Iran is "lying in wait today, and will definitely respond," said Mohsen Rezaei, a member of Iran's Expediency Council and former IRGC chief-commander, on the delay in Tehran's response to the killing of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh.
"Drawing on the experiences from the war with Iraq, we will avoid any hasty action and deliver a harsh blow to Netanyahu," Rezaei noted on Monday.
Dubbed the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement, nationwide demonstrations erupted in Iran after the killing of Mahsa Jina Amini while in the custody of the state’s notorious "morality police," who enforce the mandatory Islamic hijab. Over the following months, security forces killed more than 500 people and jailed tens of thousands.
In memory of the victims killed on September 21, 2022, the advocacy group Victims' Families for Transitional Justice (VFFTJ) published the names of those killed, calling it "the darkest day" of the month.
"The peak of the crackdown was two years ago today when they killed at least 55 people in a single day," said Mahsa Piraei, a member of VFFTJ, in an interview with Iran International English on Saturday. Piraei’s mother, Minoo Majidi, was fatally shot by state security forces during protests in Kermanshah, western Iran.
"Those are just the names we know," Piraei added. "Many are still too afraid to even acknowledge that their child or family member was killed," she emphasized, highlighting the ongoing fear and repression that continues to silence the families of victims.
At Amini's funeral on September 17, 2022, in Saqqez, Kurdistan province, crowds chanted anti-regime slogans, echoing the protests that had already erupted in Tehran. Fueled by widespread anger over women's rights and decades of government repression, these demonstrations quickly spread across the nation.
Soran Mansournia, a member of VFFTJ and the brother of Borhan Mansournia, who was killed during Iran’s November 2019 protests, reflected on the state’s response, describing the mass killings of protesters during two key phases of the 2022 uprising.
“During the 'Woman, Life, Freedom' movement, the number of people killed on the streets was very high in two main periods—the first in late September and the second in late November 2022," Mansournia said in an interview with Iran International English.
"In late September 2022, the government sought to scare the public by severely suppressing protesters, hoping to prevent the spread of demonstrations to other cities. This led to the killing of many Iranian citizens over two days, September 21 and 22, with at least 55 people killed on September 21 alone."
Mansournia noted that a second wave of intensified crackdowns occurred in late November 2022 when people took to the streets to mark the anniversary of the November 2019 protests, during which at least 1,500 protesters were killed by state security forces.
"By early November 2022, the protests had subsided, and a sense of downturn had set in," Mansournia recounted. "As the third anniversary of Bloody November approached, people spontaneously called for a return to the streets, especially to remember those killed in November 2019, reigniting the protests."
In response, the Islamic Republic once again unleashed its security forces. “Many people across Iran took to the streets again, and unfortunately, this resulted in yet another large number of deaths, especially in the final days of November 2022,” Mansournia said.
"These two periods—late September and late November—were the bloodiest phases of the 'Woman, Life, Freedom' movement during the six to seven months of protests," Mansournia emphasized.
Human rights organizations estimate that of the at least 551 protesters killed, 68 were children and 49 were women.
State's crackdown on victim’s families on second anniversary of slain protestors
Amid the state’s clampdown, which includes threats and arrests of victims' families—this year targeting Amini’s family as well—some managed to hold small gatherings on Saturday to commemorate the second anniversary of their loved ones killed.
The state's pressure on families continues, however, as highlighted by the recent arrest of Mina Soltani, mother of slain protester Shahryar Mohammadi, and the intimidation of many others into silence.
Piraei highlighted the state's crackdown on victims' families, attributing it to fears of renewed protests during anniversaries. "This is exactly what the authorities fear could happen again, which is why the Islamic Republic prevents victims' families from holding memorials," she said.
"The regime knows that the families of those killed have widespread support, and they fear the protests could reignite," she added.
As seen during last year’s first-anniversary protests, the crackdown has followed a familiar pattern, with ongoing detentions and increasing pressure on those trying to honor their loved ones.
On Sunday, Gohar Eshghi, the mother of Sattar Beheshti—a blogger who died under torture in custody in 2012—announced she would begin a hunger strike outside the UN office in Tehran to protest the arrests of families of slain protesters.
In a video message, Eshghi expressed her solidarity with the families of Mina Soltani, Mashallah Karami, and Pouya Bakhtiari, as well as with all the children imprisoned by the regime.
