Regime change in Iran cannot be imposed from the outside, but the recent Israeli air strikes laid the groundwork for Iranian people to take the lead in ousting the Islamic Republic, Israel's ambassador to the United States told Iran International on Tuesday.
Considered fearsome by Israel and their Lebanese countrymen, Hezbollah once held a de facto veto over politics in Lebanon by virtue of the arms and sought to scotch domestic discussion on turning in its arsenal.
Hezbollah members were accused of assassinating a former prime minister
A punishing war with Israel which crescendoed with attacks on Hezbollah leaders' communication devices sapped the group and much of its sway at home and abroad.
A chastened Hezbollah, once seen as a key deterrent for its Iranian patrons against Israeli attack, totally sat out the 12-day Iran-Israel war in which Tehran was bruised.
A political analyst in Beirut, who asked to remain anonymous for safety reasons, told Iran International: “It is very clear Hezbollah is not getting involved in the Iran-Israel war. They realized the cost is very high and they can’t afford to. Many of us here are simply watching and hoping that after this war on Iran, the whole region will be better.”
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem’s recent statement rallied to Iran's side but stopped well short of pledging action.
“We in Hezbollah are not neutral between Iran’s legitimate rights and independence and America’s falsehood and aggression, and we act as we see fit in the face of the Israeli-American aggression against Iran.”
But after decades of wars in Lebanon, its people are tired, the analyst said.
“People here want peace, they want to work, to build the country back up. Iran is sending arms and money to Hezbollah to build Lebanon into a country according to its own vision. This isn’t what we want.”
Hezbollah not over
A Christian citizen, who asked to be called only by his first name George, told Iran International that Hezbollah's presence is Lebanon persisted despite setbacks.
"They are still very capable of creating domestic problems even if less so or a new war with Israel. We are now afraid they could cause another civil war, which would be a disaster for us to go through again,” George said.
Last year, Israel pounded the group and killed the group’s top political and military leadership, including its veteran charismatic leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Huge swathes of the group’s military capabilities have been degraded and infrastructure destroyed.
Israel continues to strike Hezbollah members, missile launchers and weapons caches. despite a US-France-brokered ceasefire.
George hopes the Israeli and US attacks against Iran could weaken the group.
“Iran is the father of Hezbollah, giving them arms, money, so this war will help a lot,” George said, hopeful of a brighter future for his homeland.
On the missile path
Lebanon sat below the pathway of Iranian missiles bound for Israel this month, with video footage showing Beirut's party life barely pausing as they streamed in the sky.
After Lebanon was under fire as Israel and Hezbollah battled it out last year, the peace feels eerily strange to some.
“It’s surreal to see this as we sit in the middle,” said one mother of three in Beirut who asked to be called Fatima.
“We have gone through so much, that of course we still fear Hezbollah can start something again, but it seems for now, they are not getting involved. I think it’s clear they know they are not strong enough after what we went through last year.”
However, there are those who still bear the scars of years of war with Israel. Ahmad, whose family are in Beirut and suffered displacement after the 2019 port explosion, told Iran International: “Personally I’m celebrating.
"I’m happy to see Iran’s rockets going to Israel because finally someone is doing this. No other country bombed back like this before.”
When asked if he thinks Lebanon and the Middle East could be more peaceful without the dominance and political influence of Tehran, he said: “No, I think that getting rid of Israel will bring peace.”
Lebanon is still paying a heavy price for the last round of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, with thousands dead and wounded, and thousands more displaced.
Now, amid the war with Iran, several airlines have cancelled flights to Lebanon and diplomatic missions have evacuated staff despite the peak summer travel season.
The country’s political leadership is calling for calm, urging diplomatic solutions in fear of being dragged into yet another conflict.
President Joseph Aoun said on Sunday: "The recent escalation of Israeli-Iranian confrontations and the rapid developments accompanying them, particularly the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, are likely to raise fears of an expansion of tensions that threatens security and stability in more than one region and country."
"You can't establish democracy top down. It doesn't work," Yechiel Leiter said in a Washington DC town hall hosted by Iran International, when asked if Israel expected a regime change after its recent air strikes on Iran.
"We have created the backdrop. We've created the props on the stage, and hopefully they're enough for there to be capitalized upon and for change to be brought about," the Israeli ambassador told the town hall moderator Fardad Farahzad.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier told Iran International that the Israeli military campaign against Iran was giving its people a chance to topple the Islamic Republic, adding that the ruling system's days were numbered.
"A light has been lit—carry it to freedom,” Netanyahu said on June 16. “This is the time. Your hour of freedom is near—it’s happening now.”
Leiter said on Tuesday that Netanyahu spoke "with a tremendous passion and hope that the world will change and that the Iranian regime will change."
"That's a wish, but that can't be a military goal," he said. "Democracy is, in of itself, an expression of the people's will. So how can you ignore the people's will by forcing it?"
'World must join Israel'
The Israeli ambassador criticized other countries especially the Europeans for leaving the Jewish State alone in countering the Islamic Republic, saying it would be much easier for Iranian people to topple the Islamic Republic should other countries help Israel.
"Why is it that the Chancellor of Germany says 'Israel is doing the dirty work for all of us'? We're a tiny little country. Where's Germany? Where's England? England has a huge stake, huge history in your neck of the woods," Leiter said.
"They can feel an affinity for somebody who threatens an ally, like Israel. And it's not just Israel. Who created the sleeper cells in Europe? Why is there fear now in the United States, of sleeper cells? They have interfered with international waterways, with globalization, with maritime trade," he added.
Iran sent a communiqué to Trump in the days before the US air strikes on its nuclear facilities threatening to activate sleeper-cell terror inside America if it were attacked, NBC News reported on Sunday citing sources.
Eleven Iranian nationals, including a suspected former army sniper and an individual with admitted ties to Hezbollah, were arrested by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) over the weekend in what officials say is a broader crackdown on individuals with ties to Iran and potential national security risks.
The Israeli ambassador addressed the German chancellor and said, "You're absolutely right. We're doing the dirty work for the world, but it's about time that you helped us. And if they did, it would be a lot easier for the people of Iran."
"You have a minority government with its boot on the necks of, of good people, of innocent people, of tens of millions of people."
Surprises every day with Trump in office
The Israeli envoy said he was not surprised by Trump’s ceasefire proposal, as Israel’s military objectives in the war with Iran had been largely achieved by Tuesday morning when the ceasefire took effect.
He said working as a diplomat in Washington DC under President Trump feels like riding a roller coaster—with no idea when the next sharp turn is coming.
"You're on a roller coaster, and the only difference between Washington during the Trump administration and a roller coaster is that with the roller coaster, you know where the twists and turns are coming," he said.
"Here in Washington at the present time, you just don't know when the roller coaster is going to go sideways and you've got to hold on."
Trump on Monday night announced the unexpected ceasefire in the 12-day war between Iran and Israel via a post on his Truth Social platform, further fueling a sense of unpredictability surrounding US policy decisions.
