Zahra Shahbaz Tabari, a 67-year-old Iranian political prisoner, has been sentenced to death by a revolutionary court on charges of collaboration with groups fighting the Islamic Republic, a US-based human rights group said on Saturday.
The June conflict was capped off on June 22 with US strikes on major nuclear sites, marking the superpower's first direct assault on Iranian territory after decades of proxy conflicts.
Tehran's lack of any meaningful retaliation, Yaphe said, laid bare how exposed 86-year-old Supreme Leader Khamenei was and how a security apparatus he had built up for decades had failed to perform.
"It’s very hard to see how Iran regains legitimacy,” said Yaphe, who worked as a Middle East analyst for the State Department for 15 years.
“These are the people who crafted the narratives of the ‘resistance economy’ and other doctrines supporting Khamenei’s agenda,” he added. “That generation is retiring, dying off, or leaving leadership roles, with no coherent transition plan for what comes next.”
Iran’s central challenge, he said, is generational. The revolutionary cadre from the 1979 Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War built key institutions such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Basij domestic militia and economic conglomerates which dominate large sectors of the economy.
Memory of pre-1979 grievances such rural inequality under the Shah as well as torture and killings by his security agencies, Yaphe says, lingers strongly for the superannuated ruling cadres.
These authorities remain committed to anti-Western confrontation and nuclear advancement, viewing compromise as weakness, according to Yaphe.
“The government in Iran has chosen to die on a particular hill, and they’re going to die there slowly, in their sleep,” he said. “It’s going to be a very slow, mundane transition, the outcome is likely gradual change rather than abrupt upheaval.”
Even the most apparently reactionary institutions like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could theoretically play a role in a transition.
"In the event of a change in power, there’s no future for the Guards as they exist today,” he said. “Internally, the IRGC could pursue a coup or maintain clerical oversight to preserve influence—they’ll have to weigh costs and benefits.”
Across the region, Yaphe said Islamist movements are declining, citing sidelined groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and weakened Iranian proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
‘Next move happens soon’
Donald Trump’s maximum pressure campaign and the 2020 US assassination of senior IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani were major turning points, Yaphe said.
“Actions under Trump advanced these trends. The Soleimani strike disproved fears of escalation, direct measures disrupted Iran’s comfort with covert operations dating back to its 1982 interventions in Lebanon," he said, referring to the IRGC's founding of its powerful Lebanese affiliate Hezbollah.
“Iran prefers operating in the shadows,” Yaphe added. “Israel and the US responded forcefully, degrading proxies - probably the most effective approach.”
He criticized Washington’s traditional Iran policy as overly partisan: negotiation-driven on the left, confrontational on the right, but often lacking depth.
The analyst contrasted this with Trump’s approach, which, he said, prioritized results over ideology.
“President Trump has specified acceptable terms,” Yaphe said. “Tehran, still trapped in 1979-era thinking, doesn’t grasp the shift toward pragmatic power dynamics. They don’t seem to understand that the West will act.”
“In the next three to five years, something significant will happen in Iran,” Yaphe said. “Either way, it won’t remain the Islamic Republic we know today.”
Alcohol accounted for about five percent of all poisoning fatalities in the first five months of the current Iranian year, identifying illicitly produced drinks as the main source, said the Organization. It recorded 4,232 deaths from various types of poisoning during the period and noted a slight decline in alcohol-related fatalities compared with last year, when they made up six percent of the total.
Alcohol intoxication, according to hospital data, accounted for ten percent of poisoning-related admissions last year, falling to 8.5 percent in the first half of this year. Deputy Health Minister Alireza Raeisi said on October 11 that the actual number of alcohol poisoning cases was likely “ten times higher than those reaching emergency units.”
Alcohol ban and black market trade
The sale and consumption of alcohol have been banned in Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, with production, purchase, or use punishable by imprisonment, flogging, or fines. Repeat offenders can face the death penalty.
Despite strict penalties, demand for alcohol has persisted, driving a widespread underground market. Bootleg drinks, often made with toxic industrial methanol, continue to claim lives each year across the country.
Public health experts warn that the recurring poisonings underscore a growing social divide between state restrictions and personal behavior. Many Iranians view the persistence of black-market alcohol as evidence of resistance to religious regulation over private life.
The deaths caused by bootleg alcohol, the Legal Medicine Organization said, remain preventable through public education, early medical response, and stronger oversight of illegal production and distribution networks.
Authorities have accused her of links to the exiled opposition group Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MEK), a charge the family denies, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA).
The ruling was issued last week by Judge Ahmad Darvish of Branch One of the Rasht Revolutionary Court following a brief video hearing. Shahbaz Tabari’s trial lasted less than ten minutes, and her family called the proceedings sham and illegal, HRANA wrote.
She had no access to an independent lawyer, her son told HRANA. “The court-appointed attorney did not defend her and simply endorsed the verdict…The entire session was a show.”
He added that his mother had no connection with any political organization and that the accusations were entirely fabricated.
Shahbaz Tabari was arrested on April 17 at her home in Rasht and transferred to Lakan Prison. Security forces searched her residence and confiscated family belongings during the arrest.
The evidence cited in her case included a piece of cloth bearing the slogan ‘Woman, Resistance, Freedom’ and an unpublished voice message. There was no indication of organizational or armed activity, her family said.
Family appeal
“The judge smiled while announcing the death sentence,” her family said, describing the hearing as “a clear violation of human rights.”
They have seven days to appeal and have called on international human rights groups for urgent intervention.
Shahbaz Tabari is an electrical engineer and member of Iran’s Engineering Organization. She holds a master’s degree in Sustainable Energy from the University of Borås in Sweden and was previously detained for peaceful online activity before being released with an electronic ankle tag, HRANA said.
The sentence comes amid what activists describe as a surge in executions across Iran. The Iran Human Rights Society said 28 inmates were executed on October 22 alone, bringing the total for the month to 280.
Amnesty International warned on October 16 that more than 1,000 people have been executed in Iran so far in 2025, many following unfair trials aimed at silencing dissent.
The rights group urged UN member states to take immediate action, calling the executions “a shocking spree” averaging four per day.
