The Israeli prime minister says his country's attacks against Iran and its allies in the region over the past few months have destroyed the so-called Axis of Resistance led by the Islamic Republic and changed Tehran's behavior.
Senior figures, including IRGC Commander Hossein Salami and Rasoul Sanaei-Rad from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s ideological office, have painted a picture of steadfast Iranian commitment while pointing to strategic failures within Assad’s leadership as the root cause of Syria’s collapse.
On Sunday, Hossein Salami described Iran’s intervention in Syria as a moral and strategic necessity. “Everyone saw that as long as we were there, the Syrian people lived [easily], because we were seeking their dignity,” he said.
Rejecting any ambitions of territorial expansion, Salami said, “We did not go to annex part of Syria’s land to our own; we went to ensure the dignity of Muslims would not be destroyed.”
Since 2011 alone, the Syrian Network for Human Rights estimates at least 23,000 Syrians have been killed, 87 percent by Syrian military and Iranian security forces.
In contrast, Rasoul Sanaei-Rad, a political affairs official at Ali Khamenei's office, adopted a more critical tone, focusing on Assad’s leadership failings. He called Assad’s fall disastrous and laid blame on “the deception of a portion of the Syrian people who supported the armed groups in taking control of their country’s fate.”
Sanaei-Rad said the events were caused by a “strategic mistake on Assad’s part,” a rare acknowledgment from Iranian officials of the limits of their allies’ effectiveness.
Bashar al-Assad’s fall marked a seismic shift in the region. The conflict began in 2011 amid widespread protests against corruption and authoritarian rule. Escalating violence by the government turned those protests into a full-scale war, with opposition groups such as the Free Syrian Army and Islamist factions like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) exploiting Assad’s military losses. Even with extensive support from Iran and its Lebanese militia, Hezbollah, the government’s fragmentation and economic collapse proved insurmountable.
Iran’s involvement in the conflict was extensive. The IRGC, led by Qassem Soleimani, played a central role in organizing pro-Assad forces, while Tehran also mobilized Shia militias from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. These forces provided critical support in key battles but could not prevent Assad’s ultimate downfall.
Iran deflects defeat, reaffirms regional role
Iranian officials have been quick to frame Assad’s fall not as a failure but as part of a larger struggle in the region. Esmail Kowsari, a member of Iran’s parliament and former IRGC commander, acknowledged on Sunday the difficulties in supporting Assad’s government.
“Until the very last moment, the Islamic Republic maintained its connection with Bashar al-Assad, but his inner circle, including the prime minister and some army commanders, were creating obstacles,” he said.
Similarly, the Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom emphasized the enduring strength of the so-called Resistance Front, made up of anti-Israel and anti-US militias around the region such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hamas in Gaza, which Iran sees as central to its geopolitical strategy.
In a statement, the group said, “The Resistance Front remains active in the unified struggle against Israel, under the shadow of divine support and assistance, and will not be rendered passive by the losses and costs of the Syrian government’s fall.”
Yemen's Houthis are still blockading global shipping in the Red Sea region and firing projectiles at Israel while Israel remains at war with Hamas in Gaza. A fragile 60-day ceasefire is underway between Israel and Hezbollah but militias in Iraq remain active.
The messaging from Iranian officials underscores the divide in the legacy left by Iran's interference in Syria, a key base militarily and economically for Tehran.
While figures like Salami insist that Iran’s involvement in Syria was a success, others such as Sanaei-Rad’s criticism of Assad’s leadership faults signals a willingness to distance Tehran from the perceived failures of its ally.
While Iranian leaders reject the notion of defeat, Assad’s fall has undeniably strained Tehran’s resources and credibility. The intervention came at great financial and human cost, and its ultimate inability to sustain Assad’s government highlights the limitations of Iran’s influence.
In addition to being a corridor to fund and arm Iran's allies, Syria was also a critical trade route for the likes of Iranian oil amidst global sanctions.
By shifting blame to Assad’s errors, Iranian officials are now desperately trying to reframe a drastic landscape change.
Schools, universities, government offices, and banks have been shuttered in regions stretching from Tehran to West Azarbaijan, with worse winter months still to come.
Authorities say the measures are necessary to conserve resources. However, energy experts warn of a far more critical issue: a deepening infrastructure crisis.
Mehdi Arab Sadegh, an energy diplomacy analyst, has predicted severe repercussions if current conditions persist.
“Iran is on the brink of a 40% blackout in just 18 days,” he said in a statement on X. According to him, the nation’s strained infrastructure, limited liquid fuel reserves, and overburdened gas-to-electricity systems are driving the closures.
