The top commander of Iran's military operations abroad has not been seen in days and several stilted official allusions to him on Monday further fueled speculation about his whereabouts and the possibility of his death at Israeli hands.
While honoring the fallen, including hundreds of IDF soldiers lost in the war in both Gaza and south Lebanon in Israel’s war against Iran’s proxies, the country still wonders when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will wreak the revenge promised for last week’s 181 ballistic missiles, an underlying topic which bubbles beneath the surface.
The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah boosted the premier in public opinion amidst the country’s longest war, and now, Israelis want more. The mood was dampened soon after, however, as at least nine soldiers fell in Israel’s ground operation in southern Lebanon.
Just like Iran’s delayed retaliation to the July 31 killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Israel is biding its time, allowing the country to enjoy celebrations, albeit muted, for the new year, and now, the commemorations of October 7, in peace.
Not only is this a psychological war, but Israel must now weigh its options along with its powerful ally, the US, which has warned the response must be “proportional”.
President Joe Biden, known for his softly softly approach to Iran, still wields power over the Jewish state, with Israel’s Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, scheduled to visit the US to discuss strategy on Wednesday.
On Monday, marking one year since the bloodshed of October 7, when Iran-backed Hamas launched an air, land, and sea invasion of Israel, Israeli media focused on those lost in the deadliest single day for Jews since the Holocaust. The attack shocked the world, targeting one of the most militarily advanced nations.
But Iran is always lurking behind the scenes. Danielle Edelstein, a mother of four who lives in Tel Aviv, told Iran International: “Of course none of us knows what’s going to happen, but something has to happen. Last week’s attack was something no state can tolerate.”
For Netanyahu, whose popularity fluctuates almost daily, the response is crucial to his political survival. With each reminder of the horrors of October 7, the growing resentment toward Israel’s longest-serving premier becomes increasingly evident.
Israel’s Maariv newspaper surveyed the country last month, finding 47% felt he was most suitable for Prime Minister, even before the assassination of Nasrallah. That was a huge boost from polls in the wake of October 7 when around 70% of the country called for his resignation.
Last week, a Channel 12 poll also showed that Netanyahu’s Likud party would win a new election.
It has been the result of a series of killings, including leader of Hamas’s military wing, Mohammed Deif, in Gaza, the brazen killing of Haniyeh in Tehran, though Israel did not admit responsibility, and most recently, Nasrallah.
The IDF has been steadily wiping out the leadership of Hezbollah as airstrikes pound the group designated in countries such as the UK, US and Europe.
“We needed to see he was doing something,” said Ruthy Tuito, whose son is in the reserves. “We had so much inaction for such a long time, that these things give us hope that the government is standing up to the threats,” she told Iran International.
On Monday morning, marking the one-year anniversary, while commemorations were held at killing sites, Hamas launched more missiles at the time of the attacks last year, sirens first heard at 06:29.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah continued its assault on Israel’s north as the IDF pounds military infrastructure and advances airstrikes in Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut.
Iran’s proxy in Iraq also sent projectiles in the early hours of Monday morning, intercepted by the IDF, identifying the source only as “from the East”, usually reflective of those coming from Iraq.
“This isn’t going to end without some kind of more affirmative action,” said Roni Avrahami, who has been serving in the reserves since the beginning of the war. “No country can live like this. Nobody wants more war, but we need to take action and we need our allies to stand by us in the process. This is not an enemy which deals with diplomatic solutions.”
Israel is already battling threats on all its borders, the Iran-backed Houthis in the south on the Red Sea coast, and proxies in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank, and Iraq.
But for now, the question is when, not if, the country will retaliate for the second attack from Iran this year, and one which no nation would be able to let pass.
The leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' elite Quds Force Esmail Qaani did not appear alongside other top commanders Friday prayers led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Friday.
Iranian media reports on Saturday alleged that Qaani might have been in Beirut following the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and continued Israeli air strikes on positions of the Iran-backed group.
Some Iran watchers suspect he might have been killed or injured in Israeli air strikes.
"Many are asking about General Qaani. He is well and actively engaged in his duties." Iraj Masjedi, the deputy coordinator of the Quds Force said on Monday.
"Some are suggesting a statement be issued. Why a statement? There is no need for such an action," he said.
Adding to the mystery, an October 1 post on Qaani's X account - "God is great" - appearing to celebrate Iran's large missile attack on Israel that day was subsequently deleted.
At a Tehran conference on youth issues where Qaani was due to speak on Monday, an organizers said he “sent his regards” and apologized for not being able to attend the meeting due to his involvement in matters elsewhere.
Informed sources have told Iran International that even Qaani's family remained unaware of his whereabouts.
A targeted air strike on Beirut last week which aimed to assassinate Hashem Safieddine, a senior Hezbollah leader and potential successor to Hassan Nasrallah, has raised speculation about Qaani’s possible presence.
Qaani had traveled to Lebanon to meet with Hezbollah officials in an effort to strengthen the group, the New York Times, citing three unnamed Iranian officials, reported. Reuters also reported on Sunday that according to Iranian officials Qaani has not been heard from since Friday.
Senior Hezbollah official Mahmoud Qmati told Reuters: "I have no information, we are also searching for the truth of this matter."
Israel was not aware of Qaani's presence when it struck Beirut, the Times of Israel reported citing military sources.
"If Qaani was actually with Safieddine during the strike, the IDF was not aware of this and that he was not the intended target," military sources told the Israeli daily.
