Iran and Israel would try to avoid a full-blown war for fear of the destruction it could bring to both countries, former CIA director and US CENTCOM Commander David Petraeus told Iran International in an interview, amid reports of an ‘imminent’ Iranian attack on Israel.
The catalyst for the urgent visits appears to be the looming threat of an Iranian attack on Israel, predicted to occur 'imminently', according to US intelligence.
A high-ranking Russian delegation led by Sergei Shoigu, the Secretary of Russia's National Security Council, arrived in Tehran. The purpose of the visit, according to the Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, is to strengthen political and security ties and to discuss regional and international issues. However, the timing of Shoigu's arrival coincided with heightened military preparations and international concern.
Meanwhile, Michael Erik Kurilla, the commander of the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), arrived in Israel on Saturday. Although a US official stated that Kurilla's trip was planned before the recent surge in tensions, it is now expected to serve as a crucial opportunity to bolster the international coalition defending Israel.
Earlier, Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder announced that US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin discussed regional tensions with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Sunday.
On Monday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and his Qatari counterpart Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani spoke on the phone to discuss the possible attacks by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel, stressing the need for de-escalation, according to Axios journalist Barak Ravid.
French President Emmanuel Macron said he has spoken with UAE President and Saudi Crown Prince on the situation.
"We call on all stakeholders to show responsibility and restraint to avoid a regional conflagration. No one has any interest in escalation," he said.
During a visit to the underground command center of the Israeli Air Force, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant highlighted the country's readiness to transition swiftly to offensive operations if necessary.
"Our enemies are carefully considering their every move because of the capabilities you have demonstrated over the past year. Nevertheless, we must be prepared for anything – including a swift transition to offense," he said.
Several countries have advised citizens to leave Lebanon and Iran. The situation has led to airlines, including Lufthansa, Delta, and others, suspending flights to the region due to the escalating risks.
In Lebanon, the World Health Organization has delivered 32 tons of medical supplies in anticipation of potential war casualties, reflecting the increasing likelihood of a broader conflict involving Hezbollah and Israel.
"The goal is to get these supplies and medicines to various hospitals and to the health sector in Lebanon, especially in the places most exposed (to hostilities) so that we can be ready to deal with any emergency," Lebanon’s Health Minister Firass Abiad told reporters at the airport landing strip where the aid arrived.
Meanwhile, Beirut airport has seen a surge in people attempting to leave the country, indicating widespread fear of an impending full-scale war.
Iranian officials have at the same time continued their inflammatory rhetoric. On Monday, Ali Bagheri Kani, the Acting Foreign Minister of Iran, held a meeting with Khaled Qaddoumi, the representative of the Hamas movement in Tehran. The visit, part of a broader consultation with various ambassadors and foreign mission heads in Tehran, underscores Iran's intention to launch the attack very soon.
Kani emphasized the “moral imperative” to oppose what he described as the "occupation of Palestinian land and the genocide of a nation," framing the situation as one where indifference and appeasement would only “enable further evil.”
Speaking to his Bahraini counterpart, Bagheri Kani said Iran would be "rewarding" Israel if it remains silent following the killing of Ismail Haniyeh. "Therefore, the Islamic Republic considers reciprocal action to be its right, based on international rules and norms," he said.
Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, criticized Israel's recent actions, calling for a harsh response to what he termed as an Israeli mistake.
"If the Israelis receive a firm response, they will understand that killing Haniyeh was a mistake… The Israelis are constantly making calculation errors, and they have repeated this mistake once again," he said.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani also underscored Iran's determination to retaliate, emphasizing that no external messages were needed to justify their actions.
Backed by the US and an international coalition, Israel braces for a potential Iranian assault, similar to that created in the face of the April 13 bombardment towards Israel. At the time, most of the 350 projectiles were intercepted.
