the group's political head Ismail Haniyeh, "We are certain that the resistance of the Palestinian people and fighters will lead to ultimate victory and the liberation of the land of Palestine."
Tehran has openly admitted to providing financial, logistical and training support to Hamas, praising the group's attacks on Israel on October 7 which killed 1,200 mostly civilians, while denying involvement in the specific operations. Hamas is now considered one of Iran's armed militant proxies in the region, alongside Lebanese Hezbollah.
In 2022, Haniyeh disclosed in an interview with Al Jazeera that his group had received $70 million in military aid from Iran. He noted, "We have rockets that are locally manufactured, but the long-range rockets came from abroad, from Iran, Syria, and others through Egypt."
The US State Department has previously estimated that Tehran's support for Palestinian terror groups, including Hamas, amounts to approximately $100 million annually.
Additionally, Pezeshkian met with Mohammed Abdul-Salam, the spokesman for Yemen's Houthi Ansarullah movement. He praised the group's recent actions against Israel and maritime navigation, remarking, "Your actions have clearly put pressure on the Zionist regime and its supporters." Pezeshkian also emphasized the necessity of collaboration among Islamic countries, stating, "We must work with Islamic countries to end the oppression of Muslims."
The Iran-backed Houthis have significantly disrupted the Red Sea, launching missile and drone attacks on commercial vessels. They claim to be acting in support of Palestinians, asserting that their targets are exclusively ships associated with Israel or its primary allies, the US and Britain. However, multiple ships without connections to Israel have targeted with dozens of non-Israeli hostages taken since November.
For several years, the clerical rulers in Iran have been the primary supporter of the Houthis, providing funding, arms, and training amid Yemen's civil war. This support has enabled the group to gain and maintain control over large parts of Yemen, despite facing a much stronger military coalition led by Saudi Arabia.
Naim Qassem, the Shia Lebanese cleric and deputy leader of Hezbollah, is also in Tehran to meet with Iranian officials and attend the oath-taking ceremony.
Since its establishment in 1979, the government in Iran has consistently positioned itself as a strong adversary of Israel and the United States. In the early 1980s, it founded the Lebanese Hezbollah as a proxy force to challenge Israel.
Currently on the brink of war with Israel, Hezbollah has been acting in allegiance with Hamas since October 8, sending 6,400 projectiles towards Israel's northern border in the worst tensions since 2006. Over 200,000 Israeli and Lebanese civilians have been displaced.
Over the past twenty years, Iran has expanded its influence by creating proxy groups in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and the Palestinian territories. It also maintains networks in various other Middle Eastern, African, and Western nations.
Tehran provides Hezbollah, the largest and most powerful of its militias, with extensive financial aid estimated at hundreds of millions of dollars annually, in addition to advanced military equipment and training. Its missile arsenal is believed to be around 200,000. Hezbollah has been designated a terror group by countries including the US and UK.
Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari said on Saturday the rocket used in the deadly attack was an Iranian-made Falaq-1 fired by Hezbollah.
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani dismissed the accusations on Sunday, stating, "Israel's statements will not be heeded by others." However, Kanaani did not make it clear whether he means no Iranian rocket was used in the attack or the Iranian proxy group did not fire any munition at the civilian target.
Israel has vowed to respond to the suspected Hezbollah attack, with the country's national broadcaster Kann News citing officials as saying that the Israeli response to the attack "might lead to several days of intense fighting."
The attack has also sparked widespread reactions across the world.
The White House condemned the attack and blamed Hezbollah for it, saying, "It was their rocket, and launched from an area they control." It added that Washington has been in discussions with Israeli and Lebanese officials since Saturday's attack, which it described as "horrific."
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also said that all signs point to Hezbollah's involvement, emphasizing Israel’s right to self-defense while stating that the United States does not seek an escalation of regional conflicts. At a press conference in Tokyo, Blinken expressed condolences for the loss of life and reiterated the US stance against terrorism.
“There is no justification for terrorism, period, and every indication is that indeed the rockets were from or the rocket was from Hezbollah. We stand by Israel’s right to defend its citizens from terrorist attacks,” he added.
The Saturday attack has left the community of Majdal Shams in deep mourning. Thousands gathered for the funeral of the victims, marking a day of profound sorrow. At the funeral on Sunday, weeping men wearing traditional, red-topped white hats carried 10 white-covered caskets through the crowded streets. Women dressed in black abaya robes cried as they laid flowers on the caskets, with some mourners carrying large photos of the deceased children.
Fadi Mahmud, a 48-year-old resident, in an interview with AFP described the incident as a significant loss for the close-knit community. "It was the first time Majdal Shams had experienced such a loss during the war." "Our community is very close-knit. These children are like children of everybody in the village."
In the early 1980s, Iran established Hezbollah in Lebanon as a proxy force to confront Israel. In 2018, the US government reported that Iran annually provides Hezbollah with an estimated $700 million. Earlier, in a 2016 speech, Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, publicly stated that Iran is the source of his organization’s funding. The financial support bolsters Hezbollah’s substantial military capabilities, including an arsenal of roughly 150,000 missiles and rockets targeted at Israel.
