Four German parliamentarians have taken on political sponsorships for four Iranian protesters who were recently sentenced to death over their alleged involvement in the killing of a Basij militia member during the 2022 nationwide protests.
This announcement by Abolhassan Mahdavi, the temporary Friday prayer leader in Isfahan, comes amid heightened tensions between Israel and the Islamic Republic and concerns over the possibility of Khamenei being assassinated by Israel. It is not the first time that a senior cleric makes a similar statement, but the timing on this occasion provokes more questions.
Concerns over Khamenei's assassination
Even before the recent escalation between Israel and the Islamic Republic, discussions about Khamenei’s succession were already ongoing. These concerns have now intensified. In recent meetings with the Assembly of Experts, the body responsible for selecting the next Supreme Leader, Khamenei urged members to be ready to swiftly choose a successor if needed. Analysts interpret these remarks as stemming from his fear of an Israeli assassination rather than concerns about natural causes.
During Friday prayers, Mahdavi emphasized that Khamenei is physically healthy, showing no signs of illness. This reinforced the view that what the establishment is most concerned about is external threats.
A "Martyrdom" atmosphere in recent Assembly meeting
Assembly member Heydari Kashani described Khamenei’s recent meeting with the Assembly of Experts as taking place in an atmosphere of “martyrdom.” According to Kashani, participants wept as Khamenei emphasized the need for the Assembly to quickly select a new leader in his absence. This underscores concerns about potential unrest and the heightened risk of the regime’s collapse without Khamenei.
Mojtaba Khamenei: The leading candidate
Mahdavi disclosed that three candidates have been selected as potential successors, though their identities remain confidential. Among them, Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Ali Khamenei and his most politically influential offspring, is widely regarded as the leading contender.
Mojtaba has reportedly been groomed for leadership with his father’s approval. For over 27 years, he has played a behind-the-scenes role in shaping major policy decisions. Close associates, such as Abbas Palizdar and former IRIB head Mohammad Sarafraz, have also confirmed Mojtaba’s influence. His recent suspension of his advanced jurisprudence classes and the release of his first official video further signal preparations for a power transition.
Alireza Arafi: A likely second choice
Another potential candidate is Alireza Arafi, a trusted confidant of Khamenei. Arafi is the second deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, a member of the Guardian Council, Friday prayer leader of Qom, and an influential figure in the seminary. His position within the power structure enhances his chances of being chosen.
Hashem Hosseini Bushehri: A third possibility
The third likely candidate is Hashem Hosseini Bushehri. He is the first deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, the head of the Qom Seminary Society, and Friday prayer leader in Qom. His close ties to Khamenei and key leadership roles increase his prospects. In contrast, figures like Mehdi Mirbagheri, despite significant media coverage, are considered less likely candidates.
Unlikely candidates
Names such as Ali Khomeini and Hassan Khomeini, grandsons of Ruhollah Khomeini (the founder of the Islamic Republic), have also been mentioned. However, their prospects are slim due to their exclusion from the regime's upper echelons. Hassan Khomeini was effectively sidelined after being barred from running for the Assembly of Experts nine years ago.
Hassan Rouhani faced a similar disqualification, while Sadeq Larijani, the current chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council, failed to win a seat in the Assembly of Experts during the last election. Additionally, Larijani’s resignation from the Guardian Council reportedly displeased Khamenei, further diminishing his chances.
Former president Ebrahim Raisi, who served as president and first deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, died under suspicious circumstances in a helicopter crash a day before the election of the Assembly’s new chairman in May. Meanwhile, Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, who criticized the promotion of Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership at the Assembly meeting, was immediately removed from the Assembly’s presidium.
Broader challenges for the establishment
While Mojtaba Khamenei is considered the most likely successor, the regime faces far greater challenges than leadership transition. Escalating tensions with Israel, the re-election of Donald Trump, and mounting public discontent over chronic shortages of electricity, natural gas, and fuel have placed the regime's survival in jeopardy. Growing frustration with government inefficiency, mandatory hijab laws, and internet restrictions has only deepened public anger and unrest.
In Yasuj, southwestern Iran, a group of nurses and healthcare staff gathered to demand improved working conditions and wages.
Simultaneously, emergency personnel in Shiraz protested outside the Fars provincial governor’s office. Their demands, outlined by the Coordination Council of Nurses’ Protests, included inflation-adjusted salaries, special allowances, recognition of hazardous job conditions, and job security.
Healthcare workers, critical during the COVID-19 pandemic, have repeatedly protested in recent years over broken promises, amid persistent 40% inflation and stagnant salaries since 2019.
On Saturday, nurses at Loghman Hospital in Tehran voiced frustrations over unpaid wages and overtime, echoing broader discontent that saw work stoppages in over 70 hospitals across 50 cities earlier this year.
Retirees and workers raise economic concerns
In Tehran, oil industry retirees protested outside the National Iranian Oil Company, chanting, "The retiree's refrigerator, emptier than ever," and decrying their financial hardships. A former minister, Ali Rabiei joined the workers in solidarity.
Social Security retirees held demonstrations in the southern cities of Ahvaz and Shush, with slogans such as "Enough with warmongering, our tables are empty," and "Forget the headscarf, tackle inflation."
The steel industry retirees in Isfahan joined the wave of protests, gathering in front of the Steel Retirement Fund building to criticize deteriorating living standards.
A separate protest by retired educators took place on Saturday in front of the Presidential Office in Tehran. Holding 100,000 rial notes, criticizing the government’s failure to implement salary equalization laws. The banknote that would have been worth around $1,500 before the 1979 revolution is now worth just 15 cents.
