Khamenei vows US talks won’t derail China ties in message to Xi, source says
Iran's Supreme Leader has sent a direct message to his Chinese counterpart vowing a steady commitment to their strategic partnership no matter the outcome of ongoing nuclear talks with the US, a source familiar with the matter told Iran International.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is traveling to Beijing on Tuesday with Ali Khamenei’s letter to Xi Jinping, a diplomatic source familiar with the message told Iran International.
“In his message to Xi, the Supreme Leader said Iran’s ‘Look to the East’ policy is a foundational pillar of its foreign relations and will not be altered by any rapprochement with Washington.”
According to the diplomatic source, Khamenei’s message also referenced Iran’s cautious opening up to diplomacy and economic cooperation with the West following a 2015 nuclear agreement, telling Xi that such a change in orientation would not be repeated.
Iran's Supreme Leader has sent a direct message to his Chinese counterpart vowing a steady commitment to their strategic partnership no matter the outcome of ongoing nuclear talks with the US, a source familiar with the matter told Iran International.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is traveling to Beijing on Tuesday with Ali Khamenei’s letter to Xi Jinping, a diplomatic source familiar with the message told Iran International.
The move comes days before Araghchi is expected to hold a third round of talks with US envoy Steve Witkoff.
“In his message to Xi, the Supreme Leader emphasized that the Islamic Republic remains fully committed to the 25-year cooperation agreement with China,” the source added.
“He added that Iran’s ‘Look to the East’ policy is a foundational pillar of its foreign relations and will not be altered by any rapprochement with Washington.”
Despite close political ties and a comprehensive strategic agreement signed, Chinese investments in Iran have lagged far behind expectations. Only two major deals were struck between 2013 and 2023, with one later annulled following the US exit from a 2015 nuclear deal.
Iran and the United States this month engaged in two rounds of nuclear negotiations, first in Muscat and then in Rome, mediated by Oman. The initial talks in Muscat were described as "positive and constructive," with both sides agreeing to continue discussions the following week.
A third round of talks is slated for Saturday, as the two sides approach a 60-day deadline set by the US president for achieving a deal on Tehran's disputed nuclear program.
In late March, Trump threatened to bomb Iran and impose secondary sanctions if no nuclear deal is reached with Tehran.
Post-2015 opening to West 'won't be repeated’
According to the same diplomatic source, Khamenei’s message also referenced Iran’s cautious opening up to diplomacy and economic cooperation with the West following a 2015 nuclear agreement, telling Xi that such a change in orientation would not be repeated.
“The message was meant to reassure China that any agreement with the US is solely intended to reduce tensions,” the source said.
In his weekly press briefing on Monday, Iran's Foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Tehran continues to coordinate with allies, adding, “It is natural that we will brief China on the latest in the Iran-US talks.”
Iran's former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi bump elbows during the signing ceremony of a 25-year cooperation agreement, in Tehran, Iran March 27, 2021.
Araghchi’s trip to Beijing mirrors a recent effort in which Iran’s foreign minister delivered a similar message from Khamenei to Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of earlier talks in Italy.
Though China remains Iran’s top trading partner, Chinese firms have signed far more lucrative contracts with Saudi Arabia and the UAE in recent years.
Since taking office, the Trump administration has escalated pressure on Iran by targeting Chinese teapot refineries—independent processors of Iranian crude that have served as a vital economic conduit for Tehran under sanctions.
Iran proposed a three-stage plan to the US delegation during talks in Oman on Saturday envisioning a cap on their uranium enrichment in exchange for the lifting of US sanctions, three diplomatic sources in Tehran told Iran International.
The plan was presented by Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in writing to US President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff during the three-hour talks.
Tehran proposed that in the first stage, it would temporarily reduce its uranium enrichment level to 3.67% in exchange for access to financial assets frozen by the United States and permission to export its oil, the diplomatic sources told Iran International.
In the second phase, the sources added, Iran would permanently end high-level enrichment and restore the United Nations nuclear watchdog's inspections if the United States lifts further sanctions on Iran and persuades Britain, Germany and France to refrain from triggering the so-called snapback of UN sanctions on Tehran.
