Iran sees over 30% drop in rainfall as drought worsens
Rainfall across 29 Iranian provinces has dropped by nearly a third since October, according to the Iran Meteorological Organization, as the country continues to struggle with water scarcity.
Rainfall across 29 Iranian provinces has dropped by nearly a third since October, according to the Iran Meteorological Organization, as the country continues to struggle with water scarcity.
The country has experienced an overall rainfall reduction of 31.9% during this period, with the southern provinces of Sistan-Baluchestan and Hormozgan seeing the most dramatic declines at nearly 90% and just over three-quarters, respectively.
Mansour Shishehforoush, the Director General of Crisis Management for Isfahan Province, highlighted the severity of the situation earlier this year.
"Isfahan has a dry and semi-dry climate, and over 80% of its area is experiencing drought conditions," he said in July, noting that water tankers were being used to supply over 300 villages. Isfahan has since recorded a 68% reduction in autumn rainfall.
Despite the alarming trends, some regions have bucked the pattern. South Khorasan and Mazandaran have reported slight increases in rainfall, rising by 1.1% and 14.3%, respectively. These exceptions provide little relief, as other provinces, including Golestan and Gilan in the north, have experienced reductions of 16.6% and 7.8%, exacerbating the broader drought.
Sadegh Ziaeian, head of the National Center for Weather Forecasting and Crisis Management, flagged an additional concern: reduced water inflow into the Caspian Sea from neighboring countries, contributing to a decline in the sea's water level.
The rainfall deficit follows a year of weather extremes, including heavy flooding earlier in central and southeastern regions. These floods caused extensive damage, destroying homes and severing transport routes, highlighting the volatility of Iran's climate and the challenges it poses for crisis management.
"The rapid withdrawal of the army was unexpected. All information had been shared in advance. The Syrian army failed to resist, which was largely psychological—no one believed it would happen," he said.
Araghchi said that joint Iranian intelligence had thoroughly assessed the situation, Iran sharing warnings about opposition movements in Idlib with the Syrian government. However, he stopped short of explaining why Iranian forces, a key Assad ally, did not intervene to counter the rapid developments.
“What was surprising was, first, the Syrian army's inability to confront the situation, and second, the rapid pace of developments,” he added.
Araghchi said that while Tehran had a role in the 2017 Astana process - an initiative to build dialogue with opposition groups co-chaired with Russia and Turkey - direct military intervention was not part of Iran’s responsibilities in spite of the country having helped prop up the Assad government for over a decade.
The foreign minister acknowledged Assad’s own shock, saying, “Even Bashar al-Assad himself was surprised by the performance of his army. It was evident there was no accurate analysis within Syria.”
Araghchi also addressed Iran's frustration with recent developments undermining the Astana agreements. “One of the objectives of Astana was to help the government and opposition engage in dialogue. While we made slow progress in this direction, it did not proceed well because Assad’s government showed little flexibility,” he said, in a rare criticism of the decades-long president.
On Saturday, Araghchi participated in the Astana Meeting in Doha, where he met with the Emir of Qatar and other Arab officials.
For now, the situation remains unclear as to Iran's future role in the country, Iran's Supreme Leader set to address the issue in a speech on Wednesday. Ahmad Naderi, a member of the Iranian parliament, said: “Iran's future approach towards Syria depends on the behavior of those who have taken power in the country.”
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called the rapid fall of the Syrian government a sign of the weakening of both Moscow and Tehran, while US Secretary of State Antony Blinken linked the collapse to Assad’s refusal to engage politically.