Public transport drivers demand resolution
In Zahedan, Sistan-Baluchestan Province, public transportation drivers protested the month-long deactivation of their fuel cards. Despite assurances from provincial officials to resolve the issue, drivers claim no action has been taken. Their demands highlight the government’s inability to address even basic logistical challenges affecting livelihoods.
These protests reflect a broader crisis as citizens face increasing economic pressures amidst rising inflation, wage stagnation, and government inaction. Retirees, in particular, have held repeated protests over years, lamenting the worsening value of pensions and unfulfilled promises.
The consistent surge in demonstrations underscores mounting dissatisfaction with Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration, as workers and retirees across sectors demand the government address their grievances.
A resolution by the Economic Council, published Sunday, instructed the Ministry of Oil to create household gas tariffs designed to discourage overconsumption. The move includes categorizing more households as high-consumption users.
“The Ministry of Oil must ensure these tariffs have evident deterrent effects for excessive and unnecessary consumption,” the resolution read.
The tariff changes come alongside scheduled power outages initiated on November 10 due to insufficient fuel reserves. The government had halted mazut burning at select power plants but now plans to restart its use across industries and provincial power stations, sparking public health and environmental concerns.
Citizens, who already contend with heavily subsidized but rising energy costs, now face worsening air quality as mazut—a fuel laden with sulfur and toxins—fills the gap left by dwindling natural gas supplies.
Iran’s decision to calculate residential gas tariffs comes as part of broader fiscal policies to generate additional revenue. Under the new structure, commercial tariffs will also rise, with calculations based on recent peak rates.
Abbas Kazemi, former CEO of the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company, blamed mismanagement for the fuel shortages. Speaking to ILNA news agency, Kazemi said that critical diesel reserves were depleted after being sold on the stock market.
“Instead of stockpiling diesel for winter, the Abadan Refinery sold 400 to 500 million liters meant for power plants,” Kazemi said.
This mismanagement, coupled with a 36% decline in mazut and diesel reserves compared to last year, has pushed Iran’s electricity grid to a critical juncture. Reports indicate that natural gas supplies to power plants in November have plummeted by 30% year-on-year, leaving thermal power stations—responsible for 80% of Iran’s electricity generation—dependent on low quality mazut.
Speaking to Khabar Online on Sunday, Hadi Haghshenas, an economic expert and the governor of Gilan Province, said: "The lack of electricity primarily stems from insufficient gas supplies. The shortage of gas, in turn, is a result of inadequate investment in the country. The imbalances in the nation are turning into a tangled web, growing increasingly complex."
The use of mazut exacerbates air pollution. High levels of particulate matter from mazut burning increase the prevalence of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.
“The government’s reliance on mazut is forcing citizens to endure air pollution on top of power outages,” said Mohammad Jafar Ghaempanah, a senior government official, who also suggested reducing household energy consumption as a solution to outages.
As winter approaches, Iranians face an unprecedented convergence of crises with spiraling utility costs, power shortages, and public health risks in spite of being a nation endowed with vast natural gas reserves.
On November 13, the Islamic Republic's Judiciary issued death sentences for Milad Armoun, Alireza Kafaei, Amir Mohammad Khosheghbal, Navid Najaran, Hossein Nemati, and Alireza Barmarzpournak, the six individuals accused of killing Basij member Arman Aliverdi in Tehran's Ekbatan apartment complex. The charges against them remain contested, however, due to a lack of clear evidence linking them to the crime.
In a statement, German Parliament members Tobias B. Bacherle, Oliver Kaczmarek, and Anne Monika Spallek, along with Lisa-Kristin Kapteinat from the North Rhine-Westphalia State Parliament, announced political sponsorships for four of the accused, urging Iran's government to release them immediately.
"We express our profound concern over the devastating developments... They were all sentenced to death by the brutal Iranian regime without a fair trial and under inhumane conditions," the German MPs said, adding that the Islamic Republic "seeks to carry out executions to suppress resistance entirely."
The Ekbatan Complex case, tied to the broader unrest that followed the death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody, involves accusations that the defendants participated in Aliverdi's killing. A video circulating on social media showed Aliverdi, bleeding from the face and head as a protester kicked him. Authorities allege that protesters stabbed him, but the defendants deny the charges, with Ekbatan residents saying that Aliverdi was attempting to infiltrate the protests.
The controversy surrounding the case is compounded by reports of torture and mistreatment of the accused, with human rights organizations expressing concern over the fairness of the trial.
Iran's execution spree
The death sentences for the six protesters came against the backdrop of the Islamic Republic's execution spree over the past few years. At least 711 people have been executed in Iran since January, prompting female political prisoners at Evin prison in Tehran to call on authorities to stop issuing death sentences.
The Norway-based Iranian rights group Hengaw reported on Saturday that 13 of the 711 documented executions this year involved political prisoners. The group also documented 21 fatalities in Iran’s prisons in 2024, including four deaths of political detainees and eight deaths attributed to torture.
"Iran has an appalling record of executions, most recently evidenced by the execution of German citizen Jamshid Sharmahd," the four German parliamentarians said in their statement released on Saturday. "The systematic use of the death penalty to suppress political opinions constitutes a grave violation of fundamental human rights and has been strongly condemned by the international community."
On November 5, Iran’s judiciary announced that German-Iranian citizen Jamshid Sharmahd died in late October before his scheduled execution. “Jamshid Sharmahd's death sentence was set to be carried out, but fate offered no reprieve, and he died before the execution could proceed," the Judiciary's spokesman said.
Sharmahd was abducted by Iranian agents during a visit to the United Arab Emirates in 2020 and forcibly taken to Iran. In February 2023, Iran's Judiciary sentenced him to death on charges of endangering national security. Tehran says that Sharmahd was responsible for a 2008 attack on a mosque in Shiraz that killed 14 people and injured 200.
