Israel’s June attack on Iran was years in the making but launched only after three developments aligned: US President Donald Trump’s re-election, the impasse on nuclear talks, and direct Iranian missile strikes on Israel, Euronews reported.
Iran’s newly appointed Supreme National Security Council secretary, Ali Larijani, is undertaking consultations as part of his first foreign trip since taking office.
The talks aim to secure backing from key Shia groups for the PMF law project, which seeks to formalize the status of Iran-backed militias integrated into Iraq’s security apparatus, according to the Baghdad-based source.
The source told Iran International that Larijani will meet with Shiite leaders to stress the “necessity” of passing the legislation.
Larijani arrived in Baghdad on Monday as part of his first regional diplomatic tour as Iran's top security chief that also includes Lebanon. He has indicated plans to sign a bilateral security agreement with Iraq and engage various political currents.
The timing of Larijani’s visit follows recent remarks by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who emphasized that weapons should be controlled by the state and reported efforts to curb Iran-aligned militias’ participation in the June 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran. Iraqi authorities say they have prevented multiple planned attacks by these groups on US military bases.
Since the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, the country’s security landscape has been significantly influenced by various militias, many of which maintain close ties with Iran.Among these, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella organization composed primarily of Shia militias, was initially formed to combat the Islamic State.
Although integrated into Iraq’s formal security forces in 2016 and legally subordinate to the Iraqi prime minister, the PMF continues to operate with a high degree of autonomy, with many of its factions maintaining strong Iranian connections.
The PMF consists of approximately 67 armed groups, nearly all of which are backed by Iran. These militias play a crucial role in Iraq’s security environment but have also been a source of controversy due to their influence and perceived external alignment.
Efforts to reform the PMF aim to reduce this influence by formalizing their integration under Iraqi state control.
In March 2025, the Iraqi parliament introduced draft legislation seeking to reform the PMF by placing it more firmly under the authority of the prime minister as commander-in-chief, explicitly aiming to limit external influence, including from Iran.
The proposed law also includes provisions such as a mandatory retirement age for senior commanders, potentially replacing key figures with longstanding Iranian ties.
“We will in no way accept any border blockade with Armenia,” foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said. “The claim of a 99-year lease to the US has no basis and is fabricated news.”
Armenia’s deputy foreign minister will visit Tehran on Tuesday, while President Masoud Pezeshkian and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan are scheduled to hold a phone call later on Monday, Baghaei added during his weekly briefing.
The announcement follows a US-brokered peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan signed Friday at the White House. The agreement grants Washington rights to develop the route—renamed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity”—linking mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through southern Armenia.
Tehran has repeatedly warned against foreign control over the corridor, which bypasses both Iran and Russia.
IAEA's technical visit to Tehran
A team from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) began talks in Tehran on Monday, including meetings at the foreign ministry, Baghaei confirmed, saying that discussions were “technical and complex” but declined to predict the outcome.
“In the history of the agency’s work, we have never seen a peaceful nuclear facility under 24-hour monitoring attacked, without the IAEA condemning it,” he said, adding that the consultations would focus on future cooperation in light of recent events and parliamentary resolutions.
In late June, Iran’s parliament approved a bill to suspend the country’s cooperation with the IAEA, a day after a ceasefire with Israel following 12 days of deadly war.
Iran maintains its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but the UN’s nuclear watchdog has warned that the levels of uranium enrichment Tehran is pursuing have no civilian justification.
Talks with US and EU
The spokesman denied reports that Norway would host the next round of talks between Iran and the United States.
Iran and the US held five rounds of talks between April and May this year in Muscat, Oman, and Rome, Italy. A sixth round was scheduled to take place in Muscat on June 15, but was indefinitely suspended after Israel launched airstrikes on Iran two days earlier.
The ensuing 12-day conflict in June included US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow, and Israeli strikes that destroyed critical infrastructure, killing several senior military and scientists as well as hundreds of civilians. Iran responded with missile strikes that killed 32 Israelis.
Talks with E3
On negotiations with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, Baghaei said discussions had not stopped.
“At the Istanbul meeting about two weeks ago, both sides agreed to continue talks, but no time or venue has been decided,” he added.
France, Britain, and Germany have said they will activate the United Nations snapback mechanism against Iran by the end of August if no tangible progress is made on a nuclear deal.
The snapback mechanism is part of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. It allows any participant in the nuclear agreement to reimpose sanctions if Iran is deemed non-compliant. If no resolution to maintain sanctions relief is passed within 30 days, all previous UN measures return automatically.
Lebanon and regional diplomacy
On Lebanon, Baghaei said Tehran recognizes the country’s inherent right to defend itself against Israel.
“Exercising this right without weapons is impossible. The decision on this rests with Lebanon,” he said.
Lebanon's cabinet instructed the army last week to develop a plan by the end of the year aimed at creating a state monopoly on weapons—an implicit challenge to Hezbollah, which has resisted disarmament since last year’s conflict with Israel.
