The latest US sanctions targeting Russian and Iranian oil could significantly disrupt Russia's oil supply chains, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report on Wednesday.
The new US sanctions on Iran and Russia announced last Friday, target entities responsible for over one-third of Russian and Iranian crude exports in 2024.
"We maintain our supply forecasts for both countries until the full impact of sanctions becomes more apparent, but the new measures could result in a tightening of crude and product balances," the IEA said.
Washington's latest sanctions package includes over 160 tankers, which the IEA estimates transported about 22% of Russia's seaborne oil exports in 2024.
The agency highlighted the effectiveness of earlier vessel designations, saying they had "reduced the activity of designated tankers by 90%."
The US Treasury on Friday imposed sanctions on several vessels involved in transporting Iranian oil, as part of a broader effort to disrupt Russia's network of ships evading US-led energy sanctions.
Of the 183 blacklisted vessels, eight were identified as having transported both Russian and Iranian oil, the Treasury reported.
"Several of the vessels sanctioned today have shipped not only Russian oil but also sanctioned Iranian oil," the Treasury said.
The vessels are part of a "shadow fleet," described by the Treasury as a network using "high-risk shipping practices" to avoid detection.
Many of these ships have been involved in transporting Russian oil at prices exceeding the $60-per-barrel cap imposed by G7 countries, the Treasury added.
Early January saw crude oil prices rise above $80 a barrel, what the IAE described as a result of tighter sanctions and a cold snap in the northern hemisphere.
However, the IEA anticipates that strong supply growth outside OPEC+ and the potential for OPEC+ to ease production cuts could moderate further price increases.
The IEA forecasts global oil supply growth of 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, with non-OPEC+ production contributing 1.5 million bpd.
While IEA's latest report did not provide an estimate for market surplus in 2025, its December forecast projected at least 950,000 bpd, indicating comfortably supplied market.
Abbas Araghchi addressed Iran’s stance on nuclear talks in an interview with state TV, saying discussions with Washington are not on the table because it withdrew from an international deal on the issue.
“We are not negotiating with the US government on nuclear issues until they return to the JCPOA or, in any case, announce their policy on this matter,” he said, referring to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
"The new US administration has not yet taken office. We will only participate in honorable negotiations based on mutual respect, not under pressure and sanctions, and for our own interests," he added.
"The JCPOA formula remains valid and in place."
Negotiators from Iran and the European E3 countries—France, Britain, and Germany—held a third round of talks on Iran's nuclear program in Geneva on Monday, according to an Iranian deputy foreign minister.
"We discussed ideas involving certain details in the sanctions-lifting and nuclear fields that are needed for a deal," Kazem Gharibabadi said in a post on X. Describing the talks as "serious, frank, and constructive," he noted that both sides agreed to continue their dialogue.
"Sides concurred that negotiations should be resumed and to reach a deal, all parties should create and maintain the appropriate atmosphere," he added.
The JCPOA, signed in 2015, aimed to ensure the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief.
The US withdrawal from the deal in 2018 under the first Trump administration led to renewed sanctions and escalated tensions. Efforts under the Biden administration to revive the deal have been marked by significant challenges, including disputes over sanctions and verification mechanisms.
Araghchi said that in Geneva, Iran will engage with representatives from the EU and three European countries in a bid to revive the nuclear agreement.
“The main goal of the two-day talks in Geneva with representatives from the three European countries and the European Union is to find a way to restart nuclear negotiations and resolve this issue,” Araghchi explained.
He affirmed Iran’s openness to dialogue, provided it adheres to Iran’s terms.
“Regarding the nuclear issue, Iran has never left the negotiation table nor said to oppose negotiations, as it is confident in the peaceful nature of its nuclear program. If there is an honorable and dignified negotiation, we will join it,” he said.
Talks on arms supplies to Russia
Araghchi signaled Iran’s readiness to negotiate with Europe on Ukraine, provided the talks address mutual concerns.
“If Europe complains about Iranian weapons being in Russian hands, it must also answer for its military cooperation in our region and with the Zionist regime. We are ready for dialogue with Europe, but it must be based on mutual concerns,” he added.
Iran has significantly increased its military support to Russia, supplying hundreds of Shahed-136 drones, which have been extensively used in Ukraine to target infrastructure and civilian areas.
In addition to direct deliveries, Iran has collaborated with Russia to establish a drone manufacturing facility in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, which became operational in July 2023.
The factory aims to produce thousands of drones annually, bolstering Russia's self-sufficiency in drone production.