The Arbaeen ceremony, marking the end of the 40-day mourning period following Ashura—the religious ritual commemorating the third Shia Imam, Hussain ibn Ali, grandson of Prophet Muhammad, who was killed in 680 AD—is one of the world's largest annual gatherings. Iranian officials say that around four million people travel to Iraq for the event.
Criticism was sparked by the announcement that the newly appointed Vice-President Mohammadreza Aref had ordered 4 trillion rials (around $650,000) to support the event which culminates with ceremonies in the Iraqi cities of Karbala and Najaf on August 25 this year.
The money will be spent to "prevent unforeseen incidents, contagious diseases, and heat strokes at border points and along the pilgrimage path.”
“Why? Arbaeen was not this government’s promised concern. Leave Arbaeen to the people,” Mohammad-Taghi Fazel-Meybodi, a reformist cleric, posted on X, arguing that the “justice” promised by Pezeshkian and his government would be allocating the budget for the education of children in Sistan and Baluchestan province where many children are deprived of an education.
In a tweet Sunday, Iranian journalist Fateme Karimkhan contended that the negative reactions to the expenditure were unfounded. “More than four million Iranians will participate in the Arbaeen Walk and the government would have been responsible to make plans for their protection even if they were to take a domestic route,” she argued.
Most Iranian pilgrims travel to the border, where free parking facilities are provided, and take the walk to the cities of Najaf and Karbala from there while some others fly directly to these cities.
The Islamic Republic has made extensive plans and allocated huge sums in the past decade to encourage and fund the annual event as a show of Shia political power and influence.
Hossein Tayebifar, Acting Representative of Supreme Ali Khamenei in the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), said on July 28 that the event was “the biggest deterrent operation in the world against the conspiracies of the enemies of Islam.” Some officials and clerics say the Arbaeen gathering is one of the manifestations of the Shia “soft power’.
The cost to the public includes massive budgets for infrastructure works such as building and maintenance of roads and service stations as well as provision food, water and field and mobile hospitals along the main routes and in Iraq, and mobilization of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), the regular army and other bodies to provide the security of the event, and state propaganda.
The government also allocates Iraqi currency at cheaper rates and no-interest loans to pilgrims to encourage more people to participate. As in the past few years, the government will sell 200,000 Iraqi dinars (around $120 at open market rates) to pilgrims at the discounted rate of 370 rials to the dinar against 450 rials in the open market.
Many government organizations, municipalities, and city councils separately allocate special budgets for the event. The City Council of Mashhad, for instance, approved a budget of 150 billion rials ($5 million) for services in the Iraqi holy city of Najaf in 2023 and dispatched over 500 city cleaners and 350 bus drivers there.
Other perks include ‘pilgrimage leave’ for civil servants and free internet and roaming mobile services during the event.
If four million or more participate in the event as predicted, the discount in foreign currency rates and the loans could cost the government hundreds of millions of dollars or more depending on the number of participants.
It was also revealed last week that the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs had ordered various government agencies as well as the government retirement fund to contribute to the costs of holding the procession.
“I declare it here that I’m not happy with using the assets of the retirement fund, even as much of as one rial, for anything other than what the funds were established for,” a retired teacher posted on X. Others have pointed out that those who benefit from the perks of Arbaeen should be mindful that any money taken from the fund without their consent will be ‘haram’ - or religiously forbidden.
President Pezeshkian has also ordered all government bodies involved in the matter to abide by their commitments but has also suggested that his government wants to minimize its own role in holding the event.
“We can increase people’s participation [in supporting the event] and the government will withdraw as much as possible ... Where people cannot help, the government should assist and support them. There is no reason for the government to get involved and create more problems where people can help,” he said Saturday at a meeting of the ‘Arbaeen Taskforce’ formed a few years ago of which the vice president and several ministers are members.
The cold war between the two countries heated up a few more degrees last week, when Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. Iranian officials, including the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, promised a harsh response that many believe would happen sooner rather than later.