Full-blown Israel-Hezbollah war
The deadly attack blamed on Hezbollah has stoked fears of a full-fledged war between Israel and the Lebanese group, with Lebanon's Middle East Airlines delaying some of its Beirut flight arrivals, and several European countries advising citizens to leave Lebanon.
However, Mohammad Ghaedi, a lecturer in international relations at George Washington University, believes a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah is unlikely due to the prohibitive cost.
“Despite the threats being made, my analysis is that we are far from a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah for several reasons," Ghaedi told Iran International.
He said the 2006 war between Israel and Lebanon cost around three and a half billion dollars. “Today, an attack on Hezbollah could cost more than 50 billion dollars. Additionally, Hezbollah's enhanced capabilities, including precision missiles, position them to retaliate effectively against Israeli targets.”
According to security sources, Hezbollah has preemptively evacuated several key sites in southern Lebanon and the eastern Bekaa Valley in anticipation of a potential attack by Israel.
Ghaedi believes that Israel will likely conduct limited strikes in response to Hezbollah, aiming to resolve political differences within Israel and seek international condemnation of Hezbollah.
He referred to the rocket used in the attack, allegedly an Iranian-made Falaq, as a central point of tension. “If confirmed, it could prompt small-scale Israeli responses within Iran, following Naftali Bennett’s ‘thousand cuts’ strategy against the Islamic Republic."
The conflict might have broader implications, potentially involving other powers such as the United States and Iran. However, Ghaedi finds it unlikely that Iran-backed forces in Iraq and Syria will enter a conflict under current circumstances.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought two major wars since the collapse of Soviet rule in the early 1990s, with Azerbaijan retaking large chunks of its territory in 2020. Its forces last year captured the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, the chief focus of the long-running conflict.
Iran has repeatedly warned that it will not tolerate any changes to international borders in the region.
The reported agreement has been broken up into several contracts and was signed in the past few months, according to the source, who is a senior military official in the Middle East. Iran International has not identified them for their protection.
Iran International has obtained an exclusive list of the military items Iran is set to supply Armenia. That includes drones such as Shahed 136, Shahed 129, Shahed 197, Mohajer, and air defense missile systems like 3rd Khordad, Majid, 15th Khordad, and Arman.
This deal has not been reported before. The foreign and defense ministries of Iran and Armenia did not respond to Iran International’s separate requests for comments.
Update: After the publication, Armenia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not deny the deal, in an official email response to Iran International. "Armenia is currently diversifying its security relations within the framework of international law. We don't have any further comment on this," said a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia.
Armenia's Foreign Affairs Ministry sent another email after that, referring Iran International to an article written in a local Armenian publication, where the country's Ministry of Defense dismissed our reporting as fictitious and false. Iran International reached out to Armenia's Defense Ministry and never received a response.
Farzin Nadimi, an arms expert from the Washington Institute, said a deal of this scale is substantial for the Caucasus nation.
“Iran has sold Armenia drones [before] for example, and some other arms, but nothing at this scale,” said Nadimi.
Armenia’s Ministry of Finance reported that defense spending in 2024 increased by 81% as compared to 2020. Armenia’s defense budget in 2024 was about $1.4 billion, so the amount being allocated to Iran through this deal is about a third of that budget. It is not known how Armenia can afford this, but some analysts believe loan payments could be an option.
The Iran-Armenia arms deal goes beyond supplying suicide drones and air defense missiles. It also involves intelligence cooperation, close military relations, training, and the establishment of bases on Armenian soil, the source has revealed to Iran International.
“I don’t think the region will be happy. I don’t think the United States will be happy,” said Nadimi.
The source said that security cooperation between the two countries, including advancing arms deals, had been discussed during the visits of high-level delegations and technical teams from Iran in recent months.
Iran-Armenia ties have not come without some controversy.
During an interview with Armenian radio on June 28, Mehdi Sobhani, the Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Armenia sent a bold message to the United States, stating “my message is that they [Americans] should not interfere unnecessarily in the relations between Iran and Armenia.”
Safeguard from Azerbaijan: lessons learned from the war
Alex Vatanka, the Middle East Institute’s Iran Program director, said Armenians are looking elsewhere, to France, India, the US and Iran for their security needs.
“Armenia is not in a good place militarily. The last few years have not been good for them. They've lost in two major campaigns to their historic nemesis, Azerbaijan. And they have lost confidence in their historic protector Russia,” said Vatanka.
An arms deal between Iran and Armenia would help Tehran to remain relevant in the Caucasus, said Vatanka.
In 2020, after decades of intermittent skirmishes, Azerbaijan launched a 44-day military operation that became known as the ‘Second Karabakh War.’ Several thousand people were killed on both sides.
Military analysts attribute Azerbaijan’s victory, breaking through Armenian defenses, to drones acquired from Turkey and Israel.
From 2016 to 2020, Israel accounted for 69 percent of Azerbaijan’s imports of major arms, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Turkey made up 2.9 percent of Azerbaijan’s imports of major arms, including missiles and armed UAVs, from 2011-2020.
