Iran seeks to reengage West, but its threat won't diminish, analysts say
The UN General Assembly Hall is empty before the start of the SDG Moment event as part of the UN General Assembly 76th session General Debate at United Nations Headquarters, in New York, September 20, 2021.
Iran is signaling its desire to resume nuclear negotiations with the West, as indicated by the Foreign Minister on Monday, as the country’s President arrived in the US for the UN General Assembly.
Iran's Quds Force commander told Iraqi political leaders last week to ease criticism of the prime minister who has been embroiled in a row over spying allegations, sources said, seeking to steady a regional ally as conflict in the Middle East flares.
Esmail Qaani made the request during a visit to Baghdad, according to seven Iraqi sources, including people in political parties whose leaders the Iranian commander met. A regional diplomat confirmed the account. All the sources asked not to be named because the meetings were held in private.
The move to avert any weakening of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani reflects concerns in Iran about instability on its doorstep in Iraq, where Tehran has long wielded influence via a range of Iran-backed armed groups and Shiite Muslim parties.
Tehran is keen to avoid further pressure on its regional alliances after the almost year-long Gaza war, which has hammered Hamas, and amid an escalating conflict in Lebanon that has put huge pressure on Tehran's key regional ally, Hezbollah.
The Quds Force is the overseas branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The IRGC and Iran's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Qaani told Iraqi leaders in the Coordination Framework, a grouping of Shiite Muslim parties that picked Sudani for the job, not to undermine the prime minister amid allegations his office spied on top Iraqi officials and politicians. Qaani said stability in Iraq was vital amid the regional violence.
The spying allegations, which have been denied by advisers to Sudani and for which no evidence has been publicly presented, were aired by lawmakers and major media organisations last month and have caused a stir in Iraq.
Parliamentary elections next year
Loyalists and independent observers say prime minister Sudani's political opponents stoked the allegations to try to weaken him before parliamentary elections next year. Parties critical of him say the allegations are serious.
Iraq's judiciary has opened a probe into the matter overseen by Faiq Zaidan, the head of the Supreme Judicial Council, and some Iraqi officials said the results of the probe could determine whether the prime minister continues in his job.
For Sudani, the dispute comes at a delicate moment. He is seeking to rebuild the economy after decades of conflict ahead of elections and to balance the influence of well-armed, Iran-backed factions while negotiating a drawdown of US-led forces in Iraq, where Washington has maintained a contingent for years.
Renad Mansour at the London-based Chatham House think tank said Iran wanted to prevent tensions in Iraq, where rivalries have often turned violent, before parliamentary polls in 2025.
"At a crucial moment for Iran when it's trying to respond to Israeli aggression, the Iraqi groups are infighting in a way that's destabilising. The last thing Iran wants now is a political mess in Iraq," Mansour said.
It's not the first time Qaani has intervened in Iraq in a moment of crisis.
In February, he asked armed factions that Iran backs in Iraq to cease attacks on U.S. forces after a strike by one group on a US base in Jordan, on Iraq's western border, killed three US troops, Reuters reported at the time.
Swedish authorities said on Tuesday that Iran hacked a messaging service last year, sending thousands of messages urging Swedes to retaliate against Quran burners.
Last year, there were several instances in Sweden where Islam's holy book was publicly burned, triggering widespread outrage across the Muslim world and sparking concerns of potential jihadist attacks.
“The security police can establish that a cyber group acted on behalf of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to carry out an influence campaign,” the Swedish Security Service stated.
“The purpose was, among other things, to paint the image of Sweden as an Islamophobic country and create division in society,” it added.
In a separate statement, the Swedish Prosecution Authority confirmed that its investigation had determined the Iranian state, through the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was responsible for the data breach.
The authority noted that while they had identified the hackers involved, they would not proceed with pressing charges.
“Since the perpetrators are acting for a foreign power, in this case Iran, we assess that the conditions for prosecution abroad or extradition to Sweden are lacking,” the statement read.
Last year, the US State Department named Iran as the world's number one state sponsor of terror.
Following the Quran burnings, Sweden heightened its terrorism alert last year. The desecration led to widespread protests across several Muslim-majority countries, including a large demonstration outside the Swedish embassy in Baghdad. Iran's foreign ministry summoned Sweden’s charge d’affaires in Tehran. Also, Morocco recalled its ambassador in protest. At the same time, Turkey’s foreign minister condemned the incident, stating that it is “unacceptable to allow anti-Islam protests in the name of freedom of expression.”
The US also weighed in on the matter, with the deputy spokesperson for the State Department, Vedant Patel, noting in a briefing that burning religious texts is “disrespectful and hurtful.” He added, “What might be legal is certainly not necessarily appropriate".
