A recent report by the Supreme Audit Court of Iran (SAC) has shown a sharp rise in the number of loss-making state-owned companies during President Ebrahim Raisi's tenure, underscoring the country's deep economic malaise.
Foreign policy analyst Amir Ali Abolfath told the conservative Nameh News website in Tehran that Trump is almost certain to adopt a maximum pressure policy toward Iran. He noted that Trump would likely leverage the strength of the US economy and international bodies, such as the IAEA Board of Governors, to advance his hardline approach.
According to Nameh News, nearly all of the pessimistic assessments made by Iranian pundits are based on the combination of hardline political figures who have been named as the likely members of Trump's cabinet.
Abolfath stated that Trump believes his maximum pressure policy against Iran was not sustained under President Joe Biden and seeks to reinstate it. However, he questioned its potential effectiveness, remarking, "What Trump says is not important; we need to see what he can do."
Meanwhile, foreign policy analyst Qasem Mohebali told another Tehran website that the period of neither war nor peace for Iran’s Islamic government is over. Now it is time for either peace or war. Mohebali added, "Trump will most certainly offer to negotiate with Iran and will wait for Tehran's response. The situation is more complicated than eight years ago, and Iran needs to be careful not to turn the opportunity for negotiation into a threat."
Mohebali said, "Eight years ago, Trump's policy hinged on harnessing Iran's nuclear activity and its influence in the region. With his maximum pressure policy, he tried to prevent Iran's access to financial resources needed to facilitate the country's development. However, that policy led to an escalation of tensions in the region and in Iran-US relations. Nonetheless, he is likely to resume his previous policy." Mohebali did not mention that Iran also needed the financial resources to maintain its proxy groups in the region that target Israel and US interests.
He noted that for the first time in 30 years, Republicans now control all key pillars of decision-making in the United States, a dynamic that could influence Tehran's relations with Washington. Mohebali suggested that this alignment might benefit Iran if Trump secures an agreement favorable to Tehran, as no one within the US political structure would be positioned to oppose or block his decision. Over the past three decades, Congress often had the power to obstruct deals made by presidents and their administration.
Over the next two months, Iran must consider all possibilities and prepare to negotiate if President Trump presents terms for a deal. Referring to Khamenei's "neither war nor negotiations" policy following Trump's 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, Mohebali suggested, without directly naming Khamenei, that this era has ended. He argued that Iran now faces a critical choice between war and peace, with Trump having the freedom to pursue either path.
Mehdi Motaharnia, another Iranian foreign policy analyst, said he believes the Trump administration will enter negotiations with Iran with all of its power. But this is going to be a negotiation much more difficult than holding talks with the Obama or Biden administrations.
Motaharnia remarked that in his second term, "Trump aims to leave a lasting legacy both domestically and internationally. His team is made up of like-minded conservatives, and negotiating with Iran is a key objective of his foreign policy. However, he negotiates on his own terms, presenting both opportunities and threats during the process. These talks are unlikely to focus solely on the 2015 nuclear deal; instead, he seeks to broaden the scope to include other issues, aiming to extract as many concessions as possible."
However, Motaharnia cautioned that if Iran refuses to negotiate, the situation could become significantly more challenging. In such a scenario, the Trump administration may strengthen its ties with Tel Aviv, ensuring increased pressure on Tehran. This could leave Iran vulnerable to a range of difficulties.
The Iranian government appears to have its own conditions for potential negotiations. In an interview with the Mossallass website, Iranian government spokesperson Elias Hazrati stated, "Iran can negotiate with Trump if the United States refrains from interfering in Iran's internal affairs and does not target our interests. Since 1979, the United States has consistently sought to harm Iran with the intention of regime change."
This stance contrasts with Trump’s assertion that he does not pursue a policy of regime change in Iran.
The resolution, drafted by Canada on November 6, was passed with 77 votes in favor, 66 abstentions and 28 votes against in a Wednesday session.
Russia, China, Belarus, Armenia, Cuba, Iraq, Indonesia, Oman, Pakistan, Algeria and Syria were among the countries that voted against the resolution.
The resolution condemned "the intensified, targeted repression of women and girls by the Islamic Republic of Iran, both online and offline, and the lack of accountability and justice measures for human rights violations perpetrated against women and girls."
