New polling data reveals an equal divide among Israel’s Jewish population over the intensity of last month’s retaliatory airstrikes on Iran, while most Arab respondents consider the bombardment too weak.
The Israeli Democracy Institute found that on the Left and in the Center, the largest proportion of respondents think that the response was appropriately strong (46% and 48%, respectively), while a large minority hold that the response was too weak (Left, 28%; Center, 32%).
On the Right, however, the largest share of respondents (51%) think the response was too weak, and 41% that it was appropriately strong.
Responses were analyzed by vote in the 2022 Knesset elections. The IDI said: “We found a surprising degree of agreement, for which we have no satisfactory explanation, between the Zionist right-wing parties—the Likud and Religious Zionism, the majority of whose voters think that Israel’s response to the Iranian missile attack was too weak (50.5% and 56%, respectively).”
Of the Arab parties, Ra’am and Balad, voters are even more of the opinion that Israel’s response was too weak (54% and 67%, respectively), the IDI found.
In Israel, its Arab population is made up of Druze, Muslims, Christians and Baha'i.
In terms of the national mood while Israel is fighting Iran’s militias from across the region, the IDI found things have improved.
“Presumably due to Israel’s military successes in Lebanon, and perhaps due to the repulsion of the Iranian missile strike with relatively minor damage, we found a substantial increase in optimism among the Israeli public this month about the future of national security, and a slight increase in optimism about the future of democratic rule,” the center said.
Israel and Iran’s war of attrition escalated this year following Iran’s inaugural attack on Israel in April. It followed the alleged Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus which killed at least two senior Quds Force generals and other IRGC figures.
A second Iranian attack followed on October 1 in retaliation for the targeted killings of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders. Israel retaliated on October 26, targeting key strategic sites in Iran.
An alleged Israeli attack on July 31 killed the political head of Iran-backed Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. Another air strike in September killed the head of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hassan Nasrallah, triggering almost 200 ballistic missiles to be fired at the Jewish state last month. Israel retaliated with an hours-long aerial attack on critical infrastructure and military sites.
The outages, scheduled from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., are part of a government strategy to conserve fuel and reduce reliance on mazut, a pollutant-heavy oil, as power plants struggle to meet demand.
Although initial plans aimed to limit blackouts to certain provinces, the inclusion of Tehran province highlights the growing urgency of the situation. The new plan does not affect the capital itself but will result in power outages in surrounding cities and towns.
Iran’s energy infrastructure is grappling with one of its most challenging winters. Facing a critical natural gas, President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration has prioritized avoiding the widespread burning of mazut, a high-sulfur fuel oil, as a substitute at major power plants in cities like Arak, Isfahan, and Karaj.
To mitigate mazut emissions, the government ordered planned blackouts, with power cuts announced across several provinces. By Sunday morning, Tehran’s electricity distribution company joined the list, publishing a blackout schedule before the website quickly became inaccessible due to traffic surges.
This measure has been presented as an environmental alternative to mazut, with officials citing health concerns associated with the fuel’s toxic emissions.
On November 7, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani supported the blackouts on social media, saying that “scheduled blackouts can temporarily replace toxic emissions” from mazut.
The fuel shortages have left power plants scrambling, with limited gas and diesel reserves forcing heavy reliance on mazut. As of mid-November, ministry of energy data indicates that gas supply to power plants dropped 30% compared to the previous year, with diesel reserves reduced to less than 1.26 billion liters. The drop in liquid fuel stocks comes after a 36% reduction from 2022, adding pressure to an already strained power grid.
Political justifications and public reactions
Amid this crisis, some government officials have placed partial blame on the public, saying that high domestic energy consumption is contributing to the shortages. Mohammad Jafar Ghaempanah, executive deputy for Pezeshkian, urged citizens to lower heating use and electricity consumption, calling high demand a significant factor in the blackouts. He pointed to energy subsidies as part of the issue, suggesting that low prices encourage excessive consumption. However, critics argue that the government’s infrastructure management rather than consumer behavior, is the root of the crisis.