In May, Sweden’s domestic security agency revealed that Iran had been planning terror plots in Sweden targeting dissidents and the country's Jewish and Israeli community.
The Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the revelations showing Iran was using Swedish crime gangs were being taken "very seriously".
In June, Iran and Sweden exchanged prisoners in a controversial swap. Iran freed Johan Floderus, a Swedish diplomat, and Saeed Azizi, a dual citizen. In return, Sweden released Hamid Nouri, an Iranian official convicted of war crimes for his role in the 1988 mass executions. Human rights groups have strongly criticized the exchange, calling it an act of "hostage-taking" by Iran.
Ahead of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's address at the UN on Tuesday, calls for the release of dissident rapper Toomaj Salehi have intensified, driven by growing pressure from his family, legal team, and human rights organizations.
Human rights advocates are using Pezeshkian’s visit to New York as an opportunity to highlight Salehi’s continued imprisonment and Iran’s broader human rights violations.
In a joint statement from his legal team at Doughty Street Chambers, Index on Censorship, and the Human Rights Foundation, they emphasized that Salehi's music and activism have been pivotal to the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement, challenging corruption and exposing human rights abuses by Iranian authorities. The statement also underscored that, in retaliation for his outspoken work, Salehi has faced over three years of judicial harassment, including imprisonment, beatings, and torture.
The "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement, sparked by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini while in police custody in 2022, saw months of nationwide protests. Human rights organizations estimate that at least 551 protesters were killed, including 68 children and 49 women, in the violent crackdown by state security forces. In March, the UN Fact-Finding mission’s report concluded that the suppression of these protests and systemic discrimination against women and girls amounted to severe human rights violations, with many acts constituting "crimes against humanity."
Salehi was first arrested in September 2021 following the release of his track “Mouse Hole,” and was detained again in October 2022 during the "Woman, Life, Freedom" uprising, facing charges including “corruption on earth,” which led to a death sentence in April.
While the death sentence was overturned by Iran's Supreme Court in June, Salehi remains imprisoned, with new charges tied to his music and activism. According to the statement, authorities have denied him adequate medical care, leaving him in severe pain from injuries sustained under torture.
Two urgent appeals have been filed with the UN on Salehi's behalf. In May, his legal team submitted an appeal to two UN Special Rapporteurs, and in July, the Human Rights Foundation lodged an individual complaint with the UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention.
In the statement, Salehi’s family and friends also voiced concerns over his continued detention. Negin Niknaam, his friend and social media manager, highlighted that "Toomaj remains unlawfully [detained] in Dastgerd prison despite the absence of an arrest order and is in urgent need of medical care to prevent permanent disability." She called on UN Member States to hold Iran accountable and push for his immediate release.
Salehi's cousin, Arezou Eghbali Babadi, added that "international solidarity has been key in overturning Toomaj’s death sentence" and urged the global community to pressure the Iranian president for his release "before it’s too late."
Masoud Pezeshkian is set to become the seventh Iranian president to address the UN General Assembly. But how did his predecessors navigate their visits to New York, and what were their key moments on the world stage?
Pezeshkian’s supporters hope his Tuesday UNGA speech and meetings in New York may help present a better, more peaceful image of Iran to the world and pave the way for lifting US sanctions.
Others believe he has no authority to do anything other than reiterating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s anti-American, anti-Western, anti-Israeli stances and will stay away from meeting US and other Western officials like some of his predecessors.
Between 1979 and 1998 Iranian presidents rarely addressed the UN General Assembly in person. The exceptions were Mohammad-Ali Rajai who visited New York once during his four months of presidency in 1981, a year after Iraq invaded Iran, and then-President Ali Khamenei in 1987.
Mohammad-Ali Rajai 1981
Iran's second president, who had flown to New York immediately after symbolically visiting the war front spoke against both the United States and Russia for supporting Iraq in the war.
Rajai raised many eyebrows by removing one of his socks and putting his foot on the podium to show the scars of torture in prison before the Revolution.
Ali Khamenei (1981-1989)
Khamenei called on world leaders to hold an international tribunal like the Nuremberg tribunal to try Saddam Hussein and accusing the UN Security Council of supporting his invasion of Iran in September 1980 that led to a destructive eight-year war.
Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani (1989-1997)
Iran's fourth president never attended UNGA on whose behalf then Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Velayati addressed the meetings. No reasons were ever offered for his absence at these international meetings. He was accused of being involved in two terror bombings of Jewish targets in Argentina in 1992 and 1994 and this could have played a role in his absence
Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005)
The Islamic Republic’s fifth president, the reformist Mohammad Khatami, was the first Iranian president after Khamenei to address the UNGA in 1998. Khatami argued in his well-received speech against Samuel Huntington’s theory of a Clash of Civilizations and proposed Dialogue Among Civilizations as the best alternative.
He also proposed that the year 2001 be proclaimed the Year of Dialogue Among Civilizations by the United Nations. The UN adopted his proposal in November 1998.
The 9/11 attacks and the US invasion of Afghanistan to remove the Taliban happened during the Year of Dialogue Among Civilizations after which Khatami delivered only one more speech at UNGA to defend his theory.
Khatami did not attend the speech by the US President, Bill Clinton in 1988. Clinton, however, attended Khatami’s speech. This was the only time a US president sat for the UNGA speech of any Iranian president.
Clinton was reportedly keen on a meeting that the Iranian delegation turned down, reportedly because Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei refused to give Khatami the green light.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005-2013)
The populist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has a record of visiting New York eight times during his presidency to address the UNGA.
After his first UN speech in 2005, Ahmadinejad reportedly told a prominent Shia cleric that he felt surrounded by a halo-like aura of light while addressing world leaders. This claim drew widespread criticism from across the political spectrum.
He always attacked the US and other Western powers, Israel and NATO in his speeches. In 2010, he proposed to name 2011 the Year of Nuclear Disarmament and Nuclear Energy, as Iran's own nuclear program was under the UN Security Council's spotlight and sanctions were being imposed on Tehran.
The delegations of the US and other EU countries as well as Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Costa Rica walked out in protest to his controversial stances before his speech in 2011. He accused the US government of being behind the 9/11 attacks in the speech.
Hassan Rouhani -(2013-2021)
During his eight years of presidency, Rouhani attended the annual UNGA twice, in 2013 and 2015.
Rouhani came under massive criticism from hardliners at home for accepting a brief phone call with then-President Barak Obama during his first visit to New York.
Around 100 hardliners protested against Rouhani at the airport upon his return to Tehran and threw shoes at his vehicle as a sign of disrespect.
During the same visit, Foreign Minister Mohammad-Javad Zarif and Obama had a brief, unplanned conversation in the UN hallways.
Ebrahim Raisi (2021-May 2024)
Raisi visited New York twice, in 2022 and 2023, to attend the annual UN General Assembly (UNGA) meetings.
Raisi displayed a photo of Qasem Soleimani, the slain commander of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Qods Force during his speech, which took place immediately after the death of the 22-year-old Mahsa (Jina) Amini in the custody of the morality police and the beginnings of the Woman, Life, Freedom protests.
Raisi had no high-profile meetings during his two UN visits. Members of most Western delegations were absent from his speeches.
Raisi’s second visit in which his wife and his daughter accompanied him was marred at home by a video clip showing a van being filled with boxes of baby food and kitchen paraphernalia in New York.
A member of his team claimed these were gifts the Iranian team had received from other participating officials and packed in those boxes.
The government also said Raisi’s wife had accompanied him to meet with the wives of other foreign officials and interviews with ABC, NPR, and Newsweek.
An audio file obtained by Iran International reveals that Masoud Pezeshkian, president of the Islamic Republic, told American media representatives in New York on Monday that Iran is ready to disarm if Israel does the same.
Pezeshkian said, "We are prepared to give up all our weapons, provided Israel also disarms, and an international organization steps in to ensure security in the region. We don't even need them—we know how to secure our own safety."
Pezeshkian who spoke at length about Israel being the main culprit in the region, attacking others and seeking war, also briefly mentioned the war in Ukraine. He denied recent accusations that Iran has supplied ballistic missiles to Russia and called for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. However, he did not mention Iran’s delivery of around 8,000 Shahed suicide drones to Russia since mid-2022.
Just before his trip to New York to attend the UN General Assembly, Pezeshkian had said that one his goals during the visit was to improve the image of the Islamic Republic in the world.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (center) and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (left) and Mohammad Javad Zarif, an advisor to the president, during a meeting with a group of representatives of US media outlets in New York, September 23, 2024
In the meeting with reporters the Iranian president stated, "A terrorist is a terrorist, whether Arab, non-Arab, or Persian, whether it's Israel, the US, or Iran. If they commit terrorism, they are a terrorist. But it’s not acceptable to call one side’s actions self-defense while labeling the other a terrorist for the same actions." During the hour-long event, Pezeshkian focused on portraying Israel as engaged in one-sided aggression. “We want to live in peace, we don’t want war. It’s Israel that is seeking to provoke a full-scale conflict."
