Experts express alarm over Pezeshkian government's behavior
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during a cabinet meeting on August 28, 2024
Concerns about how President Massoud Pezeshkian's cabinet has been operating since taking office are steadily increasing, especially regarding inequality in areas such as media, access to Internet and treatment of men and women in Iran.
In his first televised interview as President, Masoud Pezeshkian attempted to maintain the persona of a relatively candid politician but carefully sidestepped major issues and questions.
Pezeshkian made only brief mention of the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy, including its significant dispute with the West over its nuclear program—a conflict that has positioned Iran as a nuclear threshold power but has also impoverished the nation economically. The president merely acknowledged, in a single sentence, that the economic crisis was tied to both domestic and foreign factors.
Notably, Pezeshkian refrained from mentioning Israel, the United States, or the Middle East crisis, thereby avoiding the usual ideological rhetoric against "the enemies."
Five weeks into his presidency, Pezeshkian was somewhat candid in listing the symptoms of Iran's current challenges but stopped short of addressing the fundamental causes. He highlighted issues such as delayed payments to wheat farmers, energy shortages, environmental crises, and the underpayment of teachers and nurses—symptoms of the country’s deeper problems.
While he emphasized the need for national accord, Pezeshkian did not discuss the importance of media freedom or the release of political prisoners. He spoke of respecting diverse opinions but overlooked the harsh sentences handed out for even mild criticism of the clerical government.
Rouydad 24, a major reformist-leaning news website in Tehran, published a critical analysis of Pezeshkian’s interview, stating, "The president's first address to the public can hardly be described as a success in terms of appeal, though it wasn't a failure either. He candidly addressed some of the country's most pressing issues, focusing on justice, while skillfully avoiding topics related to problems surrounding the concept of freedom."
Pezeshkian also failed to mention the recent death of Mohammad Mir-Mousavi, an Iranian citizen who died from beatings while in police custody in Lahijan. He skirted around issues such as the hijab mandate and severe internet restrictions, insisting that such policy matters are under discussion and that experts will devise solutions. This led Rouydad 24 to conclude that the president’s remarks were "short on freedom."
On foreign policy, Pezeshkian largely avoided the topic, neglecting both its role as a primary cause of Iran’s economic woes and its reinforcement of the regime’s anti-Israel and anti-West rhetoric. Although Pezeshkian is scheduled to attend the UN General Assembly in New York later in September, he offered no hints about any specific diplomatic plans.
He did emphasize the importance of engaging the Iranian diaspora, who could potentially invest billions of dollars in the country, helping to alleviate the current fiscal crisis. However, he failed to address the regime’s policies that have driven millions of the most educated and financially capable Iranians out of the country.
Lovingly restored luxury classic and vintage cars, often showcased at events across the country, evoke nostalgia for many Iranians, reminding them of the 'good old days' when a Western lifestyle was within easy reach.
Unlike Cuba where classic cars are almost exclusively American-made imports before the country’s 1959 Revolution, there are around 7,000 classic American, British, and other cars in Iran most of which date back to the 1960s and as late as the Islamic Revolution of 1979.
To the enthusiasts, these cars and vintage imported home appliances such as fridges evoke nostalgic memories of the 1970s oil boom and huge imports of luxury items.
While Western exporters and manufacturers rushed to get a market share in the 1970s Iran with a booming economy and open-door economy, things drastically changed in 1979 when a coalition of Islamist clerics and anti-West leftists took over the country.
In memory of Iran Transam event
Many classic and vintage cars have been meticulously restored and are often displayed in various cities at special events organized by enthusiasts’ clubs. Almost none, however, are in active use because of a 2007 pollution ban and fuel restrictions resulting from fuel rationing.
Owners of a few hundred of these cars have managed to obtain “historical” plate numbers that allow them to drive them at special events or to sell them on but many can neither be used nor sold.
A vintage Mustang displayed at classic car show in Iran
The Islamic Republic also has a Classic Car Museum where the luxury and several truly one-of-a-kind cars belonging to the former royal family are on display. These include a gilded Pierce Arrow A built for the founder of the Pahlavi Dynasty, Reza Shah, and a gilded Chrysler K-300 made for his son Mohammad-Reza Shah.
