A brief Mideast war in June war exposed the weakness of Iran's ties with key allies China and Russia according to an Israeli think-tank, exposing Tehran's isolation in one of its weakest moments.
“The policy of Moscow and Beijing, which consisted of fairly mild condemnations of the Israeli and US strikes in Iran, sparked criticism and disappointment in Tehran," a research paper from the Institute of National Security Studies (INSS) said.
“It also reinforced the Iranian assessment that its reliance on Russia and China remains limited, particularly in the event of a military confrontation with Israel and the United States," the report by Danny Citrinowicz and Raz Zimmt added.
The 12-day war, initiated by a surprise campaign of Israeli strikes and assassinations on June 13 which killed senior military figures and nuclear experts, saw Iran fighting both Israel and the US, while China and Russia resisted involvement.
The US struck Iran's three biggest nuclear facilities while Israel took control of Iran's aerial defense systems and destroyed swathes of military and nuclear infrastructure, along with civilian sites such as Evin Prison, leaving its foe much weakened.
Israel too suffered major blows with Iranian missile barrages which struck military and civilian infrastructure.
“It is clear that for now, Iran has no viable alternative to continuing its political, economic, and security partnership, as limited as it may be, with Russia and China, especially given the escalating tensions between Tehran and Europe,” the paper said, referring to the imminent threat of a snapback of UN sanctions due by the end of the month from Britain, France and Germany.
"Likewise, Russia and China, who view Iran as a junior partner in a coalition against the West and the United States, have no real alternative to Tehran, and they are expected to continue the partnership as long as it serves their interests,” the authors said.
Iran relies on China as its number one buyer of oil, and has deep ties with Russia militarily as a supplier of a kamikaze drone which has been key to Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.
A diplomatic tightrope
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian attended a major military parade in Beijing on Wednesday marking the 80th anniversary of Japan's surrender in World War II.
President Xi Jinping, flanked by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, used the parade to project China's military strength, and Pezeshkian appeared to be nearer the back of assembled heads of state.
“(China and Russia) would not hesitate to sacrifice Iran to advance important strategic goals, such as improving relations with Washington," the Israeli researchers added.
The paper noted that there was some caution in Iran's often raucous political discourse about directly criticizing the Eurasian allies.
“Circles identified with the conservative and hardliner wing of Iran’s leadership refrained from voicing similar criticism and instead expressed understanding of Russia and China’s conduct,” the paper said.
“For example, Yadollah Javani, the head of the political bureau of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, declared that Iran had not requested assistance from Russia or China during the war, emphasizing that the military cooperation agreement between Tehran and Moscow does not obligate Russia to support Iran in wartime.”
Condemnation from Beijing and Moscow
China's foreign ministry "strongly condemned" the Israeli and US strikes, urging de-escalation while Russia slammed them as "unprovoked and unacceptable" in a statement through the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.
In March, the three nations carried out a joint naval drill in the Gulf of Oman, an annual drill the three allies performed in recent years as ties deepened.
“At the conclusion of Operation Rising Lion, pragmatic circles in Iran voiced criticism mainly at Russia and, to a lesser extent, China for refraining from providing assistance to Iran during the war and limiting themselves to condemning the Israeli and American strikes, especially given Iran’s significant military support for Russia since its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022,” the researchers said, echoing the fears in Iran itself of too much dependence on the two allies.