Eshghi declared, "Tomorrow, I will go on strike outside the United Nations. If [Supreme Leader]Ali Khamenei’s mercenaries don’t allow me, I will go on strike outside Imamzadeh Saleh...My life for Iran."
Notably, memorials held on Saturday saw families act in defiance of security forces, as families continue to honor their loved ones.
Maryam, the sister of Roozbeh Khademian, who was killed in Karaj during the protests, released a dove at her brother’s grave.
"Two years have passed, and the pain remains unbearable," she said. Videos of Saeed Mohammadi’s mother singing a mournful song at her son’s grave in Kermanshah were shared on social media, capturing the deep heartbreak that still lingers.
Milad Mogouyi, the brother of Mahsa Mogouyi, who was killed during the revolutionary uprising, posted a video on Instagram commemorating the second anniversary of his sister’s death. He wrote, “On the second anniversary of September 2022, when we lost so many of our loved ones, we gathered at your grave to remind you that we will remember you until our last breath, and your blood will not have been shed in vain.”
Mansournia paid tribute to 15-year-old protester Amir Hossein Basati, who was fatally shot by state security forces on September 21, 2022, by sharing a video of Basati drawing his last breaths on a pavement in Kermanshah.
Most Iranians, battered by years of 40% annual inflation, now spend half or more of their income on rent alone. This means that an ordinary worker earning $200 a month has less than $100 for food and all the other essentials.
This week, Mohammad Saleh Shokoohi Bidehendi, a faculty member at the Iran University of Science and Technology's School of Architecture and Urban Planning, said: "In global rankings, Iran is among countries where housing prices are disproportionately high compared to average incomes."
Speaking at a meeting titled 'Programmatic Solutions for Housing Provision in Iran', organized by the Center for Iran’s Development and Foresight Studies, he added: "This makes it extremely difficult for many families to afford a home."
He noted that housing costs consume 37% of household expenses in urban areas, about 50% in Tehran Province, and over 55% in the city of Tehran. "This situation has placed Iran seventh worldwide in terms of housing affordability relative to household income," he added.
While he did not specify the source of the figures, they match closely with global data. According to Numbeo's mid-2024 reports, Tehran was ranked as the fourth most expensive city globally based on the House Price to Income (HPI) ratio, while Iran stands as the twelfth most expensive country. The HPI compares the median house price to the median household income, highlighting the significant gap between property costs and average earnings.
In July, Iranian media reported that ordinary citizens are now confronting the grim reality of a century-long wait to achieve homeownership as housing prices continue to soar. By June, the average price per square meter in the capital had surged to approximately 860 million rials (around $1,475).
For working-class Iranians earning an average of $200 per month, local estimates suggest that it would take over a century — if not longer — for a wage earner to afford even the smallest residential unit.
Economic sanctions, high inflation rates, and a surge in real estate investment as a hedge against currency devaluation have driven property prices upward. The economic crisis has also forced at least one third of Iranians below the poverty line.
Moreover, data from the Central Bank of Iran indicates that the average price per square meter of residential units in Tehran has skyrocketed in recent years, far outpacing wage growth. The disparity has led to declining home ownership rates, forcing many households to allocate a substantial portion of their income to rent.
Fardin Yazdani, an expert in urban and housing economics and director of the comprehensive housing plan review studies, noted during the meeting that after 2018, the economic landscape in Iran shifted dramatically.
Due to sanctions and a surge in demand for investment in land and housing - driven by the need to safeguard the value of financial assets - Investment shifted away from the production sector. This exacerbated negative economic growth, culminating in stagflation within the housing market. Iran's currency has lost its value almost 15-fold since early 2018.
It's a peculiar paradox in the housing market: while genuine demand shrinks because families can't afford to buy homes, prices continue their upward march, because people consider their real estate as the only guarantee against inflation. Wealthy investors, eager to preserve the value of their assets amid economic uncertainty, are snapping up properties to hedge against inflation.
It has made real estate — much like gold and foreign currencies — a favored capital investment in Iran. Many are attempting to safeguard their assets from rapid currency depreciation by purchasing houses and apartments. As a result, real estate prices continue to climb in tandem with the escalating value of the dollar.
Experts say it is critical for the government to implement effective tax regulations to prevent land from becoming a speculative asset. A comprehensive national land and housing plan is also needed, along with restructuring the national budgeting system.
