Iran has accepted tougher monitoring by the UN nuclear agency at its Fordow site after it greatly accelerated uranium enrichment to close to weapons grade there, the watchdog said on Thursday in a report seen by Reuters.
Iran’s reliance on imported gasoline has intensified amid a domestic energy crisis marked by rolling blackouts, gas shortages, and an overburdened electricity grid.
With the Islamic Republic facing growing economic strains, Washington may target the importation of refined petroleum products, further isolating Iran from the global energy market.
The Washington Institute's recent report pointed out that Tehran is now "newly susceptible to pressure against its oil product imports, not just its oil exports," as the country grapples with energy shortages that have triggered public frustration and political instability.
In particular, the Institute suggested that Washington may reapply sanctions from the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act (CISADA), which gives the US authority to penalize companies and governments providing essential services—such as insurance, financing, and shipping—for Iran’s gasoline and other petroleum imports.
The report says that imposing sanctions on gasoline imports is more feasible and less diplomatically complicated than targeting Iran's crude oil exports, which are primarily sent to smaller refineries in China.
Gasoline, produced by foreign refineries, is a relatively small market for these countries, making them more susceptible to US penalties.
"Enforcing sanctions on Iran’s gasoline imports is more straightforward and less diplomatically fraught than sanctioning its oil exports, most of which go to small refineries in China. This gasoline is produced at foreign refineries that may be reluctant to incur U.S. penalties just for the sake of a relatively small customer like Iran," wrote Patrick Clawson, the Research Counselor at the Washington Institute.
This potential strategy comes as Iran faces a sharp rise in domestic fuel consumption, including gasoline, with daily demand reaching at least 120 million liters—far surpassing the country's production capacity.
Last year, Iran spent $2 billion on gasoline imports, and its reliance on foreign fuel is expected to rise, with projected imports of 15 million liters per day. The country’s inability to produce enough gasoline domestically has made it increasingly vulnerable to external sanctions targeting its refined oil products.
As the Trump administration prepares to tighten its sanctions regime, European powers may lend their support, fueled by dissatisfaction with Iran's nuclear ambitions and its recent actions, including the acceleration of uranium enrichment and non-compliance with the International Atomic Energy Agency's inspections.
The timing is critical for both Iran’s government and its citizens, as energy shortages continue to strain daily life, potentially leading to social unrest reminiscent of the 2019 protests sparked by fuel price hikes.
Following a televised interview by President Masoud Pezeshkian on Monday, speculation about the potential increase in gasoline prices has grown in Iran. In the interview, the president referred to energy shortages and stated that gasoline prices would rise, but did not announce the timing of the decision.
At the same time, the government and parliament are facing a challenge regarding who will take responsibility for this price increase.
In addition to gasoline shortages, Iran is also grappling with a growing natural gas deficit, exacerbated by inefficient energy policies.
The shortage of natural gas, used in 90% of Iranian homes for heating, has left the country in a precarious position, especially as it heads into a harsh winter.
As Iran faces mounting internal challenges, the US may find leverage in pushing for a reduction in gasoline exports, further isolating Tehran from the global market and heightening the strain on its economy.
"The determination of Syria’s future and decisions about its destiny must remain in the hands of the Syrian people, without any destructive interference or external imposition," the Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Iran, which was a key ally of Bashar al-Assad, has provided military, financial, and political support to maintain the former Syrian president's grip on power since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. Iran’s backing included sending weapons, financial assistance, military advisors, and elite forces like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as well as allied militias.
In addition to urging a halt to conflicts, Iran’s statement, which followed the news of Assad fleeing the country, called for the safety of all Syrian citizens, the preservation of religious sites, and the protection of diplomatic and consular missions in accordance with international law.
"Tehran would continue its consultations with key regional stakeholders to promote security and stability in the country," it added.
"The long-standing and friendly relations between the peoples of Iran and Syria are expected to continue with a wise and forward-looking approach, based on shared interests and the fulfillment of international legal commitments," the statement concluded.
Meanwhile, Ahmad Nadri, a member of Iran’s parliament, suggested that the country shift its strategic focus following Assad’s downfall.
He proposed that Iran prioritize nuclear testing and reinvigorate the so-called resistance front, which he views as crucial for Iran’s regional influence post-Syria crisis.
Mohsen Rezaei, a member of the Expediency Council and an IRGC former commander wrote on his X account: "The fate of Syria must be determined by its people. The exploitation of foreign actors will result in nothing but the repetition of the Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq models."
Iran, along with Russia, have tightened their grip on Russia in recent years, both having large swathes of military infrastructure across the country.
Images published by Al Arabiya show Syrians storming the Iranian embassy Sunday, breaking windows, and damaging furniture, in a sign that Tehran's influence is no longer welcome.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman confirmed to Tehran Times that diplomats and staff had evacuated the embassy before armed forces arrived. Esmail Baghaei said that all personnel were now safe and in good health.
State-affiliated Iranian media have also softened their language in response to Assad’s fall. Before the collapse, opposition forces were regularly referred to as "terrorists" or "takfiris," but now they are being described as "armed opposition groups" or "militias," reflecting a shift in Iran’s public messaging.
