Expert level talks signal progress but no imminent deal – AP opinion

The United States has positioned two aircraft carriers and a fleet of B-2 stealth bombers in the region near Iran, indicating potential military readiness amid ongoing nuclear negotiations, according to a Fox News opinion piece by Dr. Rebecca Grant, vice president of the Lexington Institute, a US-based think tank focused on defense and logistics.

“Two aircraft carriers and a fleet of B-2 stealth bombers are pointed straight at Iran,” Grant wrote. “Never before have we seen such a big forward deployment of B-2 bombers.”

She argued that a campaign to target Iran’s nuclear weapons program is “no longer far-fetched,” citing Israeli airstrikes in 2024 as having lowered the political and military risks of such an operation. “Frankly, the attacks on Iran’s air defenses carried out by Israeli F-35s and other planes last year have lowered the risk calculus,” she said.

Grant linked the deployment to President Donald Trump’s broader diplomatic strategy ahead of talks with Iran. “To keep the talks going, a big part of Trump’s strategy is to deploy to US Central Command the forces required to smash Iran’s nuclear weapons manufacturing capability,” she wrote.

The op-ed said that the United States can act unilaterally if needed. “The military calls this ‘sovereign options,’ because Trump needs no other country’s permission to launch strikes from aircraft carriers and bombers,” she said.

According to Grant, the deployment of six B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia—capable of delivering 30,000-lb. bunker-busting bombs—suggests planning for sustained precision strikes on Iran’s underground facilities.

The Islamic Republic is compelled to yield to demands made by the United States in ongoing negotiations primarily because the US retains the option of military action, according to Jalil Roshandel, a professor of international relations.

Roshandel told Iran International that the goals in the talks see Tehran seeking relief from sanctions and financial difficulties, while Washington aims to strip Iran of any military capability.

Roshandel said that “the potential for a US military strike always exists over the Islamic Republic's head," serving as an enforcement mechanism for US demands."It is for this reason that the Islamic Republic is forced to submit to America's demands.”

But the fundamental question remains: who is the real seditionist? Is it the Iranian people protesting the country’s dire conditions—or is it Khamenei himself, who has held power for over three decades? Who is responsible for the current state of affairs that has him so worried? Who has ruled the country and made all major decisions over the past 36 years—ordinary citizens or Khamenei himself?

Khamenei labeling public protests as "sedition" and dismissing demonstrators as seditious is nothing new. This has always been his approach. He has never been willing to acknowledge that Iranian citizens are reacting to the country's deteriorating conditions, which are a direct result of his policies as supreme leader. He has consistently refused to recognize these protests as legitimate, branding them as riots in order to justify their suppression.

He views the citizens who took to the streets in dozens of cities during the 2017, 2019, and 2022 uprisings as being influenced by foreign enemies. But is this really plausible? Khamenei refuses to accept that these protests are domestic and popular in nature. He uses the label of unrest to delegitimize them.

If Khamenei is worried about new protests, he should understand that this fear stems from his own actions. The country’s current state—one that the majority of people reject—is the product of 36 years under his rule, and a decade before that under Khomeini.

For 46 years, no one else has governed Iran. Even the monarchy, which the Islamic Republic continues to criticize and compare itself to, fares better in many metrics. In contrast, the Islamic Republic has dragged the country backward.

After 46 years in power, it is no longer acceptable for the Islamic Republic to measure itself against a government from half a century ago. And even when this comparison is made, in the minds of many Iranians, the Pahlavi era wins, while the Islamic Republic is clearly the loser.

While other nations have advanced in less time, Iran under the Islamic Republic has stagnated or regressed. Dubai and Qatar have achieved modern prosperity in under 46 years. China, now an economic superpower, began its development path after the Islamic Republic came to power—but unlike Iran, it made real progress. The Islamic Republic squandered these decades, pushed the country into ruin, and sacrificed three generations in the process—yet refuses to step aside. Meanwhile, those who object to these conditions are called seditious.

When Khamenei assumed power in 1989, the exchange rate was 1,200 rials to the US dollar. After 36 years of his leadership, it has surpassed one million—a depreciation of 87,000 percent. This isn't mere exaggeration; it’s verifiable with a basic calculation. And still, he labels public protests as sedition and threatens suppression—though such threats have long lost their force.

In just the past four years, the dollar has surged from around 200,000 rials to 1,040,000—more than a fivefold increase. So why wouldn’t people expect the currency to plunge further, possibly hitting one billion rials, if the current trajectory and war-driven policies continue?

Given this economic collapse—and the fact that widespread poverty and dissatisfaction are direct consequences of Khamenei’s rule—how can he possibly justify calling protesters seditious?

Even some of Khamenei’s own allies, like former deputy parliament speaker Mohammadreza Bahonar, have admitted that inflation has hovered at 40 percent for the past seven years. Inflation, in essence, is a legalized form of theft by the state—citizens go to sleep at night and wake up to find their savings eroded.

