Iran plans to continue its direct strikes against Israel, the spokesperson for Parliament's National Security Commission said on Saturday amid conflicting statements from Tehran officials about their strategic direction.
The swift capture of Syria’s second-largest city by opposition groups, including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has dealt a blow to Iranian-backed forces and raised questions about Tehran’s long-term strategy in the region.
Commander Hossein Daghighi, an advisor to the IRGC, vowed retaliation, saying, "The enemy is incapable of taking any effective action, as the resistance networks have been systematically organized.”
His remarks coincided with reports by opposition forces indicating that Assad's forces and his allies have been in retreat from their position around Aleppo.
“Their attempts to meddle in Syria will result in their hand being decisively severed, leaving a mark on history that will not be forgotten," Daghighi said on Saturday.
Another Iranian official commented, “The enemy has exploited the ceasefire conditions in Lebanon and seeks to plunge Syria into chaos.”
“I assure you that the enemies will fail as they have in the past," Iraj Masjedi, Deputy Coordinator of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard, said on Saturday.
Islamic Republic officials use the term "enemy" to refer to Israel or the United States.
Iranian state media also echoed this defiance, warning of repercussions for what they called a sedition. Despite such declarations, the rapid collapse of pro-Assad forces in Aleppo marks a challenge for Iran's Islamic government.
The fall of Aleppo comes after years of Iranian support for Assad’s military, including financial aid, weapons, and personnel from the IRGC and allied militias such as Hezbollah. These forces have propped up the Syrian regime in its efforts to reclaim territory since the civil war began in 2011. However, the latest rebel offensive has demonstrated the limits of Tehran’s capabilities that have weakened in recent months because of relentless Israel attacks against Hezbollah.
Opposition forces have exploited weaknesses in Assad’s overstretched troops, many of whom rely on Iranian support. Mustafa Abdul Jaber, a commander in the Jaish al-Izza opposition brigade in Syria, told Reuters that Iran’s focus on other fronts, including Gaza and Lebanon, has left gaps in its ability to defend Assad’s forces in Aleppo.
However, Iranian state media have also sought to downplay the implications of Aleppo’s loss, portraying it as part of a broader Western and Israeli plot to destabilize the region.
The Kayhan newspaper accused the US and its allies of reviving “takfiri terrorists” to pressure Iran to resume negotiations with the West over its nuclear dossier and disrupt its regional influence.
It claimed the goal was to sever vital communication links between Iran and its allies in Lebanon and Gaza.
"The Resistance Axes are the arms of Iran, our allies, and our friends. An attack on them is an attack on our capabilities. Over the past couple of days, during the war in Syria and Aleppo, several Iranians have been martyred. Therefore, the ultimate and primary target of this new war and the 'Aleppo sedition' is Iran."
Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, had earlier condemned the rebel offensive as a violation of Syria’s sovereignty.
“According to the existing agreements among the three guarantor countries of the Astana Process (Iran, Turkey, and Russia), the outskirts of Aleppo and Idlib are considered de-escalation zones. Terrorist groups' attacks on these areas constitute a blatant violation of the Astana Process agreements and put the positive achievements of this process at serious risk,” said Baghaei on Thursday.
However, these statements fail to mask the broader setbacks Tehran is facing. The death of senior Iranian IRGC commander General Kioumars Pourhashemi during the Aleppo clashes underscores the high costs of Iran’s involvement in Syria.
Rouydad 24, a moderate Iranian news website, reported that the resurgence of Syria's civil war is linked to recent developments in Gaza and Lebanon.
It that from the perspective of the attackers and their strategists, the ceasefire in Lebanon and Hezbollah's commitment to the agreement, "Hamas's isolation in its uneven war with Israel," and Russia's preoccupation with the war in Ukraine have created an opportunity to corner Bashar al-Assad and his political system.
“If successful, this opportunity could, on the one hand, secure Israel's security interests by limiting the Resistance Axis's ability to support Hezbollah and, consequently, Hamas, while also altering the foreign policy stance of Assad's political regime. On the other hand, it could force Damascus to accept demands pursued by Turkey and the United States through their occupation of parts of Syrian territory,” Jalal Khoshchehreh, an analyst wrote for Rouydad 24.
"Iran will undoubtedly proceed with Operation 'True Promise 3,' although the precise timing remains uncertain," lawmaker Ebrahim Rezaei said.
The operation, part of Tehran’s “True Promise” campaign, follows earlier missile and drone strikes in April and October. However, on Friday, the deputy coordinator of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards suggested a shift toward proxy warfare, reflecting the challenges Tehran faces after significant losses suffered by its allies.
Iran’s proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, have experienced substantial setbacks over the past year. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, along with several senior commanders, was killed in a September Israeli strike in Beirut. Israeli sources estimate that around 3,000 Hezbollah operatives have been killed since October 2023, while Reuters places the number closer to 4,000. Hamas has also faced severe losses in Gaza, with Israel pitting the number at over 17,000 fighters killed in the past year.
Rezaei's call for more direct attacks against Israel comes as Syrian rebels launch an unexpected offensive this week against forces loyal to Iran's ally, Bashar al-Assad, swiftly capturing Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city.
Other Iranian officials have accused Israel of being behind the rebel offensive. Tehran has spent upwards of $50 billion during the Syrian civil war since 2011 and has suffered an unknown number of casualties, both in the ranks of its IRGC officers and recruited Afghan and other militiamen.
On Wednesday, a 60-day ceasefire brokered by the United States and France began, temporarily halting the 14-month conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. During this time, Hezbollah launched more than 17,000 projectiles at Israel in support of Hamas’s October 2023 invasion.
Rezaei also addressed the possibility of negotiations with the United States, firmly rejecting the idea under current circumstances. "Regarding negotiations with the United States, it must be emphasized that all those who have approached the field of foreign policy with rationality and pragmatism, free from emotional bias, concur that engaging in talks with the United States under the current circumstances is not in the nation's best interest," he said.
Separately, Iran has reportedly signaled to European diplomats that it will not take unilateral steps to modify its nuclear program ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s return, according to a Saturday tweet by journalist Laurence Norman. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that the incoming Trump administration plans to revive the “maximum pressure” campaign, aiming to curtail Iran's economic capacity to fund armed groups and adversarial activities.
