On Saturday, Iran's president criticized US efforts to curb the country's energy exports but made no mention of the letter President Donald Trump said a day earlier that he had sent to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Speaking at an event marking new investments in the South Pars gas field, Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran had endured a difficult winter but managed to keep gas supplies flowing.
“We went through a tough winter,” Pezeshkian said. “Once again, I apologize to the people for power cuts and other issues. Naturally, we must also apologize to industries and producers because we could not fully support them.”
Turning to US sanctions, Pezeshkian dismissed Washington’s efforts to stifle Iranian fuel exports. “They try and say they will bring our fuel exports to zero, that we won’t be able to sell our oil,” he said. “I believe we must engage with a proper logic and not fight amongst ourselves. Their hope is in our internal divisions.”
President Trump announced on Friday that he sent a letter to Khamenei offering talks toward a deal on its nuclear program but warned that the alternative was a military intervention.
"I hope that Iran, and I've written them a letter saying, I hope you're going to negotiate because if we have to go in militarily, it's going to be a terrible thing for them," Trump said in a segment of the interview broadcast on Friday.
"There are two ways Iran can be handled, militarily or you make a deal. I would prefer to make a deal because I'm not looking to hurt Iran," Trump added. "They're great people. I know so many Iranians from this country."
Since returning to office, Trump has imposed fresh sanctions targeting companies and the so-called shadow fleet of older oil tankers transporting Iranian crude.
Despite US sanctions, Iran’s oil exports have generated more than $35 billion annually in recent years, primarily from sales to China. However, this revenue has not been enough to pull the oil-dependent economy out of the severe crisis it has faced since 2019.
Since early September, Iran’s national currency, the rial, has lost half of its value due to military and geopolitical setbacks in the region and Trump’s election, as he has pledged to significantly cut Tehran’s oil exports.
Pezeshkian praised efforts by Iran’s oil and gas sector to maintain household energy supplies but said the country must improve efficiency and expand renewable energy.
Pezeshkian announced a $17.5 billion investment in power infrastructure aimed at increasing sustainability and allowing more oil and gas to be sold abroad.
Iran needs $45 billion in investment to resolve its chronic winter energy deficit and worsening air pollution, the country's Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad said in January.
“If we can expand electricity use for heating and cooling, relying on wind and solar energy, then we can export our resources at far better prices,” said Pezeshkian.
Successive Iranian governments have struggled to meet soaring consumption, especially during colder months when power plants are forced to burn polluting fuels that compound the problem of air quality in urban areas.
Iran possesses vast reserves of natural gas, but rising domestic demand and lack of investment to maintain and expand the infrastructure means the country is often a net-importer of energy.
“Iran is very alone at the moment” said Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DC.
The push for a resolution to a decades-old insurgency by the Kurdish Workers Party against the Turkish state comes as the Middle East's tectonic plates shift and global alliances are in flux as President Donald Trump cast upends US commitments.
"We have a completely changed strategic situation in the Middle East," said Barkey, "no one at the moment has any dominance in the Middle East and it's up for grabs."
"Iran, for the foreseeable will not be able to do what it used to do in the past," added Barkey.
After 15-months of direct combat and proxy warfare pitting Iran against Israel throughout the region, Tehran has come off worse.
It's main ally Hezbollah in Lebanon took a heavy toll from an Israeli ground invasion and air strikes. Most notably, Iran's oldest ally in Syria's Assad dynasty was toppled by Sunni Islamist rebels closer to Turkey, giving Ankara a new regional ward.
How Turkey benefits from peace with the PKK
The jailed leader of the PKK Abdullah Ocalan called on its members to lay down arms in an address from his island prison near Istanbul on Feb. 27.
That announcement was followed by a ceasefire days later which ended 40 years of armed struggle for a Kurdish homeland.
While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rapprochement is largely driven by domestic political considerations to create a new constitution enabling him to run for a third presidential term in 2028, Turkey stands to likely make gains in Northern Iraq, where many PKK fighters are stationed.
Turkey’s gains may be Iran’s losses.
“Both Turkey and Iran would like to influence Iraqi Kurds,” said Barkey.
The Turks and PKK making peace formally will help in those efforts to increase influence.
The relationship between Turkey and Iran Barkey characterized as complex, but one in which there are at least cordial ties and a stable border. Both Islamic nations, however, are revisionist with ideals of grandeur.
Turkey's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, said in an interview with Al Jazeera Arabic last month that Iran's foreign policy of relying on militias led to more losses than gains.
Shifting tectonic plates
Recent diplomatic tensions between Tehran and Ankara represents a broader shift in the Middle East.
Add to the mix Turkey reportedly offering to send peacekeepers to Ukraine, contingent on the war ending with Russia – and Israel, striking southern Syria and attempting to increase ties with Syrian Kurds.
Israel says it part of a new policy to demilitarize southern Syria, but the new government led by the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) hardline Islamist group which is close to Turkey has denounced Israel.
“The Israelis also are risking by going too far into trying to punish the Syrians, forcing the Syrians, essentially to look for allies,” said Barkey on Eye for Iran.
One ally that Damascus will not reach out to is Tehran, maintaining its anti-Islamic republic stance.
“That’s it,” said Barkey on there being zero chance that Iran could reestablish itself in Syria, while Ankara enjoys a close relationship with the new HTS leaders.
“The Syrians and HTS blame Iran for propping Assad in power all these years, that Assad would not have succeeded in staying in power this long, or even winning the civil war if it wasn't for Iranian support.”
Reports: The offer of Turkish peacekeepers in Ukraine
Turkey is not signaling support of Ukraine by offering up peacekeepers, said Barkey.
Rather it's a chance for Erdogan to appear relevant on the world stage. Iran, on the other, despite its relationship with Russia, is irrelevant.
“Before Iran was a very useful if not a direct instrument of the Russians but a useful actor on the international scene because it created so many problems for the United States and its allies,” said Barkey.
Barkey questioned Iran's ability to send ballistic missiles to Russia after significant blows by Israel to its stockpile.
Meanwhile, Russia has positioned itself as a mediator between Washington and Tehran over potential nuclear talks.
"No leader has done more for Russia than Trump, so Moscow could pressure Iran," Barkey told Eye for Iran.
"It is quite possible that the Russians will put some pressure on the Iranians, whether it's real or make believe," said Barkey.
The changing alliances, new world order and the stable unpredictability of Trump, may further destabilize the Islamic Republic while Turkey gains the upper hand in the region.
You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran with Henri Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, on YouTube or you can listen on Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Castbox or any major podcast platform.