In the 1970s, the streets of major Iranian cities were lined with Cadillacs, Chevrolets, Mercedes, Jaguars, Alfa Romeos, and other luxury cars, while ordinary citizens drove their affordable, locally assembled Paykans (Hillman Hunters), purchased on credit with small monthly payments.
Cars belonging to the former royal family at the National Automobile Museum
Many luxury foreign cars pre-dating the Islamic Revolution were shipped to the country during the oil boom of the 1970s by students studying abroad and government officials. These people were allowed to ship a car home tax-free when they returned home, for personal use or to sell at a good profit. In the late 1970s, those who traveled to Europe could also buy a car and drive back to avoid full import taxes.
In May 2022, Iran's Motorcycle and Automobile Federation became the 30th country to register its vintage cars with the Federation International des Vehicules Anciens (FIVA), a partner of UNESCO with consultative status, making it possible for the owners to use the federation’s international identification facilities for global registration of vintage cars in Iran.
Traffic in Tehran circa 1960
But when it came to American cars, besides imports, several models of Cadillacs, Buicks, and Chevrolets were assembled in Iran by Iranian manufacturers in the 70s.
Buick Sky Lark sedan, for instance, was assembled by General Motors Iran (now Pars Khodro) between 1975 and 1979. The same company also rolled out its first Chevrolet Nova in 1976.
It was nearly two decades and a revolution later that Japanese, German, Korean, and French companies began producing Nissan, Mazda, Mercedes Benz, Kia, Hyundai, Peugeot, and Renault in Iran.
The UN sanctions imposed on Iran since 2005 brought these to a standstill. Despite the lifting of these sanctions in 2016, European and East Asian manufacturers have avoided investment in Iran and only Chinese car manufacturers have been active in the country.
Iran's Judiciary on Saturday handed a total of 12 years in prison to Iranian blogger Hossein Shanbehzadeh who was arrested in June after posting a single dot in response to a tweet by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Shanbehzadeh posted the dot in May in a seemingly innocuous move but was arrested a few weeks later, after his reply garnered significantly more likes than Khamenei's original tweet, drawing widespread attention. His temporary detention order was extended in July for another month.
On August 31, his lawyer announced he has been sentenced to a total of 12 years in prison for spurious chargesthat are usually leveled by the Islamic Republic's Judiciary against activists to keep them jailed for long terms and intimidate others.
Shanbehzadeh, known for his candid critiques and social media presence, has been sentenced to five years in jail for "pro-Israel propaganda activity," four years for "insulting Islamic sanctities," two years for "spreading falsehoods" on social media, and one year for "anti-regime propaganda activity," his lawyer Amir Raisian told Shargh newspaper on Saturday.
Although sentenced to a total of 12 years, he is required to serve the longest term, which is five years, Raisian explained.
According to the lawyer, the Judiciary has not provided any evidence to prove that the defendant committed "pro-Israel propaganda activity". Raisian says the charge has been leveled against him based on his "private chats".
For his other charges, Raisian said the court cited his support for other political prisoners, portraying the country's situation negatively, using the hashtag "No to Execution," supporting the removal of mandatory hijab, creating a negative media atmosphere against Iran's elections, and expressing joy at the death of Iran's former president, Ebrahim Raisi, as evidence.
The lawyer says he will consider appealing the sentence after discussing it with his client in prison.
Shortly after his arrest in May, Shanbehzadeh's X account was deactivated, likely to prevent its misuse by security agencies, but his name trended on Persian-language X for hours as users highlighted his influence and fearless commentary.
Shanbehzadeh had previously been imprisoned in connection with the 2019 protests on charges of "insulting the sanctities and the leader of the Islamic Republic." His arrest this time led to accusations by IRGC-linked media, with reports claiming he was a "fugitive Mossad agent" with ties to Israeli intelligence and a history of insulting religious figures. The Ardabil prosecutor's office further alleged that Shanbehzadeh had been in contact with high-ranking Mossad officers and was arrested when trying to flee the country through northwestern borders.
In response to these accusations, Shanbehzadeh's family refuted the claims as "unjustifiable," emphasizing that he has always used his real identity on social media. They also pointed out that the charges were leveled just 24 hours after his arrest, without him having access to a lawyer.
