China has said it will urge Iran to avoid conflict as tensions over its nuclear program grow, ahead of a trilateral meeting with Russia and Iran on Friday, as Beijing ramps up efforts to be seen as a diplomatic power.
Outlining the challenges facing policymakers considering such action, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy argued that such an action would be the opening round of a long campaign built upon decades of covert efforts and will escalate in pace and intensity.
"A preventive attack is unlikely to be a solitary event, but rather the opening round of a long campaign employing military strikes, covert action, as well as economic, informational, and other elements of national power," the report said.
The research, written by Michael Eisenstadt, said that a successful preventive strike against Iran's nuclear program requires: eliminating materials and facilities, enabling covert rebuilding disruption, securing political support, and crafting a post-strike strategy to deter Iran from rebuilding.
However, the threat of military action could prompt Iran to hide materials, complicating future strikes. It also risks pushing Iran to abandon its current nuclear hedging strategy and accelerate weaponization.
Eisenstadt suggested that the preparatory phase has already begun, citing Israel's airstrikes targeting Iranian radar systems in April and October 2024, which weakened air defenses around key nuclear and missile sites.
"A lengthy campaign would be required because key installations associated with Iran’s nuclear program are located at over a half-dozen sites," the report said, noting that some are hardened and buried, making complete destruction unlikely.
According to the research, Israeli leaders view Iran's current vulnerability as an opportunity to degrade its nuclear capabilities. "Many Israelis believe that Iran’s current weakness provides a unique opportunity to destroy, or at least set back, its nuclear program through a military strike".
US President Donald Trump has reaffirmed his position that "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon," expressing readiness for diplomatic engagement but suggesting military action as a last resort. He said there are "two ways of stopping [Iran], with bombs or with a written piece of paper."
The report also warned of Iran’s likely response to a possible attack, saying that it could range from measured retaliations to severe escalation, including potential withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) or further restrictions on the UN nuclear watchdog's operations in the country.
"Tehran might feel a need to respond massively to a preventive strike, although recent setbacks inflicted by Israel on its proxy forces and missile production capability may limit its ability to do so. It could also respond by withdrawing from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and expelling International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors," it added.
In 2023, Iran already banned at least one third of inspectors with the UN's nuclear chief voicing frustration at Iran's intransigence.
Eisenstadt also highlighted Iran's resilience, warning that following a strike, Iran would likely attempt to rebuild its nuclear capabilities, potentially hiding clandestine facilities in civilian areas or deeply buried sites believed to be beyond the reach of Israel or the United States.
"Thus, in the aftermath of a strike, Iran will likely try to rebuild, perhaps hiding small clandestine centrifuge-enrichment and weaponization facilities in plain sight (e.g., in residential areas or civilian industrial parks), or more likely, in hardened, deeply buried facilities which it believes are beyond the reach of Israel or the United States."
It is not the first time experts warn of Iran's resilience. Last month, Sina Azodi, an expert on US-Iran relations, told the Eye for Iran podcast that Iran can easily rebuild nuclear facilities hit by air attacks.
"Once you know how to make a car, it doesn't matter how many times you get into a car accident. You can still rebuild it," he said.
The potential for clandestine rebuilding necessitates "follow-on covert action and military strikes to disrupt and delay efforts to rebuild" in the years following an initial attack, according to the Washington Institute report.
The analysis concluded that if diplomacy fails to dismantle Iran's nuclear program, policymakers must weigh the risks of a nuclear-threshold Iran against military intervention. While a strike risks triggering nuclear proliferation, it may also enable the long-term containment of a weakened Iran, Eisenstadt argued.
He said that fearing a change in its leadership, which US assurances may not alleviate, Iran might retaliate more aggressively and accelerate its nuclear program after a preventive strike.
"In the current situation, we believe that all parties should maintain calm and restraint to avoid escalating the Iran nuclear situation, or even walking towards confrontation and conflict," said Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning during a press briefing on Thursday.
The upcoming meeting will be chaired by Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu and attended by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi.
While the agenda has not been disclosed, the talks are expected to focus on reviving diplomatic efforts concerning Tehran’s nuclear program, which has faced increased scrutiny following the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 during President Donald Trump's first term.
Now in his second term, Trump has intensified his stance by reintroducing the "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear activities and regional influence through renewed sanctions and diplomatic isolation.
Russia, a key diplomatic actor and original signatory of the JCPOA, has expressed support for restoring the agreement. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently emphasized Moscow’s position. "We are in favor of restoring the original program from which the Americans dropped during the first Trump government," Lavrov said.
However, he also expressed concern over Washington's insistence on adding political conditions to any future deal, including restrictions on Iran's support for regional groups, which he warned "is not going to fly."
Beijing echoed similar sentiments. "China sincerely hopes that all parties can work together, continuously increase mutual trust and dispel misgivings, and turn the momentum of restarting dialogue and negotiation into reality at an early date," Mao said.
The Beijing talks follow a closed-door United Nations Security Council meeting in New York on Wednesday, where concerns were raised over Iran's expanding stockpile of uranium close to weapons-grade.
Beijing, a permanent member of the Security Council, cautioned against applying further pressure on Iran. "Applying maximum pressure on a particular country will not yield the desired outcome," China's UN envoy, Fu Cong, said.
China was one of the key mediators to help revive diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023. Russia has also offered to mediate between the US and Iran over the nuclear issue.