Addressing the media representatives present at the meeting, Pezeshkian said, "This is the essence of our message, and you can publish it however you wish. Help us find a way not to go to war. Let’s resolve what can be solved through dialogue, not with missiles and weapons."
He added, "Help bring peace and security to the world. We are ready. We don’t want war. We have no desire for any country’s land, nor are we seeking to cause disruption anywhere."
Pezeshkian clarified, "This doesn’t mean there aren’t some Iranians who may be involved in certain actions in some places. It’s possible, just as it’s possible for people in our own country to rise up and do certain things. But to say that ‘we’ are behind these actions—this isn’t true. There are individuals who don’t adhere to the framework and act independently. Don’t attribute their actions to us."
However, throughout four decades of its existence the Islamic Republic leaders have often threatened regional countries for not siding with Tehran in its campaign against Israel and the United States, while calling for destruction of the Jewish state,
Pezeshkian also declared, "We speak truthfully. I’m not skilled in politics and deception. That’s why I want people to speak honestly and tell the truth, so we don’t feel deceived later. We don’t deceive anyone." He added, "By God, we are human too, and we are not warmongers."
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi speaking during a meeting with American media representatives in New York, September 23, 2024
However, hours after Pezeshkian’s remarks were published, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, issued a statement saying, "I reject the reports by some media outlets claiming that Masoud Pezeshkian said the Islamic Republic is ready to de-escalate with Israel. Mr. Pezeshkian never made such remarks."
Araghchi also told Tasnim News, affiliated with the IRGC, "Contrary to what has been reported, Dr. Pezeshkian strongly condemned the crimes of the Zionist regime in Gaza and its aggression against Lebanon during a meeting this morning in New York with some American media executives. He stressed that these crimes are in violation of all human and international standards and must be stopped."
He added, "He clearly stated that these crimes, including the assassination of martyr Haniyeh in Tehran, will not go unanswered, and the response will be delivered in due time."
Pezeshkian also condemned Israel’s operations in Gaza and Lebanon on Monday, accusing Israel of setting a trap to drag the Islamic Republic into a full-scale war. He reiterated that Iran does not seek war but wants peace and security in the region.
On Monday, in separate meetings and statements, Pezeshkian accused Israel of trying to provoke the Islamic Republic into war, while also affirming Iran’s resolve to avenge the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Pezeshkian, addressing the delay in what the Islamic Republic calls its "harsh response" to avenge the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the former head of Hamas' political bureau, pointed to Iran's consultations with Western countries. He remarked, "We were told a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas would be reached within a week, but that week never arrived. Instead, Israel has continued to escalate its attacks."
Araghchi further emphasized, "The Islamic Republic will certainly not remain indifferent to the recent Zionist regime's aggression against Lebanon and will fully defend and support Lebanon."
However, Tasnim News highlighted Pezeshkian’s emphasis on the need to end Israel’s military operations and establish peace and security in its reports on his Monday meetings with leaders from several countries.
Disregarding repeated accusations from Western countries that the Islamic Republic supports terrorism and violates international law and treaties, Pezeshkian stated, "We believe global peace and security can only be achieved if all nations respect international treaties and, regardless of power dynamics, stand united against any country committing acts of aggression."
According to Tasnim, in a meeting with Viola Amherd, the President of Switzerland, Masoud Pezeshkian stated, "In our foreign policy, we seek to establish stability, security, and peace in the region, while the Zionist regime is striving to incite war and create instability."
On Monday, Pezeshkian also met with the President of the European Council and the President of Turkey.
According to Iranian media, he is also scheduled to meet with King Abdullah II of Jordan and French President Emmanuel Macron. The Gaza war and the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel are expected to be the main topics of Pezeshkian's discussions in New York.
Masoud Pezeshkian's trip to the United States has sparked significant criticism on social media. Reports indicate that contrary to initial news, he traveled to New York with a 40-member delegation, including his two sons, daughter, and son-in-law.
The group also includes three key figures from the Islamic Republic's 2015 nuclear negotiation team: former Foreign Minister and current deputy to Pezeshkian, Mohammad Javad Zarif; Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi; and Araghchi's deputy, Majid Takht-Ravanchi.
However, it appears unlikely that any meetings will take place between officials of the Islamic Republic and the US government during this trip.
Media outlets affiliated with the Islamic Republic quoted Abbas Araghchi as stating that he will not meet with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken or any Biden administration officials, as he said such a meeting is "not advisable."