Even former president Hassan Rouhani, a figure deeply entrenched in Iran’s security apparatus, has openly stated that the people are unhappy.

When individuals who played key roles in cracking down on the 2017 and 2019 protests now speak of widespread dissatisfaction, how can Khamenei still claim these movements are foreign-led?

Many Islamic Republic officials have warned that the public will once again take to the streets—an outcome of the government’s own policies. If anything needs to change, it is the behavior of those in power, not the people.

Numerous insiders have acknowledged the failures of the Islamic Republic’s domestic and foreign policies, especially regarding the US and Israel. Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard’s staunch anti-American and anti-Israeli stance has not only devastated the economy but also edged the country closer to a potentially catastrophic war.

Sanctions, largely driven by Tehran’s belligerent foreign policy, have primarily harmed ordinary Iranians—while enriching commanders of the Revolutionary Guard.

Mohammad Hossein Adeli, a former Central Bank governor, revealed that in just one year, efforts to circumvent sanctions—managed by the Revolutionary Guard—cost the country $50 billion.

Where did that money go? Beyond international middlemen, much of it ended up in the hands of IRGC commanders and oil smuggling networks. They call it “bypassing sanctions,” but in practice, it’s looting the nation while claiming sacrifice and heroism.

Naturally, the Guard will seek to protect this $50 billion racket—so it continues echoing anti-American policies. After all, it’s the people who pay the price, not the IRGC.

The reality is that through flawed domestic and foreign policies, the Islamic Republic has pushed Iran into a full-blown crisis. Public frustration and anger towards the ruling system is undeniable. The responsibility for this crisis rests squarely on Ali Khamenei and the government he leads.

Ultimately, public protests driven by economic collapse, corruption, and authoritarianism cannot be ignored—and they will inevitably erupt again. But the core question remains: in a country where even officials acknowledge the people's dissatisfaction, who is the real source of sedition—the people, or Ali Khamenei?

The rally that was supposed to be a celebration of women, became the start of a six-day battle against the newly imposed Islamic dress code on them. It was perhaps the earliest sign that the revolution they had fought for had been hijacked.

Only weeks before, many of these same women—students, doctors, lawyers, nurses, teachers, activists—had marched against the dictatorial rule of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, fighting for freedom, democracy, and equality, unaware that they would become the first victims of Iran’s Islamization led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

On March 7, 1979, Khomeini decreed that all women working in government offices must heed Islamic diktats and cover their hair. The following day, women arriving at work unveiled were turned away.

Many felt this was not about clothes, but control. They saw it as an attempt to erase women from public life. And they fought back.

“We did not rise to go back,” thousands chanted marching from the University of Tehran toward the Prime Minister’s office. “In the dawn of freedom, women’s rights are missing.”

The peaceful demonstration was met with brute force. Islamist revolutionaries and pro-Khomeini mobs stormed the march with sticks and knives. Dissenting women were beaten and stabbed. They were called enemies of Islam and agents of the West.

But they did not back down.

For six days, they marched through the streets of Tehran, defying the cold, the growing danger, and the bitter sneering of those who dismissed their struggle as secondary to the revolutionary cause.

The dismissive view was by no means limited to Iranian masses. It was shared by many Western intellectuals who, bewitched by the revolution in Iran, ignored or actively justified the repression of the new regime.

Thinkers afar: enablers and allies

While feminists like French philosopher Simone de Beauvoir and American writer Kate Millett stood in solidarity with women in Iran, others like de Beauvoir’s compatriot Michel Foucault helped legitimize the Islamic Republic.

De Beauvoir recognized the Iranian women’s fight as part of the global struggle for gender equality, helping establish the International Committee for Women’s Rights (CIDF) to amplify their voices. Millett traveled to Iran to document their struggle and was arrested and expelled for her efforts.

Foucault also visited Iran but had a wholly different view of the events. He romanticized the revolution, reducing it to a rejection of Western imperialism and ignoring its catastrophic consequences for women and dissidents. He brushed aside human rights concerns as Western biases, a framing that persists in various forms to this date.

Another lasting influence in Western intellectual circles is Palestinian-American philosopher and literary critic Edward Said.

Said’s most influential work, Orientalism, was published a year before the revolution in Iran. He focused on Western narratives about the East. While many of his arguments against colonialism were valid, they were weaponized by Islamists to deflect criticism.

Said, unlike Foucault, never glorified Iran’s transformation. Others used his emphasis on culture, however, to depict forced veiling and gender segregation as cultural differences rather than human rights violations, failing to—or choosing not to— challenge the repression in a meaningful way.

A Legacy of Resistance

Back in Iran, the forced veiling of women was completed and codified in 1983. Those daring to flout the law would be punished by official enforcers or emboldened thugs. The Six-Day Protest of 1979 was defeated.

But it heralded a long fight for equality that’s continued to this date.