The ongoing economic crisis has eroded public confidence, reflected recently by historically low voter turnout in elections. Experts warn that economic turmoil is likely to worsen, with no end in sight to Iran's confrontational nuclear and regional policies.
In what appears to be a panicked response to close security gaps and preempt any further attacks or breaches, the IRGC has launched a large-scale investigation into its 190,000-strong force.
In an exclusive report, Reuters revealed that the IRGC is inspecting all devices used by its members, extending beyond just communication tools.
One senior Iranian security official, who spoke anonymously to Reuters, expressed Tehran's concerns about possible infiltration by Israeli agents, including Iranians working for Israel.
The Iranian official also noted widespread concern within Iran's ruling establishment. IRGC officials have reportedly reached out to Hezbollah for technical assessments, and several exploded devices have been sent to Tehran for examination by Iranian experts.
Last week’s attacks in Lebanon targeted Hezbollah’s walkie-talkies and pagers, triggering explosions that killed at least 39 people and injured over 3,000 across Hezbollah strongholds. Hezbollah and the Lebanese government accused Israel, though Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement.
The Iranian official also mentioned that most of the devices under scrutiny were either homemade or sourced from China and Russia.
According to the report, the thorough investigation focuses on mid- to high-ranking IRGC members. This includes a detailed review of their bank accounts, both domestic and international, as well as their travel histories and those of their families.
For the time being, it is unclear how the IRGC, a powerful paramilitary force that controls much of Iran's economy and permeates practically all aspects of society, will manage communications.
According to the Reuters report, the IRGC’s communications have shifted to end-to-end encrypted messaging systems, with the Iranian official declining to provide further details.
Reza Taghipour, a former communications minister, told the IRGC-affiliated Javan newspaper on Thursday that the recent attacks in Lebanon highlight the need for Iran to rely on domestic technologies. He suggested that if foreign-made devices must be used, they should undergo rigorous physical, software, and electromagnetic tests to ensure cyber security.
Meanwhile, Mohammad Marandi, a regime insider and advisor to Iran's nuclear negotiation team during Ebrahim Raisi’s presidency, has warned Iranians through several tweets since Tuesday about the risks of purchasing electronic devices and high-tech products from Western, Taiwanese, Korean, or Japanese manufacturers.
The latest setback for one of Tehran's key proxies comes as the Islamic Republic faces growing pressure from its supporters to retaliate against Israel, particularly after the injury of its ambassador in Lebanon and the unresolved response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
That killing, in the heart of the Iranian capital, sparked speculations and warnings about serious flaws and “Israeli infiltration” in Iran's intelligence and security agencies. Although Israel has not claimed responsibility for Haniyeh’s assassination, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, holds Israel accountable and has vowed to avenge the killing.
Since at least 2010, it has been alleged that Israel conducted dozens of attacks inside Iran, targeting sensitive nuclear and military installations and carrying out assassinations of individuals deemed a threat.
These attacks escalated after a massive July 2020 explosion at the Natanz uranium enrichment site in central Iran, which destroyed a key building. In November, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a prominent figure in Iran’s nuclear program and suspected architect of its covert weapons efforts, was assassinated in a roadside attack near Tehran.
Securing its nuclear and missile facilities, especially the underground sites, is Tehran's top priority today, according to one Iranian official who spoke to Reuters after the attacks in Lebanon.
However, he noted that security at those facilities had already been increased following what Iranian authorities described as an Israeli sabotage attempt on the country’s missile program in 2023. Israel has not commented on those claims.
"There has never, ever been such tight security and extreme measures in place as there are now," said the official, implying that the Hezbollah pager explosions in Lebanon have prompted further security tightening.
The IRGC, established following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, holds substantial power in Iran, controlling a ground force, navy, and air force. It also operates the Quds Force, responsible for overseas operations and support for regional proxies, many of which are designated as terrorist organizations, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, the Houthis in Yemen, and various militias in Iraq. The group extends its influence across the Middle East by providing these terrorist groups with funds, weapons, and training, contributing to regional instability and violence.
Iran's military uses a range of encrypted communication devices, with many developed domestically to avoid reliance on foreign suppliers, particularly due to sanctions imposed on Tehran over its nuclear program. Although Iran has imported communication equipment from China, Russia, and Japan in the past, pagers have reportedly not been in use by the military for over two decades, the security source said.
