Millions of Israelis took to shelters in the early hours of Thursday morning as Yemen’s Houthis stepped up air attacks on Israel while the US continues to hit deep into the Iran-backed militant group's infrastructure.
Israel launched air strikes on the battered coastal enclave on Monday killing over 400 people according to the Hamas-run health ministry, appearing to end a two-month ceasefire brokered by the United States.
The strikes on some 80 targets aimed at Hamas mid-level and senior personnel and were over in about 10 minutes, an Israeli security official said according to an official press release.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hamas of intransigence as talks for it to release 59 hostages seized in the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel - many of them dead - floundered.
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei blamed the United States for the attack, saying it had direct responsibility for "the continuation of genocide in the occupied Palestinian territories".
Hours later, the Israeli military said it intercepted a ballistic missile fired from Yemen, shooting it down beyond Israel's borders.
Meanwhile, the US Central Command announced it had carried out fresh air raids on the armed Houthi movement in Yemen allied to Tehran, publishing videos on X showing fighter jets taking off from an aircraft carrier.
The ceasefire in Gaza had tamped down 15 months of conflict pitting Iran and its proxies against Israel throughout the region which saw Iran's so-called "Axis of Resistance" much degraded, with Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah heavily hit.
Looming behind the uptick of violence, Iran has so far defied a demand by US President Donald Trump to come to a new deal over its disputed nuclear program or face a military intervention.
According to an official White House readout of a phone call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, "the two leaders shared the view that Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel."
"The leaders spoke broadly about the Middle East as a region of potential cooperation to prevent future conflicts," the White House added. "They further discussed the need to stop proliferation of strategic weapons and will engage with others to ensure the broadest possible application."
The remarks suggest a fresh US bid to end the war in Ukraine may see Russia attempt to head off a conflict between its Iranian ally and the United States.
Tehran denies seeking nuclear weapons and top Iranian officials have vowed a devastating response to any attack.
US airstrikes hit dozens of Houthi targets throughout Yemen on Saturday in a bid to halt the Shi'ite armed groups attacks on commercial shipping and its own naval vessels, which have ensnared US sailors in the most intense fighting since World War II.
Yemen's Houthi foreign minister said the group will not halt its Red Sea attacks on shipping in solidarity with the Palestinians, saying Iran did not dictate its actions.
Trump on Monday warned the United States would punish Iran for any further attacks by the Houthis, which would be treated as emanating from the Islamic Republic itself.
Iran's military said its manned fighter aircraft had chased away an armed American attack drone in the skies off the Iranian coast, state media reported on Tuesday. There was no immediate reaction by the US armed forces.
The Pentagon on Monday indicated it did not seek an open-ended campaign in Yemen nor did it seek regime change, in an apparent reference to Iran.
“We will use overwhelming lethal force until we achieve our objective. And this is a very important point, this is not an endless offensive," spokesman Sean Parnell said.
"This is not about regime change in the Middle East, this is about protecting American interests.”
Tensions between Iran and the United States have risen sharply since Donald Trump re-entered the Oval Office on 20 January, presenting multiple risks of escalation.
A key deadline in October 2025 looms over whether European countries will trigger the snapback mechanism to re-impose United Nations sanctions removed as part of the Iran nuclear deal in 2015.
Indications, not least by President Trump himself, that he would like to negotiate a new agreement to address Iran’s rapidly-advancing nuclear program, have been offset by his administration’s restoration of its ‘maximum pressure’ policy on Iran.
Trump’s transactional nature and unconventional style of decision-making means nothing can be ruled out in a high-stakes confrontation without a clearly-defined plan.
Caught in the middle are Iran's Arab neighbours, where large-scale projects aimed at future-proofing economic development and growing non-oil sectors would be jeopardized by any conflict involving Iran.
‘De-risking’ has become a mantra in Arab capitals and particularly in Riyadh as the landmark year of 2030 draws closer and as the ‘giga-projects’ associated with Vision 2030 move into construction and delivery phases.
Qatar this month called for a diplomatic solution to the US-Iran standoff over Tehran's nuclear program and argued against military action.
The desire to reduce exposure to regional volatility has been evident in the process of rapprochement with Iran since 2020, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait restoring full diplomatic ties with Tehran in 2022 and 2023 and maintaining regular dialogue on key issues of interest.
This was evident in regional responses to the war in Gaza after 7 October 2023 as the conflict did not regionalize, in part because there was little appetite in any capital on either side of the Persian Gulf for any escalation.
Excluded once, not twice
Back in 2015, officials in some Arab capitals and also in Israel expressed frustration that they were not included in the negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 that culminated in the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), from which Trump’s first administration withdrew in 2018.
In 2020, Saudi leaders called on the incoming Biden administration to consult with them as it sought to revive the Iran deal and explore an expanded ‘follow-on’ agreement, which ultimately did not happen.
As the indirect talks between US and Iranian officials broke down in 2022, the role of Iran's neighbouring Arab countries became more central to keeping open channels of communication between the parties.
Oman and Qatar, along with Kuwait, have long played roles in diplomacy and mediation in regional affairs, as they generally maintained pragmatic working relationships with Iran which, in the Qatari case, included one of the world’s largest reservoirs of natural gas which straddled their maritime boundary.
Officials in Oman placed a premium on balancing relationships with regional partners and being able to utilize their ability to engage with adversaries to address flashpoints and minimize their threat to regional security.
Prior to their passing in 2020, both Sultan Qaboos of Oman and Emir Sabah of Kuwait had well-earned reputations as diplomatists par excellence borne out of decades of involvement in regional affairs.
