Iran International
A recent directive limiting Afghan refugees' access to bakeries has sparked controversy in Iran, highlighting growing tensions over the rising influx of Afghan migrants against the backdrop of a struggling economy.
In an audio message to Iran International, Amjad Amini, Mahsa Amini's father, expressed his family's wish to hold a memorial service. He noted that he has received countless messages and calls from the public about organizing a commemoration for Mahsa, emphasizing that "everyone wants" to gather at her gravesite.
Meanwhile, pressure on political and civil activists is intensifying ahead of the second anniversary of the Iranian revolutionary uprising.
Mahsa Jina Amini was arrested by the so-called morality police on September 13, 2022 over the state’s mandatory hijab law. Amini was beaten while in their custody and later succumbed to her injuries three days later at Kasra Hospital in Tehran.
Following her death, protests initially erupted in Tehran and quickly spread to various other parts of Iran – quickly dubbed the "Women, Life, Freedom" movement.
It’s estimated, by several human rights organizations, that during the nationwide months-long protests, at least 551 protesters, including 68 children and 49 women, were killed by the state’s security forces.
In recent days, as the second anniversary of the Iranian uprising approaches, the Islamic Republic's security agencies have intensified their crackdown on political, labor, and civil activists. This latest wave of repression and arrests has been particularly severe in Kurdistan, Mahsa Amini's home province, more so than in other parts of Iran.
On September 13, the Coordinating Council of the Iranian Teachers' Trade Associations reported that 14 labor activists from the teachers' union in Kurdistan had been summoned to the Public and Revolutionary Prosecutor's Office in Sanandaj and other security agencies in the city.
Two years on, no changes on women’s rights
Two years since the movement began, analysts have pointed out that there have been no positive changes in the government's approach and behavior towards women and dissent.
The Islamic Republic persists in enforcing its strict policies on hijab and social conduct and, in some instances, has intensified these restrictions and pressures. The state has also moved to tighten mandatory hijab laws, increase surveillance on dissent, and more harshly crack down on those who oppose these regulations.
In a piece for Iran International’s Persian site, political activist Mahdieh Golroo argues that the Mahsa Zhina movement has sparked significant change in Iranian society, greatly raising public awareness of women's rights and motivating many to challenge the status quo. People who previously paid little attention to these issues are now more engaged with human rights, indicating a shift in public consciousness that promises deeper effects over time.
Golroo points out that, over the past two years, Iranian women have persisted in their resistance through social media and civil actions. While the movement hasn't yet led to immediate changes in government policy, it has intensified societal pressure and brought the issue of discrimination to the forefront of public debate.
Strikes and rallies planned inside Iran and abroad
On the eve of the second anniversary of the nationwide uprising, the Kurdistan Committee of the Worker-Communist Party of Iran issued a call for a nationwide strike on Sunday, September 15.
In a similar vein, nine labor and civil organizations within Iran issued a joint statement on the second anniversary of the "Women, Life, Freedom" movement, underscoring that "the inevitable confrontation between the majority of the people and the government has been ongoing for years due to worsening living conditions." The statement went on to declare, "We know there is no choice but to continue the 'Women, Life, Freedom' revolution."
Iranians abroad are also set to gather at various locations worldwide in the coming days to honor the memory of those killed by state security forces during the Mahsa movement.
Shirin Shams, a representative of the Women’s Revolution Organization, told Iran International, "Despite employing organized repression, the Islamic Republic cannot stop the progress of the 'Women, Life, Freedom' revolution." She further highlighted that over the past two years, women, students, schoolchildren, workers, teachers, nurses, retirees, LGBTQ+ individuals, and the broader public in Iran have united in their continued struggle against the Islamic Republic.
On September 11, Amnesty International released a report on the second anniversary of the "Women, Life, Freedom" uprising, emphasizing that officials of the Islamic Republic and those responsible for crimes against the people have systematically escaped punishment.
Diana Eltahawy, a senior official at Amnesty International, called for other countries to launch criminal investigations into the Iranian government's actions during the 2022 protests.
In March 2024, the UN Fact-Finding Committee, in its first report on the Mahsa movement, concluded that the violent crackdown on these protests and the widespread, systemic discrimination against women and girls had led to severe human rights violations in Iran, with many acts of repression constituting "crimes against humanity."
Ukraine’s foreign ministry announced on Friday that September 13 marks the anniversary of the downing of the first Iranian drone over the country.