Fars News, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported on the reasons behind the fall of Assad's government, saying that “the Syrian president did not pay enough attention to Iran’s advice regarding democracy and popular defense."
"The lack of popular support for the government, due to the dire economic situation, the weakening of the army, and corruption, along with the Syrian government's reliance on promises from foreign powers in exchange for abandoning resistance, are among the key mistakes," the government aligned publication wrote on Sunday.
Nadergholi Ebrahimi, a representative from Arak, and Hamid Rasaee, a representative from Tehran, have called for a closed session of parliament to discuss the situation as Tehran faces losing a key stronghold, the route key between Iran and the Mediterranean.
“The parliament needs updated, accurate, and clear information about the situation in light of the current regional circumstances,” Rasaee said.
Political analyst Rouhollah Rahimpour told Iran International that there appears to be no comprehensive or systematic analysis of the situation in Syria within Iran’s media.
“Some media outlets consider this a victory for Israel, while others view it as an internal Syrian matter,” he noted.
According to Rahimpour, Iran's internal calculations regarding Syria have been so disrupted by the recent developments that the government is struggling to form a clear stance on its position.
Costs of supporting Assad
The Islamic Republic’s support for Assad has come at a high cost. Human losses include over 2,100 Iranian forces killed in Syria, referred to as “Defenders of the Shrine,” and an estimated 7,308 Iranian casualties overall since 2011 when the crackdown on anti-Assad demonstrations turned into a civil war.
Financially, the cost of intervention is staggering. Former Iranian parliament members Heshamatollah Falahatpisheh and Bahram Parsaei have separately stated that Iran spent at least $30 billion in Syria, a figure that dwarfs other regional expenditures. This amount equals nearly 140 months of cash subsidies for Iran’s entire population, further fueling domestic frustration over the government’s priorities. However, a government document hacked last year revealed that Syria owes Iran $ 50 billion.
In addition to free oil supplies and loans to Assad's government, the Islamic Republic spent untold billions on its military involvement.
Internationally, Assad’s fall is seen as a significant blow to Tehran. A US official told CNN that the events in Syria mark the collapse of Iran’s broader strategy in the region. President-elect Donald Trump weighed in, suggesting that Assad fled after losing Russian support, framing both Russia and Iran as weakened powers.
The Israeli military announced a deployment in the UN-monitored buffer zone with Syria, emphasizing a defensive posture without direct involvement in Syrian affairs. Meanwhile, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called for a new Syria that does not pose a threat to its neighbors.
Since 2013, Iran’s presence in Syria has been justified by officials as a mission to protect Shia holy sites from Takfiri groups. However, evidence shows Tehran’s true aim was to bolster Assad’s government, a key ally.
IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency admitted in 2020 that the Quds Force had been instrumental in training Syrian forces to suppress opposition, leveraging tactics used during Iran’s own protests.
The Islamic Republic’s involvement also included the recruitment of foreign fighters, such as the Fatemiyoun Division (Afghans) and Zainabiyoun Brigade (Pakistanis).
With Assad’s government now toppled, the Islamic Republic’s decades-long gamble in Syria appears increasingly costly, both financially and politically, as questions mount about its influence in the region and its ability to sustain its ambitions.
"Iran agreed to the Agency's request to increase the frequency and intensity of the implementation of safeguards measures at FFEP (Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant) and is facilitating the implementation of this strengthened safeguards approach," the International Atomic Energy Agency said in the confidential report to member states.
On Wednesday, Laurence Norman of the Wall Street Journal tweeted that Iran will give more access to monitors from the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) after banning one third of the agency's team last year, citing officials. Measures are being put in place “to ensure Tehran’s increased 60% production doesn’t lead to diverted fissile material or a sudden push to weapons grade” uranium, he said.
Norman wrote that among the measures, there will be “more frequent IAEA inspections of Fordow and a few more inspectors”.
It is a turnaround for Tehran which last year banned around one third of the IAEA’s inspectors, accusing them of being politically motivated.
“The inspections to Fordow won’t however be daily,” Norman added, expecting an updated IAEA report soon.
Last week, the IAEA’s chief, Rafael Grossi, said: "Today the agency is announcing that (Iran's) production [uranium] capacity is increasing dramatically of the 60% inventory."
In an interview with Reuters in Bahrain, he said that Iran had been producing uranium enriched to up to 60% at a rate of approximately 5-7 kilograms per month, adding that the figure is now expected to increase significantly, "seven, eight times more, maybe even more."
Norman said that the latest move by Tehran “gives Iran an easy leverage item next time they face a censure”.
Writing on X, he said: “They can threaten to withdraw additional oversight. But it’s worth noting that would be a comp safeguards breach. Not a JCPOA breach. So that would be a more serious issue.”
Also last week, a US intelligence report from November revealed that Iran could rapidly build a nuclear weapon should it decide to do so.
"The Intelligence Community continues to assess that as of 26 September 2024, Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. Tehran has, however, undertaken activities that better position it to produce one, if it so chooses," the Office of the Director of National Intelligence report said.
"Iran has continued to increase its stockpiles of 20-percent and 60-percent enriched uranium, manufacture and operate an increasing number of advanced centrifuges, and publicly discuss the utility of nuclear weapons," the report added.