An example of their efforts to reduce tensions was seen in early 2017 when Emir Sabah sent a letter to Iran’s then-president, Hasan Rouhani, to establish a basis for dialogue after tensions had soared in 2016. Rouhani responded by visiting Kuwait and Oman and Emir Sabah then traveled to Muscat to meet with Sultan Qaboos to follow up, but the subsequent rift over Qatar put paid to those efforts.
In 2025, Kuwait is focused on domestic issues and relatively absent from the regional scene, but there is space for Saudi Arabia to play more of an active role than it has in the past and to build upon the progress in the Kingdom’s relations with Iran since ties were re-established two years ago.
Since 2023, the Saudi leadership has been active in regional diplomatic initiatives concerning Syria, Gaza, and Sudan, and has burnished its credentials as an intermediary with convening power across the Arab and Islamic worlds.
In its ongoing facilitation of meetings of Ukrainian, Russian, and U.S. officials, the Kingdom has shown that it has the ability to navigate between adversaries and leverage its growing non-alignment in world affairs.
Securing a seat at the table in the Russia-U.S. talks may be a prelude to inserting Saudi Arabia into the middle of any negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, thereby minimizing the risks of exclusion from the talks, as in 2015, but Iranian officials may still view the Saudis as too close to the U.S. and not impartial.
The regional mediators of longer standing, Qatar and Oman, are likely to continue to offer their services in relaying messages between the Unites States and Iran and ensuring that opportunities for dialogue remain open, joined by the United Arab Emirates which delivered a letter from Trump to Iranian leaders on 12 March.
Trump redux
Trump’s mercurial approach to policy appears even more unpredictable second time around and has led to whipsaw decisions on tariffs that have added to market uncertainty and left analysts scrambling.
A similar pattern may well overshadow the next phase of the delicate dance between the U.S. and Iran, especially if Trump and Iranian leaders engage in verbal sparring matches of ever-increasing volume.
If this happens, officials in the Gulf States may focus on practical measures to limit the possibility of escalation, whether by accident or design, and identify the parameters of realistic dialogue going forward.
Taken together, their efforts are illustrative of the prevailing opinion in the region in favor of resolving the standoff between Tehran and Washington, and the depth of Emirati (and Saudi) political and economic relationships in DC may resonate with the Trump White House and its Congressional allies.
While tensions in other parts of the Middle East have soared in the wake of the Gaza war and the degradation of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance,’ the rulers in Riyadh, Muscat or Abu Dhabi are more closely aligned than they were in Trump’s first term, and may thus be better placed to play a proactive and productive role in de-escalatory regional dynamics.
"A missile launched from Yemen was intercepted by the IAF [Israeli Air Force] prior to crossing into Israeli territory. Sirens were sounded in accordance with protocol," a statement from the Israeli military said referring to the incident shortly before 4am Thursday.
The Houthis said the missile was a Palestine 2 hypersonic ballistic missile in a statement on their Telegram channel after having been banned from X in the wake of the US returning the group to the list of foreign terrorist organizations in January.
The Houthis said Thursday morning’s missile was aiming at Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv, forcing flights including those from London and Abu Dhabi to re-route and raising questions about the recent return of commercial flights to the Jewish state.
The latest missile attack on Israel comes amid US strikes on Houthi infrastructure including in the capital they control, Sanaa, as President Donald Trump vowed to crack down on the Iran-backed militants currently targeting US assets in the Red Sea, in addition to its ongoing blockade of commercial shipping.
On Monday, Trump threatened to hold Iran accountable for any future Houthi attacks, warning of “dire” consequences in spite of military and political figures in Tehran maintaining that the group operates independently.
On Wednesday, he said it is not enough for Iran to reduce its support of Houthis and all arms provisions must end, citing reports that Tehran has rolled back its supplies to the Yemen group.
The Houthis' military actions were triggered by the resumption of fighting in Gaza this week as Israel vows to use military force to bring back the nearly 60 Israeli hostages, many of whom have been killed in captivity since being held by Iran-backed Hamas since October 7 2023, after a US-brokered ceasefire collapsed.
In allegiance with Hamas, the Houthis have carried out over 100 attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea region since November 2023 along with dozens of missile and drone attacks directly targeting Israel. After a near two-month lull, they have resumed attacks, notably targeting Iran's regional adversary.
On Tuesday, the Israeli military confirmed Houthis claims that they had fired a ballistic missile towards Israel, warning they would expand their range of targets in the coming days.
In the largest military operation since Trump's return to office, the Pentagon reported striking 30 targets in Yemen since Saturday. Subsequently, the Houthis claimed multiple direct attacks on the USS Harry S. Truman in the Red Sea, beginning Sunday.
In a Foreign Policy article, Royal United Services Institute fellows Burcu Ozcelik and Baraa Shiban argued that while Iran’s largest ally Hezbollah has been weakened, the Houthis have stepped into the breach.
“While Hezbollah has retreated to rebuild its military capabilities, the Houthis have shown resolve to step up, issuing ultimatums to Israel and acting brazenly to consolidate their domestic grip on power,” they said.
“The Houthis see themselves as playing the role that Hezbollah once played.”
The Yemen experts say that additionally, the Houthis have increased their footprint in Iraq, with their members being embedded with Shiite Iraqi militias, which has also helped them created new and plug into existing shell companies to benefit from the Iraqi financial system that operates “at the behest of Iranian interests”.
“Iran has helped the Houthis in proliferating drones and ballistic missiles. Tehran views the group as a valuable ally and will not shy from directing the IRGC’s efforts to bolster the Houthis’ capabilities even as Iran is under pressure domestically after expenditures in the billions of dollars to prop up Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Assad regime,” they added.
However, with Trump’s determination to punish Iran for the Houthis’ actions, the situation could become more complex.
“In the short term, the Houthis are gaining some recognition and can sustain if they are not facing strong military pressure—something that can change under the Trump administration,” they said.