Hezbollah decried the move as a "grave sin" and vowed to ignore it.
Baghaei said the newly appointed Supreme National Security Council secretary Ali Larijani’s visits to Iraq and Lebanon were part of Iran’s neighborhood policy, aimed at finalizing security agreements and advancing regional peace.
In Beirut, Larijani is expected to meet senior officials for talks on stability in West Asia, he added.
“Living next to an occupying entity that knows no limits in committing crimes is difficult. Our position in supporting Lebanon’s sovereignty has always been clear,” Baghaei said.
Senior Iranian officials, including Velayati and military commander Iraj Masjedi, have publicly opposed the move, describing it as an American- and Israeli-driven policy that will fail.
The Lebanese foreign ministry in a statement on X condemned the remarks as "a flagrant and unacceptable interference in Lebanon’s internal affairs."
Four current and former Israeli intelligence officials, cited in the report, said the offensive had been a long-term contingency plan, but strategic timing was key.
“Israel has never hidden the fact that it wants to destroy the Iranian nuclear program, and it has never hidden the fact it was also willing to allow it to be resolved diplomatically, as long as the diplomatic solution prevents Iran not only from enriching uranium, but from ever getting the capacity to pose an existential threat to the state of Israel,” one intelligence source told Euronews.
On June 13, Israel launched land and air strikes targeting senior Iranian military leaders, nuclear scientists, and politicians, while damaging or destroying Iranian air defenses and nuclear facilities. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities and military sites. On the ninth day of fighting, the United States bombed three Iranian nuclear sites. Iran then struck a US base in Qatar.
A US-brokered ceasefire was reached on June 24. Both sides claimed victory, with Israel and Washington saying they had significantly degraded Iran’s missile and nuclear programs -- claims Tehran denied. Independent assessments remain limited due to the secrecy surrounding Iran’s nuclear activities.
Trump’s re-election
The intelligence sources told Euronews that Trump’s second election win in 2024 was pivotal to Israel’s decision-making.
“The original plan was to attack in October 2024. That was after the second direct missile attack by Iran on Israel following Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon in September,” the first intelligence source said. However, the strike was postponed until after the US elections.
“I think it was very important for Israel that Trump should win those elections. Once Trump was elected, he put the main emphasis on reaching a hostage deal,” said a second source, referring to the Hamas-Israel conflict.
Once the hostage deal was signed in March 2025, Israel again considered an attack on Iran, but US-Iran negotiations temporarily stalled those plans.
A 60-day ultimatum
Indirect talks between Washington and Tehran began in March 2025 but failed to produce an agreement, despite being described by counterparts as “constructive.”
“Trump gave 60 days to those negotiations. The day after, Israel attacked Iran. I think that obviously was coordinated with the US administration,” all four sources told Euronews.
Although the US has never publicly confirmed coordination, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on June 23 that the operation had been “planned for many years.”
“When we attacked, we were at the end of the 60-day period of negotiations. I think it was very clear to Trump at this stage that the Iranians were not willing to forego enrichment on Iranian soil, even though the negotiations did bring up some interesting solutions to that. For example, some sort of international enrichment agency that would allocate enriched uranium at civilian levels to all countries in the region interested in it,” the first intelligence source said.
“Trump realized Iran was engaging in negotiations merely to buy time, with no real intent to reach a resolution. The talks served as a decoy, giving Iran the impression it wouldn’t be attacked, especially amid widespread press reports that Israel was on the verge of striking,” the source added.
On the first day of conflict, Trump said in a post on Truth Social: “Two months ago I gave Iran a 60-day ultimatum to ‘make a deal.’ They should have done it! Today is day 61. I told them what to do, but they just couldn’t get there. Now they have, perhaps, a second chance!”
Iran’s missile attacks
The proxy conflict between Israel and Iran had been intensifying for years, but the intelligence officials said a turning point came in April 2024 when Iran launched missiles directly from its own territory at Israel.
“I think the pivotal moment was in April 2024, when Iran launched missiles directly from its own territory at Israel. Until then, Iran had primarily relied on proxies to attack Israel, while Israel carried out covert operations inside Iran with plausible deniability, aiming to prevent escalation into full-scale war,” the first source said.
The strike followed an Israeli attack on Iran’s consulate in Syria that killed Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, at the time the highest-ranking Iranian military official killed since the 2020 US assassination of Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani.
“I think Israel had to wait from April 2024. It needed time to gather all the intelligence and planning it needed in order to feel confident that, already in the first two or three days of the war, we would be in a position where we had complete control over the situation, minimal casualties at home, and complete control of Iranian airspace, with the ability to attack whenever and wherever we want to,” the source added.
A second intelligence source told Euronews that Israel intends to “destroy anything that even suggests that the Iranians are preparing to rebuild any of the capabilities that we have destroyed.”
