Iran’s goal of achieving 8% economic growth, a key target of its seventh five-year development plan, faces steep hurdles, with economists warning that key drivers such as investment, productivity, and financing are faltering, the daily Samt reported on Monday.
“Economic growth requires prerequisites such as a favorable business environment, sound economic governance, access to technology and adequate financing. Each of these can be likened to an engine powering growth. The problem is that none of these engines are running,” wrote the paper, which covers industry, mining and trade.
According to the report, the government’s latest decree estimates Iran would need nearly 80 quadrillion rials (about $80 billion) in combined private, public and cooperative investment in the current Iranian year (started on March 21) to hit the 8% target, factoring in capital depreciation, labor contributions and productivity gains. Current financing plans leave a shortfall of about 27.9 quadrillion rials (about $28 billion).
The report listed funding sources ranging from banks and capital markets to foreign investment, the sovereign wealth fund and private savings. But it warned that reliance on public budgets and banks alone is insufficient.
Economist Vahid Shaghaghi-Shahri told the paper: “At present all our engines of economic growth have not only stalled but are working in reverse. In this context, even preventing negative growth should be considered an achievement.”
He cited housing, oil revenues and productivity as sectors in decline, while financial channels needed to supply about $200 billion annually are blocked by sanctions, low investor confidence and structural weaknesses.
Another economist, Mehdi Pazouki, argued that “without economic health no rational investor will commit to Iran.”
He said previous development programs had all set 8% growth targets that were never achieved. “When energy shortages restrict production and the business climate is hostile, such a goal is at best rhetorical,” he told the paper.
Both experts stressed the need for international engagement and domestic reforms. Pazouki said: “For meaningful growth we must first restore international relations and improve the business environment. Otherwise, capital will continue to flow abroad instead of into domestic industry.”
The report comes amid starkly different official data. Iran’s Central Bank recently announced growth of more than 3% in 2024, comparing Iran favorably to the US and eurozone, while the IMF in May projected growth of just 0.3% this year with inflation topping 43%.
Independent analysts say power shortages, a plunging rial and tighter US sanctions have pushed the economy toward stagnation.
Shaghaghi warned that unless Iran activates its “engines of growth,” negative GDP growth could emerge as early as 2026. “It is better to set realistic goals in line with our economic conditions and avoid rhetorical targets,” he said.
“Turning education into a commodity has deprived many working-class children of their right to study,” labor activist Maziar Gilaninejad told labor news outlet ILNA.
He cited official figures and media reports showing steep increases in school-related expenses, including a 30% rise in stationery prices, costs of about 3.5 million rials (about $35) for basic supplies for one elementary student, and reports of 750,000 children leaving school due to poverty.
He added that the result is “a direct link” between rising dropouts and the growth in child labor, with many minors pushed into hazardous workshops to support their families.
“The reality is families need their children’s wages as much as they cannot afford school fees,” he said.
Parents have echoed the concerns. Earlier this month, Iran International reported that families are often asked to pay “voluntary” enrollment fees or provide unpaid labor, such as cleaning classrooms, to secure places for their children. In some cases, schools have withheld report cards until payments were made.
University tuition has also surged, with students reporting fees doubling at some institutions in recent semesters.
“Education is becoming an exclusive path for the wealthy,” Gilaninejad said, citing data that the top 3,000 scorers in this year’s university entrance exam came almost entirely from affluent families.
Article 30 of Iran’s constitution guarantees free education, but Iran spends just 2.93% of GDP on education, well below the global average of 4.4%, according to the Global Economy data service.
Gilaninejad said neglecting this obligation risks producing “a generation systematically sidelined from opportunity” and perpetuating cycles of poverty.
Under Shi'ite law, a man can have four permanent wives simultaneously and any number of temporary wives. He needs his first wife’s consent for additional permanent marriages, but not for temporary ones.
Women, by contrast, can only enter one temporary marriage at a time and, after termination, must wait at least 45 days before remarrying to establish paternity if pregnant.
“I don’t know a single woman around me who would agree to a temporary marriage, unless she is involved with a married man and wants to protect herself from being charged with adultery if discovered,” said Taraneh, an art teacher in Tehran.
“In these cases, it’s more a formality than religiosity. Just like an affair, they hide it from everyone, even their family and friends.”
Taraneh explained that stigma is deeply rooted. The longstanding association between temporary marriage and prostitution, she said, reinforces secrecy and social judgment, especially against women.
“But in some poorer rural areas I’ve visited, it is somehow more common for widowed or divorced women who are unable to financially support themselves to marry temporarily with men whose wives will not allow them to officially take second wives,” she added.
“However, even these are normally longer-term and not publicized. Everyone considers very short-term temporary marriages shameful because of the money involved."
Temporary marriage in Shi'ite Islam
Under Shi'ite Islamic law, temporary marriage, known in Persian as sigheh or mut‘ah, is a marriage contract with a set duration. The term may last from a few hours to several years, depending on the agreement.
The contract is usually verbal and consists of the man and woman (or their representatives) reciting a formula (sigheh) that specifies the agreed duration and a predetermined dowry (mahr). Witnesses are not required for it to be valid.
Since 2013, temporary marriage has been legally recognized in Iran, though registration is only required if a child is conceived.
If registered or witnessed, temporary marriage allows recognition of children and provide some legal security to women. Once the term ends, the marriage automatically dissolves without requiring divorce proceedings.
Children are legally recognized, with inheritance and custody rights, though complications often arise if the marriage is not officially registered.
Unlike permanent marriage, a woman in temporary marriage is not entitled to alimony after expiration and has no right of inheritance from her temporary husband.
Widows and divorced women may enter temporary marriage without paternal consent. Unmarried girls, however, need their father’s approval, as in permanent marriage. The minimum legal age for girls is 13, fueling concern about child marriage in poor areas.
Sunni Islam does not recognize temporary marriage.
Sex trade in disguise
Islamic jurists describe temporary marriage as a legitimate solution to sexual needs and a safeguard against prostitution.
Although prostitution is explicitly criminalized and punishable in Iran, sigheh still enjoys legal backing, and its broad interpretations have created a religious-legal loophole that paves the way for exploitation.
The sex trade often operates under the guise of temporary marriage. This is especially visible in religious cities such as Mashhad and Qom, pilgrimage hubs where millions travel each year.
Since its legal recognition, numerous social media channels have openly advertised temporary marriage, offering arrangements from “one-hour to longer terms,” for fixed fees.
Even clerics who accept the principle of sigheh criticize this trend. They argue that it normalizes polygamy or masks prostitution.
“Can you believe that some ignorant, clueless people have set up [Telegram] channels to promote polygamy and temporary marriage? They claim they are reviving the Prophet’s tradition!" wrote cleric Ehsan Ebadi on X.
"Curse on you—you have understood neither the Prophet, nor Islam, nor the philosophy behind these rulings. All you are doing is tarnishing the image of religious people."
Javan newspaper, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, reported on September 20 that the growth of online channels and pages under the titles of matchmaking and sigheh-finding has turned into a platform for fraud and exploitation of users.
“The rapid increase of these channels is a serious alarm bell for society.”