“I think [the Iranians] have to respond,” Petraeus told Iran International's Marzia Hussaini, “this is an enormous blow to Iran's honor… It's a huge intelligence failure and… a security failure. So, they have to respond. But I don't think that Iran wants to get into a real direct back and forth war with Israel… And frankly, I don't think Israel wants to get in a real full-on war with Hezbollah or with Iran… I don't think they want to get into this with each other, because the damage to both sides would be very, very substantial.”
Governments in the region and beyond have intensified their diplomatic efforts in anticipation of Iran’s attack that they fear could spiral the cycle of retaliations out of control and drag them into yet another war in the Middle East. Little is known of the scale and the nature of Iran’s promised ‘revenge’ at this stage, but many fear that it could be more serious than the last retaliatory attack in April.
“There's a whole menu,” General Petraeus said on the potential targets of an Iranian operation. “I'm sure they're looking at everything from trying to hit a military site…all the way up to hitting critical infrastructure or a major port or something like that. If that actually was to succeed, Israel would have to respond in a very massive way, not unlike the way that they responded to the Houthi drone attack… and they did enormous damage to the port of Hodeidah in Yemen.”
The current round of escalation began last Wednesday when Haniyeh was assassinated while in Tehran for the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Fingers were immediately pointed at Israel, which has held to its customary silence on such matters in the face of the almost universal belief that the Israeli secret services were behind the assassination.
“My sense is that the Israeli intelligence services, once again, have demonstrated how thoroughly they have penetrated different elements inside Iran,” Petraeus said about the operation that killed Haniyeh. “The most plausible explanation that I have heard of how this was carried out is that it was a result of a bomb planted months ago in the guest house where Haniyeh ultimately stayed… This is really quite extraordinary in a country that, in many respects, is viewed as a denied space to other intelligence services.”
Iranian officials were largely silent on the details of the attack that had killed Haniyeh. It was the New York Times that first reported the ‘bomb’ scenario. The assassination has put the IRGC in the spotlight, as many inside Iran, even among former officials, criticize the intelligence apparatus and call for “investigation” and “clear answers” over security lapses that allowed the assassination.
Iran’s posture would not change with Pezeshkian
Gen. Petraeus was asked by Hussaini about the outlook of the conflicts in the Middle East and whether or not Iran’s new administration under Pezeshkian might be able to change things.
“The really concerning aspects of Iran, the drones and missile that they're selling to Russia, support for these malign actors…and armed forces that they support in Gaza, Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, Shia militia in Iraq and in Syria, Houthis in Yemen, I don't think he has any control over that,” Petraeus said. “What he might be able to do, would be to reduce the role of the religious police in enforcing the hijab and that actually could provide some degree of relief for the people. It's possible he could carry out limited reforms of the economy.”
Pezeshkian has indeed promised to address Iran’s worsening economic situation. However, many experts inside Iran say it’s next to impossible to effect meaningful change without a drastic shift in Iran’s foreign and nuclear policy that would relieve the country’s economy of sanctions.
But General Petraeus was not too optimistic about a breakthrough in the nuclear front, warning that the next US administration may have little incentive to get softer with Iran.
‘Tougher’ policy under Trump or Harris
“I suspect that the policy gets much tougher after the election, regardless of who is elected,” the former CIA director said. “Donald Trump has said that he will reimpose some of the sanctions… I think that a Harris presidency will do the same. The truth is right now, in an election year, you're worried about the price of gasoline at the gas pump, and if they, for example, impose sanctions that reduce the ability of Iran to export 1.5 million barrels of oil and distillates, the price of gas is going to go up.”
Petraeus called Iran an “enemy” whose ultimate goal is to push the United States out of the Middle East. He warned, however, that that may not be a real option for any American administration.
“This continued effort of the US to leave the Middle East is like Michael Corleone trying to leave the mafia. You just keep getting sucked back in, and you might as well acknowledge that and determine what is the most effective and efficient force structure required to ensure our objectives in the region, and then maintain that, sustain it and stop scaring all the people in the region who are afraid that we're going to leave,” he said.