Speaking to domestic media, Iran’s top diplomat, Abbas Araghchi, stated that Tehran is prepared to initiate discussions this week, provided “the other parties are ready.”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s first trip to the West comes just six weeks before the November 5 US presidential election—and amid mounting regional instability in the Middle East. Reuters reported last week that the country’s new president is set to meet with European leaders while in New York, although there is little sign of any breakthrough.
Iran expert Ali Fathollah-Nejad says that this aligns with Pezeshkian’s so-called mission to seek talks with the West in order to obtain sanctions relief. “Pezeshkian’s so-called mission is also supported by the power center in Iran, by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the IRGC whose daily Javan had even celebrated Pezeshkian’s presidential victory,” said Fathollah-Nejad, who is the director of the Center for Middle East and Global Order (CMEG).
While some analysis in Western media has lauded the "reformist" new President as a potential bridge between Iran and the West, others remain unconvinced. “Pezeshkian is nothing more than a moderate façade for the regime to ward off Western economic sanctions and pressure. The West seems to have little strategic memory that the regime has used this tactic repeatedly throughout its 45-year history,” Andrea Stricker, the Deputy Director and Research Fellow at FDD’s Nonproliferation & Biodefense Program, told Iran International English.
According to Reuters, which cited three Iranian officials, Pezeshkian is set to deliver a message that "Tehran is open to diplomacy," with one Iranian official reportedly saying that "Iran's rulers believe that the tense standoff with the West over Iran's nuclear program should end... but through negotiations from a position of power, not pressure.”
Stricker argues that the emphasis on "power, not pressure" highlights the regime's understanding that it can leverage nuclear coercion and blackmail to secure Western concessions. These range from the US easing oil sanctions, allowing unprecedented Iranian oil exports, to avoiding strikes on Iranian military assets despite attacks on US interests or global shipping, and the West's failure to hold Tehran accountable at the IAEA for its nuclear violations. “All of this permits the regime to increase its malign regional activity with impunity,” Stricker said.
Pressure on Iran has also been mounting from some corners to respond to the widely believed Israeli operations—including the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and the latest series of strikes on Hezbollah members in Lebanon. Iran’s reluctance to respond, Fathollah-Nejad argues, is because there is a strategic preference by the regime for Pezeshkian to secure “sanctions relief that is considered vital by Iran’s power center, for regime stability reasons.”
Fathollah-Nejad also notes the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming weeks in Tehran's diplomatic efforts to re-engage with the West. He suggests that for the regime, it would be favorable if Kamala Harris wins the US presidency, as there is significant anxiety in Tehran about Donald Trump's potential return to the White House. While he says that it is difficult to predict what the next weeks will look like, Iran might agree to freeze its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief from the US.
“This would, of course, be a temporary measure, regardless of the fact that there is a need to broaden Iran policy, not least in the regional geopolitical dimension,” Fathollah-Nejad said.
Regardless of who wins the US presidency, Stricker argues that further rounds of fruitless nuclear talks are merely a tactic to "prevent the West from shifting to a pressure strategy aimed at penalizing, deterring, and rolling back Iran's nuclear advancements." “Just as nearly two years of nuclear talks under Biden were ultimately futile, we should expect the same of any talks that are not backed by severe Western pressure and a credible threat of military force. The current dynamic is the result of a failure of US and European strategy and their fear of escalation,” she said.
The Biden administration has seemingly deprioritized negotiations with Iran, focusing on other issues, and with the 2015 nuclear deal effectively defunct, future diplomatic efforts are likely to be more challenging and less effective. Both European diplomats and US officials have suggested in various reports that while Washington is not ready for serious negotiations, Iran may seek engagement with Europe independently.
Whether there will be a new nuclear deal or not, Stricker and Fathollah-Nejad seemingly agree that it will not address the growing threats Iran poses. “The 2015 nuclear deal is obsolete and set to expire in a few short years. It permitted the expansion of Iran’s nuclear program over time, in any case, and legalized the situation we face now with Tehran’s nuclear program,” Stricker maintained, saying the JCPOA was never a long-term solution.
While some have voiced that the West may not have any more tools left to restrain Tehran, Stricker argues the opposite. “It is well past time for the West to revert back to pressure—and to sustain it, backed by a strategy to weaken and destabilize the regime—if there is to be a negotiated solution, but ideally, a free Iran,” Stricker said.
She suggests the West enforce US oil sanctions on Iran by targeting Chinese importers, interdicting shipments, destroying Iranian military assets to restore deterrence, and reimposing UN sanctions expiring in 2025 to reinstate global missile, military, and nuclear restrictions on Tehran. “America, Europe, and Israel can also decisively support the Iranian people in their struggle to rid the country of the root of most Middle East woes—the Islamic Republic regime.”