The United States first warned in July 2022 that Iran was preparing to supply Russia with battlefield drones, and September 13 marked the anniversary of the first Shahed drone being shot down by Ukraine.
Russia soon began large scale use of the Iranian drones in attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure and civilian targets. The Shahed 136 drones have been used alongside cruise and ballistic missile attacks to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. While Western nations have supplied more air defense systems to Ukraine, the cost imbalance remains significant. Shooting down the relatively cheap drones with expensive missiles drains Ukraine’s defense resources, making it a costly challenge to maintain consistent protection against the barrage of incoming threats.
Western media have reported that Russia has begun producing Iranian Shahed drones at a factory in Tatarstan. However, it remains unclear what percentage of the drones currently used are being shipped from Iran versus those manufactured domestically in Russia. The Shahed drones carry a payload of around 40 kilograms that can be devastating against soft civilian targets.
News of Iran delivering short-range ballistic missiles to Russia has dominated headline this month. Western countries are certain that up to 200 Fath-360 missiles with a range of 120 kilometers, and a 150- kilogram warhead, have arrived in Russia.
The Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with the IRGC, described the Fateh-360 missiles in October 2022 as precision-guided, solid-fuel missiles equipped with bunker-busting warheads. Tasnim maintained that the missiles were upgraded with a combined and optical guidance system, these missiles are designed to resist electronic warfare and accurately destroy targets without interference.
The United States and top European powers imposed new sanctions this week against Iran and its state carrier Iran Air for the deliveries - the first missiles Iran is alleged to have delivered to Russia since it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Russia has been producing a new long-range attack drone with Chinese engines and parts, Reuters reported Friday, adding that the new drones have been used in attacks against Ukraine. The new drones would likely “reduce Russian reliance on Iranian drones”, sources from a European intelligence agency were quoted as telling Reuters.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Friday that the bloc was mulling new sanctions on Iran's aviation sector in response to the missile flights.
"The European Union has repeatedly strongly cautioned Iran against transfers of ballistic missiles to Russia," Borrel said, adding that the EU would "respond swiftly and in coordination with international partners".
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman accused the EU of acting on misinformation and warned that Western sanctions will be met with an unspecified response from the Islamic Republic. However, the government apparently allowed one well-known commentator to criticize the missile delivery in local media, and a lawmaker confirmed the news, despite denials by the foreign ministry.
Iranian government-owned media and semi-independent outlets under government control have largely remained silent on the drone and missile delivery controversy. Many Iranians resent the Islamic government’s foreign adventures that have brought on sanctions and isolation, seriously hurting the country’s economy.
Tom Sharpe, worked alongside the Americans in the Red Sea for two decades, witnessing their might as the most powerful navy in the world.
Despite that image and legacy, the Houthis have not been deterred by the US defensive and allied naval actions, he believes.
The Americans, and by extension the ‘West’, are failing to the Iran-backed rebels from the mountains of Yemen, he concluded.
The retired navy commander revealed on the Eye for Iran podcast that Tehran is winning against the US in the Red Sea.
“They're achieving their ends, all of them, and we're achieving none of ours. We're spending millions and millions of dollars on not winning. It's a real problem.”
Just after Oct 7, the Houthis have been attacking maritime shipping, disrupting shipping trade through the crucial Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
The Iran-backed rebel group say they are conducting the attacks in solidarity with the people of Gaza to push for a ceasefire, but Sharpe said they have only convinced a few.
According to the Joint Maritime Information Centre, the Houthis have attacked nearly 100 vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden since Israel's war against Hamas began after the atrocities of Oct 7.
The rebel group released footage in August of their fighters on the Greek-flagged oil tanker Sounion, detonating explosives on the ship. That prompted concerns of an environmental disaster.
In early September, the US military said the Houthis attacked two crude oil tankers – the Saudi- flagged Amjad, carrying about two million barrels of oil, and the Panama- flagged Blue Lagoon in the Red Sea. The Houthis claimed responsibility for targeting the Blue Lagoon with missiles and drones.
For Sharpe, the way the US is responding to the Houthis is “unusual” given how the US Navy had been operating and their procedures over the years.
“When the USS Mason was fired at in 2017 in the same area, they shot T -Lam Tomahawks straight back almost immediately. This whole thing has been backward leaning for all sorts of political reasons, but it’s just engendered this idea that the Houthis can keep going.”
Why is it that the most powerful navy in the world cannot beat a rebel group from the mountains?