“Armenia wants to catch up on that front. If Iran can provide drones, why not?,” said Vatanka.
The arms deal between Iran and Armenia would go beyond the two nations and impact Iran-Azerbaijan relations especially after Iran elected an ethnic Turkish speaking as president.
“Azerbaijan will be very, very angry about his deal. But Iran wants to show its dissatisfaction with Azerbaijan, as well, because Azerbaijan is a major customer of Israeli weapons. Azerbaijan and Israel have had strategic relationships. I think Iran will use these deals to show Azerbaijan that its relations with Israel would further move Iran toward Armenia,” said Nadimi.
Armenian security analysts, who are in direct contact with the government, declined Iran International for an interview, citing that they don’t believe that a deal of such magnitude exists. Those experts said Armenia is moving closer to the West and wouldn’t risk its relations with the US, for example, over Iran and sanctions violations, believing that to do so would be a public relations disaster for the tiny nation. One Armenian analysts said he heard that Iran is pushing the deal, but that Armenia declined.
The experts were referring to the Armenian government's efforts to expand ties with the West since Russia became entangled in the Ukraine quagmire. Yerevan has forged military cooperation with France and the United States, including nine days of joint military drills with US forces in July.
The Russian Equation and the War in Ukraine?
Military expert Frederic Labarre from the Royal Military College of Canada said the massive deal could happen for several reasons. He said it signifies a ‘necessity’ for Armenia to defend itself against Azerbaijan, but it could also be a way for Russia to acquire arms through Armenia.
“It could be a way in which Armenia can still endear itself to Russia by being the go between Iran and Russia, especially in the provision of drones and, such equipment, in such a way that. It will be difficult for Western powers or other powers to pressure Armenia,” he said.
Labarre, who specializes in Russia and Ukraine defense and military, hypothesizes that Armenia may be transferring weapons on behalf of Russia.
The Israeli military carried out the airstrike in retaliation for a Saturday rocket attack on a soccer pitch in Golan Heights, which killed 12 minors. Israel and the US blamed Hezbollah for the attack, though the Shiite group denied responsibility.
The Tuesday airstrike killed Fuad Shukr, the "right-hand man" of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah who served as his adviser for planning and directing wartime operations, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said.
Three people have been killed and 74 others injured in the Israeli airstrike, Lebanon's Health Ministry announced. However, it did not identify the victims.
Al-Arabiya and Al-Hadath earlier confirmed that Fuad Shukr had been killed in the airstrike, and his body transferred to Beirut's Great Prophet Hospital.
"Fuad Shukr has directed Hezbollah's attacks on the State of Israel since October 8th, and he was the commander responsible for the murder of the 12 children in Majdal Shams in northern Israel on Saturday evening, as well as the killing of numerous Israelis and foreign nationals over the years," the IDF said in a statement.
"As the Head of Hezbollah's Strategic Unit, Fuad was responsible for the majority of Hezbollah's most advanced weaponry, including precise-guided missiles, cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, long-range rockets, and UAVs. He was responsible for force build-up, planning, and execution of terror attacks against the State of Israel," the statement added.
The White House doubled down on its support for Israel in reaction to the strike that killed Shukr. “Our commitment to Israel’s security is ironclad and unwavering against all Iran-backed threats, including Lebanese Hezbollah,” National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement.
Vice-President Kamala Harris also said she “unequivocally” supports Israel’s right to defend itself "against the terrorist organization, which is exactly what Hezbollah is."
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman strongly condemned the Israeli airstrike, calling it a "clear violation of Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity and a blatant violation of international rules and the UN Charter."
Iran's UN envoy in a letter to the Security Council said Israel's "cowardly" attack must be "unequivocally and immediately condemned by the Security Council."
"The Security Council must also take immediate action in response to this criminal act to ensure that such aggression, which threatens regional peace and security, is not repeated. Israel must be held accountable for these atrocities and cannot go unpunished," the letter said.
Iran’s newly elected president had earlier warned Israel of serious repercussions if it attacks Lebanon.
The hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, largely triggered by the war in Gaza, are their worst since the 2006 conflict.
The clashes have largely been confined to the border area, with both sides previously expressing that they do not desire a broader conflict. However, the situation has raised concerns about the potential escalation towards war.
US attack on Iran-backed militants in Iraq
Shortly after the Israeli attack in Lebanon, the US military also carried out an airstrike targeting Tehran-backed combatants in Iraq who were allegedly attempting to launch one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems, Al-Arabiya reported, citing a US official.
“Based on recent attacks it was assessed that the UAS posed a threat to US and Coalition Forces,” the report said.
The US official did not provide further details, but Reuters cited Iraqi police and medical sources as saying that blasts inside a base used by Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) militants south of Baghdad on Tuesday killed one member and wounded seven others.
The attack came a few days after a US military base in Syria's Conoco gas field was attacked for the second time in 24 hours with more than ten rockets fired from areas controlled by Iran-backed militants.
Over the past ten months, American bases in Iraq and Syria have been frequently attacked by Iran-backed militants, particularly the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of Tehran's proxies which includes groups like Kataib Hezbollah, also a member of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).