The arrest has drawn outrage from social media users, many of whom link it directly to the viral comment Shanbehzadeh made under Khamenei's tweet. Chess grandmaster and Putin critic Garry Kasparov even responded to the news with a single dot on his X account.
Shanbehzadeh's case has raised alarms about Iran's history of using espionage charges against its critics, drawing comparisons to other high-profile cases, such as that of Maziar Ebrahimi, a businessman falsely accused of spying for Israel.
In recent weeks, Iran has been consumed by concerns over a potential gasoline price hike. This anxiety stems not only from economic fears but also from the deep-seated distrust many Iranians have toward their government.
At the center of this storm is the newly installed Pezeshkian administration, which has sent mixed signals about its intentions, further exacerbating the public's concern.
Abdolnaser Hemmati, the Minister of Economy, has tried to calm the waters, stating in a televised interview that no shocking economic measures should be taken, as society cannot bear the brunt of a gasoline price hike or other economic shocks. He emphasized that “any decision to raise gasoline prices must take into account its inevitable inflationary effects.”
But how long can the government spend billions of dollars, selling the cheapest gasoline at around 2 cents a liter or less than 10 cents a gallon, especially when it must import some of it to make up for the shortfall in domestic production.
Yet, Hemmati's words stand in contrast to those of the head of government, Massoud Pezeshkian. In a meeting just days earlier, the new president made it clear that he sees no logic in continuing to subsidize gasoline. “There is no logic in buying gasoline at the open market dollar rate and selling it at a subsidized price,” he said, questioning whether the current policy could continue. His comments only deepened the sense of uncertainty and fear that a price increase might be imminent.
These contradictory remarks have left Iranians wondering what to expect. On one hand, Mohammadreza Aref, First Vice President, reassured the public that the government would not make “any hasty decisions” regarding a gasoline price increase. On the other, Pezeshkian's previous statements, including those made during his election campaign, indicate a belief that the current subsidy system is untenable. In a conversation with Ali Khamenei's website, Pezeshkian argued that Iran’s energy imbalance, where gasoline is purchased for billions of dollars and sold at a fraction of its cost, cannot continue indefinitely.
Violent protests shook Iran in November 2019, when the government suddenly tripled gasoline prices.
Pezeshkian’s inconsistent messaging, particularly during the election debates, has only added to the confusion. While he initially supported removing subsidies and raising prices to 250,000 rials (about 42 cents) per liter, he later backtracked, saying that his remarks were taken out of context and that, in governance, such decisions must be left to experts. However, these contradictions have done little to quell public fear, especially given Iran’s recent history.
The specter of past fuel protests looms large. Under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the quadrupling of fuel prices led to widespread unrest, with angry citizens setting fire to gas stations in Tehran. Similarly, Hassan Rouhani’s decision to triple gasoline prices sparked protests across the country, resulting in the deaths of nearly 1,500 people as the government suppressed dissent.
Currently, rationed gasoline is sold at 15,000 rials (2.5 cents) per liter, while non-rationed gasoline is sold at 30,000 rials (5 cents) per liter. For many, who earn less than 200 dollars per month a large increase could push an already struggling population to the brink.
Some believe that the Pezeshkian administration’s indecision is not just a political misstep; but it is a recipe for disaster. The country’s economic situation is dire, and people’s livelihoods are hanging by a thread. Rouydad24 news website in Tehran wrote on Saturday that “Any sudden price hike could lead to irreparable damage.”
As economic expert Mehdi Robati noted in a recent tweet, “Analyses based on the increase in gasoline prices and seeing this issue from a one-dimensional perspective are a banana peel under the feet of the Islamic Republic and will not bring any benefit to the country.”
Moreover, public trust in the government is at an all-time low. Many Iranians believe that if there were no fire, there would be no smoke—meaning if the government truly had no plans to raise gasoline prices, there would be no reason to discuss it. Instead, as reported by Rouydad 24, it appears that some advisors are attempting to prepare the public: shock them with the prospect of a significant price hike, only to then offer a gradual increase as a “compromise.”
This strategy is unlikely to succeed. The anger is palpable, with people expressing their discontent on social media. One viral video shows a farmer lambasting Pezeshkian’s comments, saying, “It’s not logical for you to increase gasoline prices and make us villagers and farmers poorer and more desperate by the day.”