Sharpe said to “hit them hard enough to make them stop would be really difficult” and the reason is “they’ve learned so much from Iran in terms of mass maneuverability.”
The bedrock of Iran’s strategy, he said, is concealment and agility in the Persian Gulf. Sharp added, if you go after one target, which costs in the millions, the Houthis are skilled at hiding their weapons, and move it around on mobile launchers, hiding it in the mountains and villages.
The Americans would need a tremendous amount of airborne surveillance to achieve anything and that comes with huge costs with one missile used to strike a drone, amounting to around 6 million US dollars, according to Sharpe.
Another reason for a weak response from the Americans would be not to anger Iran and set off the balance of deterrence in the Middle East.
On Ward Carroll's YouTube episode, titled 'Admiral Tells the Real Truth about battling the Houthis in the Red Sea," a US Navy commander from the Dwight D Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, said he suggested more aggressive strikes on the Houthis, but he was told not to by higher command to reportedly avoid angering Iran.
Gen. Michael Kurilla, CENTCOM's commander claimed in a letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin that the current policies are "failing" to have the desired impact on Houthi attacks, according to an exclusive published in the Wall Street Journal.
On Eye for Iran, Sharpe also revealed that the Houthis are likely exporters of weapons, saying that they learned to reverse engineer from the Islamic Republic.
"They've become so good at this; they may well be sending it back to Iran."
For more, you can watch the full episode on YouTube or listen on Spotify, Castbox, Apple, or Amazon.
The backlash was triggered by a photo displayed at a bakery entrance stating, "By order of the prosecutor, the sale of bread to foreign nationals is prohibited" and warning that violations would result in punitive actions against the business.
The directive, issued by the Prosecutor of Bardsir County in southeastern Kerman Province, restricts bread sales to "foreign nationals," a term often used in Iran to specifically refer to Afghan citizens, regardless of their legal status. The order has drawn sharp criticism from civil and political activists, as well as officials. While the directive lacked clarity on its application to Afghan migrants legally in the country, the criticism centers on the broader implications and perceived discriminatory nature of the measure.
Rasoul Mousavi, an aide to Iran's Foreign Minister, shared the photo on the X platform and condemned the directive, lamenting, "What has happened to us with this history, culture, literature, and mysticism, that we have come to this?"
Initially, Mizan News Agency, affiliated with Iran’s Judiciary, denied the accuracy of the report, suggesting the banner was misleading. However, further clarification revealed that Afghans are restricted to purchasing bread only from designated bakeries in the camps or from those offering non-subsidized bread at higher prices. A subsequent update from Mizan stated that "this decision was not a judicial one, but was approved in the Security Council of Bardsir County with the involvement of government and law enforcement officials."
The government has acknowledged that subsidized bread prices in the country have surged by 40 to 66 percent, with further increases anticipated due to the ongoing economic crisis. While some bakeries continue to offer subsidized bread, others do not, reflecting inconsistencies in the availability of price-controlled staples across the country.
Anti-Afghan sentiment has surged alongside a rapid increase in Afghan migrants, with reports suggesting that up to 10,000 Afghans are entering Iran daily, bringing the total Afghan population close to 10 million. This growing hostility is fueled by the severe economic hardships faced by many Iranians, who view the influx as exacerbating competition for scarce resources and jobs. Activists and politicians warn that this mounting resentment could escalate into violence against migrants and pose a significant security risk for the country.
Experts contend that misguided, hasty, and poorly conceived policies in managing the unregulated presence of migrants—lacking proper oversight and follow-up—have significantly contributed to the current surge in antipathy toward Afghans across the country.
Social media and state-controlled outlets have seen debates and protests, with some alleging that the government has allowed unchecked migration for ulterior motives, including bolstering military ranks with Afghan recruits, particularly through the Afghan Hazara Fatemiyoun Brigade linked to the IRGC.
Critics argue that under former President Ebrahim Raisi, incentives like subsidized energy and food were offered to increase the Afghan population as a countermeasure to Iran's declining population. However, facing economic struggles, Iran appears to be shifting this strategy.
On Tuesday, Ahmadreza Radan, the Commander-in-Chief of Iran's Law Enforcement, announced plans to expel nearly two million unauthorized foreign nationals by the end of March. Additionally, in May, authorities announced the establishment of a "special patrol" in Shahr-e Rey, south of Tehran, tasked with identifying and apprehending undocumented foreign nationals. This is while, according to domestic media, more than 90% of those forcibly deported eventually return, primarily benefiting human traffickers.
