A survey conducted by a Netherlands-based institute found that the majority of Iranians would vote for either a regime change or a structural transition away from the Islamic Republic, highlighting growing demands for political change across Iran.
The Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran (GAMAAN), which conducted the survey in June 2024, said it polled more than 77,000 respondents inside Iran, weighting the results to represent the literate adult population.
“A majority of the population opposes the Islamic Republic and supports changing or transforming the political system,” the report’s author Ammar Maleki said.
Only around 20 percent of respondents want the Islamic Republic to remain in power, according to the survey.
Support for the principles of the 1979 revolution and the Supreme Leader fell to 11 percent, down from 18 percent in 2022. By contrast, some 40 percent of participants said regime change was a precondition for reform, while another 24 percent favored a structural transition away from the current system.
Opposition is strongest among young, educated, and urban Iranians. More than 74 percent of university graduates rejected the Islamic Republic, compared to 66 percent among those without higher education. In rural areas, however, support for the current system reached 28 percent—nearly double the level found in cities.
When asked about forms of governance, 89 percent of Iranians said they supported democracy. Yet the survey also showed that 43 percent of respondents were open to the idea of rule under a strong leader, a view more common among rural and less-educated citizens.
Religious rule and military government, meanwhile, were decisively rejected, with two-thirds opposing clerical rule and more than 70 percent opposing military control.
Divided over future systems
The survey found no single consensus on what system should replace the current order. A secular republic was backed by 26 percent of respondents, while 21 percent supported a monarchy. Another 22 percent said they lacked enough information to decide, and 11 percent said that the form of an alternative system was not important so long as change occurred.
Support for a federal structure was concentrated in minority regions, with 15 percent nationally endorsing either a federal republic or a federal monarchy. These preferences reflected regional demands for decentralization, particularly in Kordestan, West Azarbaijan, and Sistan and Baluchestan.
Asked about political parties, 37 percent of Iranians preferred platforms prioritizing individual freedoms and human rights. Social justice and workers’ rights drew 33 percent support, while 26 percent favored nationalist parties. Only 5 percent backed groups emphasizing traditional and religious values.
Younger and more educated Iranians leaned heavily toward human rights, environmental, and economic liberalization platforms. By contrast, nationalist orientations were strongest among monarchy supporters.
Leadership support
Among Islamic Republic-affiliated figures, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad each polled at 9 percent. Among opposition figures, exiled prince Reza Pahlavi was the most popular with 31 percent, followed by rapper Toomaj Salehi at 6 percent and jailed Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi at 5 percent.
Pahlavi’s support was higher among men and older, less-educated Iranians, peaking in Gilan province at 42 percent. But in Kurdish and Azeri regions, his support fell below 20 percent.
While most Iranians reject religious and military rule, no single movement or figure yet represents the country’s diversity, the survey concluded.
“The demand for a democratic government is widespread among Iranians, though at the same time, a notable portion of society shows an inclination toward individual authoritarianism,” Maleki said.
“No political or civil figure currently enjoys majority support in society. Each political cluster represents only a portion (between 5% to 35%) of the population, and no single opposition force is capable of representing the full diversity present within the country.”
Since June 2024, when the GAMAAN survey was conducted, major developments — including the 2024 presidential election and the 2025 twelve-day war between Iran and Israel — have taken place that may further influence Iranian public opinion.
