Iran says it’s ready to retaliate but not seeking war with Israel
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that Tehran would deliver a strong response to any further Israeli actions, however he mentioned that Tehran is not seeking war with Israel.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that Tehran would deliver a strong response to any further Israeli actions, however he mentioned that Tehran is not seeking war with Israel.
“We are not in pursuit of war with Israel. They promised us peace. But Israel has terrorised our guests in Tehran during our presidential inauguration. We want to establish peace. If you disagree, peace will not be established,” he said on Thursday during his trip to Qatar.
Pezeshkian’s trip came a day after Iran launched waves of ballistic missiles at Israel, prompting tensions between the two arch enemies. In response, Israel escalated its ongoing conflict with Tehran’s ally Hezbollah by sending more troops across the border into Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel would retaliate against Iran following the missile strikes.
"If the Zionist regime does not stop its crimes, it will face harsher reactions," Pezeshkian stated before leaving Tehran, according to Iranian state media. He reiterated his position during a joint press conference in Doha with Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, emphasizing that if Israel acts against Iran, Tehran will respond more severely.
Qatar, which does not have diplomatic relations with Israel, has been one of the mediators between Israel and Iran-backed Hamas. Israel has accused Qatar of being too soft with Hamas which has one of its political offices in Doha.
Pezeshkian also addressed the recent assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31 in Tehran, which Iran blames on Israel, though Israel has not officially confirmed its involvement.
The Iranian president called on the United States and European countries to pressure Israel to avoid further “destabilizing” the region, without taking responsibility for Tehran's proxies being active across all Israel's borders. Since Hamas's invasion of Israel on October 7, Iran's militias in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon have launched attacks on the Jewish state in allegiance with Hamas in Gaza.
The Qatari Emir, Sheikh Tamim, reiterated Doha’s commitment to mediating peace efforts, particularly in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, which has been ongoing for nearly a year. Efforts to reach a ceasefire have so far stalled.
While in Qatar, Pezeshkian also met with a high-ranking delegation from Hamas and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan. During his talks with the Saudi official, Pezeshkian expressed satisfaction with what he described as expanding relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and highlighted Iran's interest in strengthening ties across the region, in spite of the limited progress between Iran and Saudi since last year's resumption of diplomatic relations.
The Iranian president will continue his visit by attending the Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD) Summit in Doha, where he is expected to seek broader regional support against Israel. He is scheduled to address the summit, which includes 35 Asian countries.
All options carry grave consequences for the balance of power in the region and Israel's standing in an increasingly intense conflict flaring on multiple fronts.
Israel could heed US and international pleas for calm by downplaying the attack - just as it did when Iran launched its last missile volley in April - and hold off on a major response.
It might decide to target Iran’s political and military leadership, killing key figures as it has with Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In an even more extreme scenario, the Jewish state could take aim at Iran’s nuclear facilities, vital military sites, and economic infrastructure such as oil fields and refineries.
Still more devastating would be a combination of the last two options: an all-out strategy in which assassinations are paired with widespread destruction of military and economic infrastructure.
No perfect option
The first option is highly unlikely.
With the stakes so high, ignoring the attack may be seen from Israel as emboldening Iran and sending a message of weakness to its regional allies just as Israel appears to be gaining a military advantage, particularly in Lebanon.
The assassination route, while projecting unabashed strength, would not have a game-changing impact on the ground: Iran would quickly fill any personnel gaps with even more hardline cadres with redoubled hatred towards Israel.
The most extreme options also carry the most risks. Targeting Iran’s nuclear sites and infrastructure would almost certainly escalate into a full-scale war and drag the United States into the conflict - something both presidential hopefuls are on record as seeking to avoid.
The Hezbollah Factor
Iran has always been hopeful that if it faced a confrontation with Israel or the US, Hezbollah’s presence in Israel’s neighborhood would make them think twice.
But Iran’s deterrent force in Lebanon has now been significantly weakened by Israeli bombings and airstrikes. Israel systematically targeted and decimated Hezbollah’s leadership within two weeks, and its missile arsenal could be degraded next.
A hobbled Hezbollah would mean the end of Iran’s most effective deterrent force in the region. But might that lead Iran to pivot toward building a new deterrent? And what might this deterrent be other than a nuclear weapon?
This would be an enormous strategic setback for Israel and accelerate the very nightmare scenario it seeks to prevent.
One shot
For Israel, this moment presents a rare opportunity to deal a severe blow to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, one that it would be reluctant to pass up.