In this phase, Iran would also commit to implementing the Additional Protocol, a supplementary agreement that allows the UN nuclear watchdog to carry out surprise inspections at sites not declared to the agency.
The third and final stage calls for the US congress to approve the nuclear agreement and for Washington to lift both primary and secondary sanctions, while Iran would transfer its highly enriched uranium stockpiles to a third country.
US envoy Witkoff welcomed the proposals presented by the Iranian side, the sources told Iran International, surprising the Iranian delegation in Muscat.
Iran proposed a three-stage plan to the US delegation during talks in Oman on Saturday envisioning a cap on their uranium enrichment in exchange for the lifting of US sanctions, three diplomatic sources in Tehran told Iran International.
The plan was presented by Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in writing to US President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff during the three-hour talks.
Tehran proposed that in the first stage, it would temporarily reduce its uranium enrichment level to 3.67% in exchange for access to financial assets frozen by the United States and permission to export its oil, the diplomatic sources told Iran International.
In the second phase, the sources added, Iran would permanently end high-level enrichment and restore the United Nations nuclear watchdog's inspections if the United States lifts further sanctions on Iran and persuades Britain, Germany and France to refrain from triggering the so-called snapback of UN sanctions on Tehran.
In this phase, Iran would also commit to implementing the Additional Protocol, a supplementary agreement that allows the UN nuclear watchdog to carry out surprise inspections at sites not declared to the agency.
Tehran ended that compliance in February 2021 after Trump in his first term withdrew from a previous international deal over Iran's nuclear program in 2018.
The third and final stage calls for the US congress to approve the nuclear agreement and for Washington to lift both primary and secondary sanctions, while Iran would transfer its highly enriched uranium stockpiles to a third country.
Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon and the US intelligence assesses that Tehran has not yet resolved to build one, but the Trump administration has warned Iran it must come to a nuclear deal or face attack.
A second round due to be held in Rome on Saturday could prove more rocky than the amicable first round in which Iran submitted its plan for a deal.
Washington toughened its public stance on Tuesday, with both the White House and Witkoff saying that the US goal in negotiations would be the wholesale end of Iran's nuclear program, a notion Iran has repeatedly called a non-starter.
Iran's proposal welcomed by Witkoff
US envoy Witkoff welcomed the proposals presented by the Iranian side, the sources told Iran International, surprising the Iranian delegation in Muscat.
Iranian officialdom appeared cheered by the first round of talks, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remarking in a meeting with senior military commanders on Tuesday that "the initial steps have been implemented well".
A diplomatic source outside Tehran expressed skepticism to Iran International of the Islamic Republic's intentions in the talks and said it seeks to delay a foreign attack by staggering an agreement over several complex phases.
“One of the reasons Iran’s Supreme Leader agreed to allow the resumption of negotiations is the need to buy more time, because he knows Iran currently lacks the ability to defend itself against another airstrike," the source said.
“Iran is mainly stalling to buy time to rebuild its air defense capabilities, which were all destroyed by Israel in late October, and to restore its capacity to produce surface-to-surface missiles which were damaged in that same Israeli attack,” the source added.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on Thursday that his actions had previously thwarted Iran's ability to build a bomb, appearing to respond to a New York Times report that President Trump had halted Israeli plans to attack Iran.
"Netanyahu has led countless secret and open actions in the campaign against Iran's nuclear program that only thanks to them Iran does not have a nuclear arsenal today," the statement said.
Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said on Wednesday Iran was "not far" from possessing an atomic bomb.
"It's like a puzzle: they have the pieces and maybe one day they could put them back together. There's still a long way to go before we get there. But they're not far away, we have to admit that," he said in an interview with Le Monde.
"It's not enough to tell the international community 'we don't have nuclear weapons' for them to believe it. We have to be able to verify it," Grossi said.
In its latest report in March, the IAEA warned that over the past three months, Iran had significantly expanded its reserves of highly enriched uranium, and if this trend continues, its stockpile could theoretically be enough to produce six nuclear bombs.