In Tehran, schools, offices, and universities were closed Sunday due to concerns over falling temperatures and air pollution. The northern provinces of Mazandaran and Golestan have taken similar steps, shutting down institutions and non-emergency offices in a bid to conserve energy.
In South Khorasan, local task forces ordered all government facilities to close, while West Azarbaijan announced closures aimed at saving gas and electricity.
The scale of the shutdowns echoes this summer’s electricity blackouts when Iran’s power grid collapsed under peak demand during soaring heat.
Iran’s energy sector has long struggled with systemic failures stemming from decades of underinvestment. Despite being home to some of the world’s largest natural gas reserves, the country faces a staggering $250 billion investment shortfall in its oil and gas sector and an additional $19 billion gap in its electricity infrastructure.
These failures have led to recurring blackouts, affecting Iranians during both the intense heat of summer and the cold of winter.
Recent policy shifts have only deepened the strain on households. In November, higher gas tariffs were introduced to increase state revenue. Although officials have blamed citizens for excessive consumption, energy analysts argue the real problem lies in outdated infrastructure and insufficient capacity to meet growing demand.
Arab Sadegh outlined the dire state of the grid, explaining that the South-to-North gas exchange corridor is overstretched and unable to meet the needs of power plants. “If we manage to supply 150 million cubic meters of gas daily, it would be a significant achievement,” he added.
The economic backdrop is equally dire. On Saturday, the Tehran currency market saw the value of the dollar surge past 750,000 rials, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and speculation about renewed US pressure. With inflation already squeezing Iranian households, critics argue the closures reflect the government’s inability to address the crisis comprehensively.
The government’s handling of energy issues is further complicated by its financial priorities abroad. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently said that the Islamic Republic has spent over $20 billion to support Hezbollah, while Iranian officials have acknowledged spending $30 billion in aid to Syria. Critics contend that these expenditures have exacerbated domestic crises, diverting funds from critical infrastructure investment.
Meanwhile, Iran has turned to petrochemical units to produce naphtha as a substitute for gasoline. While cheaper, naphtha is more polluting and less efficient.
As closures and energy shortages disrupt daily life, the government has sought to shift responsibility onto citizens. In a recent video appeal, President Masoud Pezeshkian urged Iranians to reduce consumption to help address shortages in the energy system. Yet, the crisis appears far from resolved. Tehran's air pollution remains severe, and experts warn that the current measures are insufficient to prevent further disruptions.
Iran’s ability to navigate the coming months will depend on whether it can balance domestic demands with its geopolitical ambitions. For now, the country remains trapped in a cycle of shortages, shutdowns, and makeshift solutions, as millions brace for what could be a harsh and uncertain winter.
"A year ago, I said we'd change the face of the Mideast, and we're indeed doing so. Syria is not the same Syria. Lebanon is not the same Lebanon. Gaza is not the same Gaza. And the head of the axis, Iran, is not the same Iran; it has also felt the might of our arm," Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement on Sunday.
Since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, the Israeli military has been engaged in a multi-front war against Iran and its allied militants. The Israeli offensive has led to a chain of events that resulted in the decimation of Hamas and Hezbollah, the killing of their leaders and commanders, and direct attacks on Iranian soil.
Iran also lost the route it used for arming Hezbollah after the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, one of its most important allies in the Middle East who was toppled in a swift offensive by rebel groups led by the Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Since Assad's downfall, Israel has ramped up its airstrikes against the positions of Syrian army and Iran-backed militants across the Arab country on the pretext of preventing rebels from accessing advanced military assets that might be used for attacks against the Jewish state.
"On Saturday, Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem said so openly: 'Hezbollah has lost its military supply route through Syria.' This is, of course, additional testimony to the severe blow with which we have struck the entire Iranian axis," Netanyahu said in his statement.
However, he warned that the IDF airstrikes will continue to prevent Tehran and its proxies from attacking Israel. "I unequivocally declare to Hezbollah and to Iran: In order to prevent you from attacking us, we will continue to take action against you as necessary, in every arena and at all times."
Syria's de facto leader hits back
The ongoing Israeli airstrikes against Syria have outraged HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Muhammad al-Jolani.
In an interview published on Syria TV's website, the rebel leader urged Israel to halt its strikes, saying the attacks cannot be justified as Iranian and Hezbollah forces are no longer operating in the Arab country.
Netanyahu on Sunday said his country has "no interest in a conflict with Syria."
"We will determine Israeli policy regarding Syria according to the reality on the ground. I recall that for decades Syria was an active enemy state toward Israel. It has attacked us repeatedly. It allowed others to attack us from its territory. It allowed Iran to arm Hezbollah through its territory. In order to ensure that this does not recur, ever, we have taken a series of intensive actions in recent days," the Israeli prime minister said.