Observers say the contradictions within the Pezeshkian administration are more than just political blunders—they are fuel for a fire that, if ignited, could engulf the nation in unrest once again.
Iran's domestic economic issues, marked by fragmented growth and the dominance of powerful "mafias," are deterring investment, according to Sirous Talari, a board member of the Iranian & Foreign Joint Venture Investments Association (IFJIA).
"The economic mafia in this country swallows all resources, infiltrating every industry," Talari told the state-affiliated ILNA news agency, emphasizing that these internal challenges, alongside international sanctions, are significant barriers to private sector investment.
Talari also pointed out that while some Afghan nationals are making relatively small investments between $200,000 and $15 million, "they are doing so primarily to secure residence permits in Iran." He added, "Beyond these cases, we have not seen significant demand for larger or more substantial foreign investments in Iran.”
Up to 80 percent of Iran's economy is controlled by the state, in conjunction with the religious establishment. This has bred nepotism, inefficiencies and corruption at all levels. At the same time US economic sanctions have handicapped oil exports and international banking relations, drastically reducing the government's revenues from foreign trade.
In recent years, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an international financial watchdog, has blacklisted Iran for failing to meet transparency standards and prevent money laundering and terrorism financing.
However, in May, Mohammad Khazaei, Secretary-General of the Iranian Committee of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), acknowledged that while issues like FATF are important, they are not the only obstacles to foreign investment in Iran.
During Iran’s presidential debates in June, President Masoud Pezeshkian argued that Iran's international isolation must end and that foreign investment is essential for economic improvement.
Pezeshkian emphasized that Iran needed $200 billion in foreign investment to pull its battered economy out of a crisis that has worsened in the past six years.
However, according to Talari, Pezeshkian's administration may face significant challenges in achieving these goals, noting that they "cannot be implemented in the short term."
In a commentary in Etemad newspaper on Monday, columnist Abbas Abdi argued that addressing inequality is the greatest challenge facing the Pezeshkian administration. He further cautioned that failing to tackle these disparities could push society into a dangerous imbalance.
Although Abdi belongs to the broader ‘reformist camp’ and is sympathetic to Pezeshkian, he felt necessary to warn the new president, during his political honeymoon, to become more sensitive to the urgent need for change. Although Pezeshkian sometimes sounds like a reformist, he also acts in a conservative manner with full deference to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
He noted that these inequalities are evident in areas such as the economy, regional development, water supply, environmental issues, budget allocation, employment, and retirement. If left unaddressed, they are likely to strain the government's relationship with the public and widen social and political divides in society.
Abdi warned that these inequalities are becoming increasingly severe, and the government's frequent mismanagement of them is creating social and political problems. He further emphasized that many of these issues have straightforward solutions, but if mishandled, they risk spreading to other areas and exacerbating the situation.
Abdi reiterated that addressing these inequalities requires a coordinated effort from all branches of government, as they cannot be resolved single-handedly. He also blamed previous administrations, including the Raisi government, for contributing to these issues. According to Abdi, Raisi's Minister of Economy, Ehsan Khandouzi, mentioned that Raisi's ministers raised concerns, but their warnings went unheeded.
Abdi emphasized that the government is duty-bound to do its utmost to resolve these problems and restore the people's trust.
in an open letter to Pezeshkian that the government should avoid turning the people's hopes into a mirage.
Iranian entrepreneur Mohammad Bahrainian also wrote
He wrote, "Pezeshkian's presidential candidacy and his promise to improve the country's situation by appointing experts to key positions gave Iranians a renewed sense of hope. However, the plans presented by the new government's economic ministers show no sign of change or a path out of the country's problems." He continued, "What we've heard so far is merely a repetition of the same flowery, run-of-the-mill statements with no sign of innovation on the horizon. We've been hearing these statements for decades, yet nothing has changed."
The entrepreneur advised that Pezeshkian's ministers should surround themselves with a team of experts in their respective fields to scrutinize decisions before they are announced or implemented. These experts, Bahrainian emphasized, should be recognized for their expertise and have a track record free of corruption.
This advice followed a series of appointments by the new government that appeared misaligned, seemingly made without consideration of individuals' expertise or track record.
The growing concerns among experts about Pezeshkian's government and its operations are alarming. If Pezeshkian continues to disregard these warnings, observers believe that Iran and its government could face a perilous situation.