The United States faces a formidable adversary in talks with Islamic Republic, a former top US intelligence official told Iran International, and Tehran's aim could be to buy time for its nuclear program.
Norman Roule, a veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency for over 30 years who once oversaw its Iran desk, said Tehran's veteran negotiators could drag out the talks to their advantage while enriching uranium toward levels needed to build a bomb.
“Every day talks drag on, Iran moves closer to the threshold,” he said. “And if it calculates that it gains more from staying on the edge of weaponization than actually building a bomb, it will continue to play this game.”
Tehran has proven adept, Roule said, at “negotiating the negotiation”, or what he described as using drawn-out diplomacy to defuse military threats and reduce sanctions while continuing nuclear development.
As the United States prepares to resume nuclear talks with Iran this weekend, Iran’s leadership would appear to be on the backfoot amid uncertainty over its political succession, economic malaise, regional setbacks and rising international suspicion of its nuclear ambitions.
Iran has historically used negotiations as a pressure valve, Roule said, entering talks only when the threat of military confrontation peaks, with previous talks in 2003, 2012, and 2015 coinciding with an escalated US military presence or regional turmoil.
But this time is different, he argued.
Norman Roule pictured during an interview with Marzia Hussaini at Iran International's office in Washington DC
“This regime is weaker, more isolated, and increasingly unpopular. If Iran keeps using its nuclear program as a shield to avoid pressure on its oppression, terrorism, and hostage-taking, the international community must call its bluff.”
According to Roule, the Trump administration is entering the talks with a clear objective: a permanent end to Iran’s capacity to build a nuclear weapon, without repeating the perceived flaws of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
“The 2015 agreement placed temporary and reversible limits on Iran’s nuclear program but gave Tehran permanent sanctions relief,” Roule said. “The result was that Iran used that economic relief to finance terrorism and militias across the region.”
Now, Washington may seek to allow Iran a more limited civilian nuclear capability while barring any path to weaponization and denying access to funds that could revitalize Iran’s destabilizing regional network.
Historic Strain
The talks with Trump are proceeding as Tehran is at is weakest strategic moment since emerging from the punishing Iran-Iraq War in 1988, Roule argued.
Politically, the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a 2024 helicopter crash removed the only viable successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei who shared the veteran leader's ideological alignment and political credentials.
Presidential elections last year saw historically low turnout, signaling popular resignation, and the recent ouster of the Vice President and the Finance Minister pointed to factional infighting.
On the economic front, inflation and the proportion of Iranians living below the poverty line both stand at around 30% while blackouts routinely plunge residents and businesses into the dark.
“This is an economic catastrophe,” he said. “Iran's people are paying the price for decades of mismanagement and isolation.”
Militarily, an Oct. 26 Israeli attack likely knocked out much of Iran's air defenses, capping months of harsh Israeli blows on Tehran's allies Hamas and Hezbollah.
“The ring of fire Iran built around Israel is now broken,” Roule said. “The Quds Force remains, but it is bruised and scattered,” he added, referring to the elite paramilitary force that oversees Tehran's foreign operations.
Moment of reckoning
While Roule emphasized his support for a diplomatic solution, he acknowledged that Israel in particular is closely studying plans for a potential attack
“If Israel delivers a significant strike, it won’t eliminate Iran’s nuclear capability permanently,” he said, “but it could raise the costs so high that Tehran would hesitate to rebuild.”
Still, there was some possibility that Tehran could choose a fundamentally different posture toward the United States.
“This could be the moment the Supreme Leader chooses normalization over confrontation,” Roule said. “The Iranian people — brilliant, resilient — deserve a future that isn’t shaped by threats, militias and sanctions.”
Under Trump’s leadership, White House special envoy Steve Witkoff “is working to resolve our differences with Iran through dialogue and diplomacy, if that is possible,” a State Department spokesperson told Iran International.
"This diplomacy is being led by Ambassador Witkoff, who is coordinating with Secretary Rubio," the spokesperson said.
"Secretary Rubio has repeatedly echoed what President Trump has said: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon," the spokesperson added.