In 2022, the world watched as Iranians across Iran took to the streets after a 22-year-old Kurdish woman named Mahsa Amini died in custody, having been detained for not covering her hair fully.

Amini’s tragic death—a state murder by all accounts—ignited the largest uprising against the Islamic Republic. Young men tore down posters of supreme leader Ali Khamenei as young women set their scarves on fire.

Their slogan? “Woman, Life, Freedom.”

The struggle against hijab and gender apartheid is not just an Iranian issue—it is a global human rights fight. Iranian and Afghan women continue to resist, even as the Islamic Republic and the Taliban impose laws aimed at erasing them from public life.

What happened on March 8, 1979, is not just history, it is a warning. Revisiting that eventful day and what has happened in Iran since, may help Western intellectuals and politicians see mandatory hijab for what it is: systemic, religious oppression, not a symbol of cultural relativism.

When enforced by law, hijab is not a cultural practice. It is a means of control. Iranian and Afghan women are calling for solidarity, demanding that the world listen to them rather than the Foucaults of the world.

International Women’s Day is a day to honor those who fought and are fighting for equality. It also has to be a day to reject the view that dismisses their struggle, and enables their oppressors.

Opinion expressed by the author are not necessarily the views of Iran International.

The most recent example is the cancelled event at the Berlin-based German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA), scheduled to feature Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, but much better known as the former head of the National Iranian American Council (NIAC).

Parsi, a longtime supporter of normalizing the US-Iran relations, was set to speak at GIGA earlier this month, but mounting pressure from activists, journalists, and the Iranian diaspora forced the institute to withdraw its platform.

Our position was clear: a figure with a clear history of advocacy for Tehran has to be presented as such, not as an impartial expert; he has to be contested, not granted the whole floor. 

Such events as GIGA’s, we argued, undermine serious discussion about Iran and its future. It also raises concerns about why institutions like GIGA and the Körber Foundation continue to give credibility to individuals with well-documented ties to the Islamic Republic.

Parsi took Iranian journalist Hassan Daei to court over such allegations about a decade ago. Consequent US court rulings in 2013 and 2015 dismissed NIAC’s defamation lawsuit, revealing internal emails suggesting the body’s lobbying efforts against sanctions. 

A troubling narrative

What we, Iranian dissidents and human rights activists, sought was never silencing someone we disagree with, but to hold accountable institutions that misrepresent as Iran expert figures promoting narratives aligned with Tehran’s interests.

GIGA did eventually cancel the event, citing security concerns. This is deeply problematic as it frames Iranian dissidents—many of whom have suffered the brutality of the Islamic Republic—as aggressors.

No one active in the campaign was a security threat.

The organizers could have opted for a balanced discussion, a forum with different perspectives on Iran. Instead, they planned a one-sided event with a speaker known for advancing Tehran’s talking points, and, when challenged, chose cancellation over honest engagement.

Think Tanks’ role

European think tanks, including GIGA and the Körber Foundation, have repeatedly platformed figures with ties to Tehran, such as Hossein Mousavian, a former Iranian diplomat linked to human rights abuses.

Revelations from Iran International and Semafor last year detailed Tehran’s efforts to embed sympathetic voices in Western institutions to soften its image, oppose sanctions, and push engagement without accountability.

The influence operation, named Iran Expert Initiative (IEI) by those who designed it in Tehran, was reported to have had European support.

A core member of IEI based in Sweden, Roozbeh Parsi—Trita’s brother—said earlier this month that his Iran-related activities were backed by the UK government. This was quickly denied by officials in London.

"We have no record of funding for the IEI or any departmental work with them," the UK Foreign Office said in response to an Iran International inquiry.

So the question raised with the first IEI exposé last year remains: which European government—or governments—funded IEI?

The official inquiry launched by Sweden in response to allegations against Roozbeh Parsi and his employer, Swedish Institute of International Affairs (SIIA), may or may not answer that question. But it’s bound to bring to light more evidence about Tehran’s influence operations.

Would GIGA, SIIA and other such institutions in Europe continue to dismiss these findings or show more openness to criticisms that are ultimately aimed at more informative discussions about Iran?

Road ahead

Those of us involved in the campaign against Trita Parsi’s uncontested platform at GIGA consider its cancellation a positive step—not the balanced debate we sought but better than a free ride for voices that echo Tehran’s and help manipulate narratives in the West.

Institutions like GIGA must recognize that such events come at the cost of those fighting for Iran’s freedom and distort Western policy.

Stricter vetting of speakers is essential. Reputable centers should not leave unchallenged those pushing the agendas of authoritarian regimes. It is quite telling that such figures usually prefer to cancel rather than take part in a multi-voiced forum.

It is also essential that scrutiny is extended beyond individuals to institutions. Other western governments should follow the Swedish lead and investigate whether their public funds have fueled Tehran’s influence operations.

As Washington is set to intensify efforts to confront Iran’s rulers, officials in Europe’s capitals should join rather than undermine that campaign.