It also expressed "serious concern at the discriminatory compulsory veiling laws and policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which fundamentally undermine the human rights of women and girls, expressed concern at the escalation in the enforcement of these laws and policies... and reaffirmed calls for all such laws and policies to be repealed."
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman on Wednesday condemned the resolution, calling it a politically motivated and unjustifiable move.
Iranian women are facing tougher crackdowns for refusing to wear the compulsory hijab amid Iran’s conflict with Israel.
Morality police are also back on the streets in larger numbers, having been scaled back since the death of a young woman named Mahsa Amini in their custody in 2022.
Witnesses report a stronger presence around Tehran’s central districts, describing police foot patrols, detention vans and police motorcycle patrols.
A widely publicized incident earlier this month at the Islamic Azad University in Tehran brought the issue of hijab defiance back into the global spotlight. In protest against enforcement measures on campus, a female student named Ahoo Daryaei, removed her clothing in defiance of security staff intervening over her hijab.
Daryaei was transferred to a psychological center shortly after her arrest, drawing accusations from activists that the government is attempting to undermine her protest by portraying her actions as a sign of mental illness.
Strong condemnation of execution spree
The Wednesday resolution passed by the UN General Assembly also condemned "in the strongest terms the alarming increase in the application of the death penalty by the Islamic Republic of Iran in violation of its international obligations, including executions undertaken against persons on the basis of forced confessions and without fair trial and due process."
The resolution expressed "serious concern at the disproportionate application of the death penalty to persons belonging to minorities, particularly ethnic and religious minorities, who are targeted for death sentences relating to their alleged involvement in political or religious groups, and at the continued execution of women, which has reached the highest number of reported executions of women since 2013."
The resolution comes against the backdrop of the Islamic Republic's uptick in executions over the past few years. At least 711 people have been executed in Iran since January, according to the latest report by the Norway-based Iranian rights group Hengaw.
A Saturday report by Hengaw said that 13 of the 711 documented executions this year involved political prisoners. The group also documented 21 fatalities in Iran’s prisons in 2024, including four deaths of political detainees and eight deaths attributed to torture.
Presented to parliament by Ahmadreza Dastgheib, the head of the SAC, the budget deviation report for Iran's fiscal year ending in March 21 highlights a dramatic escalation in financial mismanagement, with losses exceeding earlier projections by large margins.
According to the report, the government estimated that 17 state-owned companies would incur losses, amounting to 210 trillion rials ($300 million). Instead, the actual figures soared to 3,540 trillion rials ($5.057 billion) in total losses, spread across 134 companies.
"Eighty percent of these losses are concentrated in just six companies, including the Government Trading Corporation of Iran and the Targeted Subsidies Organization," the report added.
The second, an organization affiliated with the National Budget and Planning Organization, is responsible for implementing the provisions of the Targeted Subsidies Law and managing the funds related to this legislation.
Among the worst-performing entities was the Government Trading Corporation of Iran, a state-owned company implicated in multiple corruption scandals. Its losses jumped from 390 trillion rials ($557 million) in 2021 to 1,370 trillion rials ($1.957 billion) by 2023, according to the report.
Despite the figures, the corporation continues to receive significant state-backed loans, ranking as the second-largest loan recipient among executive bodies.
The Ministry of Agriculture, under whose purview the company operates, has also faced repeated allegations of corruption, including irregularities in livestock feed imports and scandals such as the Debsh Tea case.
The Debsh Tea scandal, which emerged in 2023, is one of Iran's most significant corruption cases. The Debsh Agriculture and Industrial Group, led by CEO Akbar Rahimi, received approximately $3.37 billion in government-subsidized foreign currency between 2019 and 2022, intended for importing tea and related machinery. Instead, the company diverted about $1.4 billion of these funds, selling the currency on the open market at higher rates, resulting in substantial illicit profits.
While the Government Trading Corporation of Iran has faced public scrutiny, the problem is far from isolated. Other significant loss-makers include the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) and the Iranian Health Insurance Organization. Collectively, these entities represent a growing financial burden on the state amid an already strained economy.
Supporters of the Raisi administration have portrayed its policies as a lifeline for struggling businesses and industries. However, the audit report starkly contradicts this narrative, exposing deep financial mismanagement and a growing crisis among state-owned enterprises.
As Iran grapples with economic constraints and public discontent, these revelations could fuel further scrutiny of the Raisi administration’s stated goal of revitalizing the country’s industries.