But the bigger question remains: Will President Joe Biden support Israel’s more aggressive actions, even if it means risking a new war in the Middle East?
The answer is far from simple. If the Biden administration doesn’t back Israel, the Democratic Party could appear feckless and weak, which may not help at polls. But if it chooses to support a military strike that cripples Iran, it could alienate the left wing of his party, potentially losing some progressive votes.
Such a move might also appeal to moderate Republicans who oppose Donald Trump, creating an unexpected coalition of support. Standing with Israel could also help guarantee the backing of the influential pro-Israel lobby in Washington.
Can Israel Truly Stop Iran's Nuclear Program?
Some experts believe that Iran’s nuclear program is too deeply entrenched underground for Israeli airstrikes to eliminate it entirely. While it’s true that Israel may not be able to completely destroy the program, a well-executed attack might delay it by a few years.
Furthermore, if Israel opts for a combined assault - targeting both Iran’s nuclear facilities and its leadership - it could wound the Islamic Republic to the point where it may no longer be able to rebuild its nuclear program. In this scenario, the collapse of the whole ruling system could become a real possibility.
Israel's response to Iran’s missile attacks will not only determine the future of the Middle East but also have profound implications for the US's role in the world.
The Biden administration will weigh its options carefully. A misstep could ignite a regional conflict with global consequences, but doing nothing might risk emboldening Iran and rattling the security of the region even more.
Iran’s Fragile State
For the Islamic Republic of Iran, the current situation is precarious. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is 85 - and in declining health.
The theocratic 'system' narrowly survived a major uprising just two years ago, and the country's economic conditions have worsened significantly.
Millions of Iranians are grappling with severe economic hardship, while tens of thousands of government workers have protested in the streets over delayed salaries and unpaid wages.
Unemployment remains high, and less than three months ago, Iran held a presidential election that saw a record-low voter turnout, ushering in a president with an unprecedentedly weak mandate.
In this fragile state, and after suffering significant blows from Israel - including the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on the day of the new president’s inauguration - Iran finds itself much weakened.
The question now is: can the Ayatollahs contain the growing discontent within the country if it is drawn into a war?
Asked by reporters if the Jewish state should hit at the disputed nuclear program after Iran's greatest-ever attack on its soil, Biden said, "no".
An international consensus among world powers in the G7 group was that retaliation was warranted but should be limited, he added.
“All seven of us agree that they have a right to respond, but they have to respond proportionally."
Iran launched around 180 missiles at Israel on Wednesday, the Israeli military said. The attack was largely repulsed with US and Western help but several missiles hit their mark, including an Israeli air base.
Israel's ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon told an emergency Security Council meeting on Wednesday that an Israeli riposte was inevitable.
"Let me be clear, Israel will defend itself. We will act," he said. "And let me assure you, the consequences Iran will face for their actions will be far greater than they could ever have imagined."
Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps said the attack was in response to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, warning Israel that it will strike again if there was an Israeli response.
Israel was aided in fending off a previous one-off missile fusillade from Iran in April by the United States, Western and Arab partners, after which Washington urged Israel to hold off on a counterattack.
But the US government is not trying to dissuade Israel from hitting back this time, CNN said citing two senior US officials.
"No one’s saying don’t respond. No one’s saying ‘take the win'," one source said, referring to Washington's argument to Israel in April.
War or Peace
Iran's president Masoud Pezeshkian accused Israel of forcing his country to react, saying that Tehran “is not looking for war but looking forward to peace”.
"We were asked to maintain calm. For the sake of peace, we have maintained self-restraint,” he said at a joint press conference with the Emir of Qatar in Doha. “If [Israel] acts, we will react more fiercely and harshly."
Israel declared Secretary-General Antonio Guterres persona non grata for what it said was insufficient rejection of Iran's attack.
Speaking at the Security Council later in the day, Guterres condemned the Iranian barrage on Israel the previous day, adding that the “deadly cycle of tit-for-tat violence must stop.”
“Time is running out,” he warned.
Meanwhile Israel announced the deaths in combat of eight Israeli soldiers in Lebanon, days after it launched an invasion of the country it said aimed at stopping rocket fire on its border communities by Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters.
Israel has landed devastating blows against Hezbollah, killing its leader Hassan Nasrallah in an aerial bombardment on Beirut on Friday along with much of its top leadership.
The attacks have killed up to a 1,000 people including many civilians while displacing nearly a million people.
A top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an explosion Tehran in July in an assassination widely blamed on Israel, raising Iran's ire but not immediately drawing any response at that time.
