US Should Use Deterrence Against Iran's Nuclear Option, Says Former Top Official
Former top US diplomat Dennis Ross
The United States should aim at deterrence, rather than containment in any deal with Iran that allows it to keep uranium enriched to 60 percent, a former top official wrote in the Washington Post.
Dennis Ross, a former special assistant to President Barack Obama, and a diplomat with long experience in the Middle East argued in an op-ed published June 23 that if reports about a new limited deal with Iran are true, the Biden administration might be changing its approach.
The deal reportedly hinges on the premise that Iran keeps its highly enriched uranium, practically making it a nuclear threshold state that could quickly decide to produce a weapon.
“Instead of seeking to prevent Iran from going nuclear as it has up until now, the United States would be tacitly shifting to a policy of accepting Iran’s nuclear status and relying on deterrence. It would be shifting from a policy of prevention to a policy of containment,” Ross argued.
He further reasoned that “Such a posture would all but guarantee nuclear proliferation across the Middle East,” where Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt may decide to obtain nuclear weapons.
“The Biden administration must therefore structure any forthcoming deal with prevention — not containment — as its goal,” Ross said advocating that first, a deal limited to the end of Biden’s first term. Second, the US should make it clear that if Iran moves toward producing a weapon it will destroy all its nuclear infrastructure.
Third, the US “should conduct exercises in the region rehearsing attacks against hardened targets to underline its seriousness,” Ross underlines.
European Union foreign policy mediator Enrique Mora has reiterated that the 2015 nuclear deal still is the “best possible” framework to address Iran’s nuclear program.
Mora, the deputy secretary general of the European External Action Service (EEAS), said in a tweet on Friday, “For the EU, the JCPOA is the best possible, if not the only, framework to address the legitimate non-proliferation concerns of the international community on the Iranian nuclear program."
"I had a serious and constructive meeting with Mora in Doha. We exchanged views and discussed a range of issues including negotiations on sanctions lifting," Iran’s deputy foreign minister and chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri-Kani also said on Twitter, without elaborating.
The comments were made after meetings between Mora and Bagheri-Kani in Qatar on Wednesday in what was seen as an attempt to tackle nuclear talks suspended since last September.
Tehran did not sign on to a compromise draft agreement the EU had presented in mid-2022 to revive the JCPOA.
The United States began to say in October that it was not pursuing the JCPOA talks, but recently there have been a flurry of reports about Washington discussing a limited or interim unwritten deal with Islamic Republic, prompting Congressional opposition.
The deal is said to be based on partial financial incentives to Iran in return for not enriching uranium beyond 60 percent, but leaving Tehran with the potential means to develop nuclear weapons.
Bagheri Kani said last week that he had met his British, German and French counterparts in the United Arab Emirates to discuss "a range of issues and mutual concerns".
Iran's chief justice claimed he is battling corruption in government bodies without mentioning cases in entities under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s control.
In a televised interview aired by the state broadcaster IRIB Wednesday evening, Gholamreza Mohseni-Ejei said he and the organizations under his supervision would never shut their eyes to corruption and infringements of the law, and in some cases their actions have upset the government of President Ebrahim Raisi and caused complaints.
No mention was made, by Ejei or the interviewer of corruption cases including a new scandal that involves the family of the head of the State Endowment Organization Mehdi Khamoushi, a Khamenei appointee.
Critics often allege that IRIB interviews with top state officials are scripted, and interviewers always refrain from challenging the interviewees.
Iran's chief justice Gholamreza Mohseni-Ejei talking to the head of state broadcaster IRIB, Peyman Jebelli, on June 21, 2023
Hardliner whistle-blower Vahid Ashtari revealed in a series of tweets on June 18 that a 150-hectare piece of land endowed by a local family in Qazvin including a farm with 1,000 cattle has been rented out to Mona Chaychian, Khamoushi’s daughter-in-law, at a monthly rent of 10m rials (around $20 at current exchange rates).
Ashtari who dubbed the case as “Daughter-in-Law Favoritism in Endowment Organization” pointed out in his tweets that young couples are unable to rent a basement in the outskirts of the city of Qazvin with the same amount of money as a point of comparison.
“The Endowments [Organization has officially turned into the back yard of corruption [-mongers],” he wrote.
The Organization has confirmed the deal but claimed that Khamoushi was not involved in it and threatened to sue the whistle-blower.
Ashtari is a member of Edalat Khahan (Justice Seekers), a political group of mainly university students who are loyal to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and are also close to former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili who ran against Raisi.
Gholam-Ali Jafarzadeh, an outspoken former lawmaker, said Wednesday he was barred from running in the previous parliamentary elections because he had been investigating allegations of corruption in the Endowment Organization.
But no one is sure if there is a political agenda behind the revelations by the hardliner group.