Beyond drones, Iran has supplied Russia with short-range ballistic missiles, with satellite imagery revealing shipments of 220 missiles in 2024.
"All the assassinations and acts of terror we see happening in Europe and elsewhere, can we see the footsteps of Iranian nationals or other nationals?" Pezeshkian was quoted as saying in translated remarks in a video preview of the NBC News interview.
"Have there been any links between those terrorist assassinations and Iran? Iran has never been in pursuit of assassination and acts of terror," he added.
Asked by anchor Lester Holt in the interview in Tehran whether Iran had plotted to kill Trump, Pezeshkian replied: "Never by no means."
Holt persisted, asking Pezeshkian if he would promise never to seek to kill Trump.
"Ever since the beginning, we never intended to do that," Pezeshkian said.
The US Justice Department in November unsealed murder-for-hire charges against an Afghan national it said was tasked by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps with assassinating Trump.
Farhad Shakeri, 51, who is believed to be in Iran, was asked by an IRGC official "to put aside his other efforts on behalf of the IRGC and focus on surveilling, and, ultimately, assassinating (Trump)", the department said.
"Shakeri indicated to IRGC Official-I that this would cost a 'huge' amount of money. In response, IRGC Official-I said that 'we have already spent a lot of money ... [s]o the money's not an issue'."
Iranian officials have repeatedly denied any plot to kill Trump. However, that contradicts several statements by high-ranking officials who have threatened the former US president in the past few years.
Following Khamenei’s proclamation of a “harsh revenge” against the US killing of Soleimani, his official account on X (then Twitter) published an image of Trump on a golf course under the shadow of a drone, hinting at his targeting. That post has since been deleted.
Khamenei’s official website also released an animation with the same theme, showing IRGC forces killing Trump using a robot.
Message of peace
In his interview with NBC News, Pezeshkian added that Tehran is committed to peace and de-escalation, in a dovish message likely aimed at the incoming US administration
"The Islamic Republic of Iran is committed to peace and de-escalation in the region and globally, condemns the Zionist regime's war-mongering, aggression, and genocide, and stands ready for honorable and equal negotiations," Masoud Pezeshkian added.
The Washington-based Abdorrahman Boroumand Foundation for Human Rights in Iran reported last year that the Islamic Republic had kidnapped, disappeared or extrajudicially 452 people beyond Iran's borders in its nearly half-century existence.
Providing few details, Iran's vice president for strategic affairs said in a preview of an online interview that sanctions on Iran and its allies deepened security challenges and made them vulnerable to Israeli booby traps.
“Our colleagues had purchased a centrifuge platform for the Atomic Energy Organization, and it was discovered that explosives had been embedded inside it, which they managed to detect," he told the Hozour (Presence) online program.
It was not clear when the alleged incident occurred.
A power failure at Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment site in April 2021 apparently caused by an explosion was decried by Iran as an act of "nuclear terrorism".
The murky incident was neither fully explained by Iran nor claimed by Israel, which has repeatedly carried out cyberattacks and assassinations aiming at Tehran's nuclear program.
Iran says it is pursuing peaceful nuclear technology, while Israel and the United States believe Iran may ultimately seek a bomb.
Zarif detailed how sanctions compel Iran and its allies to rely on intermediaries, creating vulnerabilities that have allegedly been exploited by Israel.
“Instead of being able to order equipment directly from the manufacturer, sanctions force you to rely on multiple intermediaries for such purchases," Zarif said.
"If the Zionist regime infiltrates even one of the intermediaries, they can do anything and embed anything they want, which is exactly what happened.”
A series of coordinated explosions in Hezbollah's communication devices in September 2024 arose from Israel's diligent infiltration of those suppliers, he added.
“The issue with the pagers in Lebanon turned out to be a multi-year process, meticulously orchestrated by the Zionists."
The September incidents in Lebanon involved the detonation of around 5,000 pagers and 1,000 walkie-talkies, resulting in at least 32 deaths and more than 3,000 injuries.
Though Israel has not taken credit for the attacks, Israeli intelligence operatives appear to have covertly modified the devices, embedding explosives during a decade-long operation involving fake companies and deceptive distribution tactics.
In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) suspended communication devices, conducting inspections to prevent recurrence. The Iranian Civil Aviation Organization also banned electronic communication devices, barring mobile phones, on commercial flights.
"These are, in fact, some of the damages caused by sanctions, which have made circumventing them a necessity for us," Zarif said. "In addition to financial losses, there have also been significant security risks.”