Chairman of the Board of the Electricity Syndicate Hassanali Taghizadeh has pushed back on claims that domestic use is disproportionately high, saying that Iranian households consume about half the electricity per capita compared to Europe.
“It’s wrong to say that public consumption is high. Our people consume far less electricity than the world, but we’re used to shifting blame onto them,” he said, calling for structural solutions rather than reliance on temporary blackouts.
Iran has the world's second largest natural gas reserves but years of negligence to invest in the gas fields and Western sanctions have reduced production.
Outlook on Iran’s energy policy
With around 80% of Iran’s electricity derived from thermal power plants reliant on gas, the administration faces mounting pressure to address what experts say is a systemic fuel shortages. Energy committee member Sepahvand said that without consistent gas supplies, disruptions may persist across both household and industrial sectors in the months ahead. Yet, long-term solutions, such as substantial investment in infrastructure or energy alternatives, remain elusive, leaving Iran reliant on interim measures like scheduled blackouts and continued mazut use.
Iran’s winter energy crisis has highlighted the country’s reliance on emergency measures, as officials grapple with a resource shortage exacerbated by decades of underinvestment. With blackouts set to continue, questions over energy policy and sustainability linger as winter sets in.
Immediately after Donald Trump’s election, Iranian officials and media sought to downplay its significance, while markets in Iran reacted negatively, anticipating a tougher US policy than under the Biden administration. However, this public stance now appears to be shifting.
The most notable call for efforts to lift sanctions came from former parliament speaker Ali Larijani in an interview with Khabar Online on Saturday. The seasoned Islamic Republic politician voiced serious concern over next year’s budget deficit, projected to exceed 30 percent and amounting to over $30 billion.
Larijani expressed dismay at the large budget deficit and emphasized that the only solution is a significant improvement in the economy. Although Iran always had deficits, but this year’s picture is worse than ever, he stressed. The only solution is to lift sanctions, he emphasized.
"These sanctions have become a barrier to our development. I’m not saying that removing them will solve everything, but it’s like a large stone has fallen into a stream. You need to remove that stone to allow the economy to flow smoothly. So, I believe we must make an effort to resolve this issue,” the former Speaker said.
So far, after six years of economic crisis, a year of conflict between Israel and Iran’s regional proxies, and Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has remained silent, giving no indication of whether he is open to major concessions. During Trump’s first term, he demanded that Iran halt its nuclear program, scale back missile development, and cease support for militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.
The new president has yet to clarify his policy toward the Islamic Republic, but most observers agree he is likely to adopt a tough stance once again. Meanwhile, ordinary Iranians, struggling with over 40% annual inflation, are increasingly eager for the government to show flexibility.
University professor Mehdi Motaharnia told a conservative website on Saturday that Donald Trump has returned to power stronger than ever, now supported by a Republican-majority Congress. While Trump emphasized his aversion to further conflicts during his campaign, Motaharnia noted that he is expected to take a tough stance on Iran.
"Regarding Iran, we will see an increase in tensions and sanctions. Trump will apply maximum pressure on Iran in an effort to push Tehran towards a new agreement. Trump believes in direct negotiations with Iran; he is even willing to personally engage with certain individuals in Iran,” Motaharnia argued. He added that while Trump is generally open to negotiations, the conditions he will set for Iran are likely to be stringent.
Mahmoud Jamsaz, a prominent academic and economist, emphasized that US political developments affect not only Iran but the entire world. Jamsaz, who has frequently spoken openly about the government’s misguided policies, argued that Iran is currently facing too many economic challenges to afford indifference to Trump’s election.
"In May 2018, when Mr. Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, the country’s inflation sharply increased and has continued to rise ever since. Such conditions have had severely damaging effects on Iran’s economy,” Jamsaz said.
Within Iran’s restricted space of public discourse, the economist tried his best to sound a warning. "Trump has said he doesn’t have much interest in dealing with Iran, stating only that he will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. This is where the issue depends on Iran’s policies. If Iran shows some flexibility and, for example, the JCPOA is somehow revived, we would see a positive economic impact. But if we move in a direction other than flexibility, conditions will naturally become more difficult."