In April 2022, Ashtari’s revelations sparked the Layette-gate scandal that led to calls for the resignation of Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and resurfacing of other alleged corruption cases against his family.
Ashtari revealed that Ghalibaf’s wife, daughter and son-in-law had returned from Turkey with massive extra luggage including a baby bed and stroller that formed part of the layette for his yet unborn grandchild.
Critics accused Ghalibaf of hypocrisy for admonishing others for luxury and telling Iranians they should support domestically made products, and telling those who are suffering economic hardships to be patient, when his own family travels abroad to buy luxury products.
Some hardliners claimed that Jalili and the ultra-hardliner Paydari Front were behind the scandal. They also said these political rivals wanted to oust the speaker and takeover the Parliament's presidium.
Ashtari has been sentenced to two years in prison and deprivation from media and social media activity for his role in “Layette Gate” but has apparently appealed the sentence.
As many US lawmakers pressure the Biden administration on Iran, more than 200 prominent Iranian Americans have asked Congress to subpoena President Biden's envoy.
In a letter to Rep. Michael McCaul, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the Iranian American activists asked him to subpoena US special envoy for Iran Robert Malley over his history of confidential engagements with high-ranking Islamic Republic regime officials with ill will towards the US, as well as his intent on pursuing a policy of appeasement in favor of the biggest state sponsor of terrorism.
“Mr. Malley’s conduct is not acceptable to us as Americans of Iranian origin, especially while we witness people inside Iran being slaughtered by the regime in the streets and tortured in prisons by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a US-designated terrorist organization,” reads the letter.
Imploring McCaul to subpoena Malley to provide a rundown of what has been agreed upon with the regime, they added, “We consider access to and knowledge of this information to be unalienable right of the American people and our community.”
Some prominent signatories were; Reza Behrouz, physician and Professor at the University of Texas ; Yass Alizadeh, Assistant Professor of Persian language and literature at New York University; Atlanta-based attorney Sasan Nematbakhsh; DC-based legal scholar Shima Bozorgi; Amin Sophiamehr, philosophy instructor from Indiana University and Sara Eshaghi of the California-based group, “Action for Iran.”
The former intelligence chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards says the US has sent messages to the regime to say it is not seeking a regime change in Iran.
Hossein Taeb said Thursday that the US sent the message through three neighboring countries of Iraq, Qatar and Oman, saying that it is not looking to overthrow the regime "so let's negotiate and reach an understanding.”
Taeb, who now serves as an advisor to the Guards commander-in-chief, claimed that Washington’s volte-face is the result of the “stability” of the Islamic Republic.
“In the hybrid warfare the enemies launched against our country last year, they intended to put Iran at the crossroads of continuing its revolutionary path or facing international isolation," he said, boasting that they failed.
“Friends and foes have understood that they need to interact with the Islamic Republic,” he added.
In the Islamic Republic jargon, ‘enemies’ usually means the United States and Israel, and recently every entity and individual who has expressed support for antiregime protests ignited by the death in custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in September 2022.
It has been the boldest uprising against the Islamic Republic since establishment in 1979 when the regime adopted a staunch anti-West and anti Israel foreign policy, and domination of the region.
Taeb added that the US presence in the Middle East is weakening partly due to the war in Ukraine and many countries are choosing a more independent path.
He claimed that, nevertheless, the enemies attempt to create “an all-encompassing riot before the upcoming elections aimed at boycotting and postponing the elections under various pretexts.” He was referring to Iran's parliamentary elections in March 2024.
Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis has criticized the Biden administration over its Iran policy, vowing a stronger posture against the clerical regime.
DeSantis, presumed to be Donald Trump’s main competitor on the path to the 2024 Republican nomination, told Israel Hayom Thursday that the current administration is “more interested in kowtowing to Iran than standing by our allies,” describing US-Israel relationship under President Joe Biden as “disgraceful.”
“My view as president would be we're going to have a really strong US-Israel relationship,” said DeSantis, who announced his presidential bid in May and polls show that he currently has the best shot at beating Trump in the fight over his party's nomination.
Accusing the administration of prioritizing Iran over Israel, he said “You can't try to cozy up to them (Iranians). "So we would be supportive of Israel's predicament. And obviously, we would have a much stronger posture against Iran."
“The whole Obama-Khamenei deal [2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement] was a total disaster and Biden is trying to resuscitate,” he said, highlighting that concessions to the Iranian regime means more money used to foment terrorism.
He vowed to squeeze the Islamic Republic so that the regime understands that pursuit of terrorism “is going to be bad for them economically, diplomatically, and potentially even militarily. “That is the way the only thing that the mullahs understand – strength," he underlined.
“Iran represents an existential threat to the State of Israel. Now they would love to wipe Israel off the map. They would love to wipe out America,” he added.