Iran's Rial Falls 10% In Less Than A Month Amid Regional Tensions
Iran’s rial has fallen 10 percent since early January as tensions have risen in the region, with concerns rising about possible hostilities with the US or Israel.
Iran’s rial has fallen 10 percent since early January as tensions have risen in the region, with concerns rising about possible hostilities with the US or Israel.
On Tuesday the US dollar rose to more than 550,000 rials, which means the Iranian currency has fallen 13-fold since 2018, when the United States exited the JCPOA nuclear deal and imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and international banking.
The euro hit 600,000 rials and the British pound traded at 700,000 rials in Tehran's free currency market, which despite some official exchange rates, reflects real exchange rates.
Although during the Biden administration the sanctions have not been rigorously enforced and Iran has been able to somewhat recover its oil exports, the country’s financial situation remains precarious.
The rials fall quickened last week, when Iran fired ballistic missiles at targets in Iraq and Pakistan, claiming retaliation against Israel and terrorists. Pakistan retaliated by airstrikes on targets in Iran, raising concerns about some kind of war breaking out with neighbors, or with the United States and Israel. Already tensions were high because of Iran-backed Houthis attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
The annual inflation rate is at least 50 percent, with rial’s fall signaling higher inflation in the months to come. Monthly salaries for workers are less than $200 a month, as inflation rises faster than salaries in a depressed economy. There have been work stoppages and protests in many sectors, including oil and gas production platforms and refineries. Many essential goods such as wheat and animal feed are imported and rial’s fall signals higher consumer prices.
Javad Heravi, the spokesman for the Moderation and Development Party, closely associated with Former President Hassan Rouhani and Former Vice President Mohammad Baqer Nobakht, announced on Monday that very few candidates have been approved to run. Other likeminded parties also do not have enough approved candidates to form a coalition with them.
In Heravi's words, "Practically, we are not players any longer," indicating that one of the most significant moderate parties in Iran will not participate in the elections. He added, "We are not to be blamed if we do not have a list of candidates for the election."
Iran's elections are not free from the start, with stringent vetting processes conducted by the interior ministry and the Guardian Council. This process has become increasingly political since 2020, resulting in the rejection of most non-hardliner candidates. As a result, hardliners, who are loyal to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, dominate the elections.
This situation effectively means that hardliners have already predetermined who can run and win in the elections, as nearly all ultraconservative candidates have passed the Guardian Council's scrutiny.
The party also criticized Iran's foreign policy, citing recent missile attacks on neighboring countries and stating that it has left voters concerned about the upcoming elections. Additionally, Iran’s 50-percent annual inflation rate and economic crisis have added to people's anxieties in the weeks leading up to the election.
Heravi explained that the Majles (parliament) cannot bring about positive change without elected lawmakers, and this can only happen with a high-turnout election. The party currently has 40 candidates remaining after the vetting process, but it will not release a candidate list unless it can field enough candidates for all constituencies in the country.
Furthermore, the party's spokesman noted that state television and the government appear to treat the elections as a competition among conservatives, and many former lawmakers, including those close to former Majles Speaker Ali Larijani, have been disqualified by the Guardian Council. Heravi emphasized, "Party members and others cannot expect anything from us while we have not been given a chance to compete."
Media reports indicate, the Guardian Council has not yet finalized the vetting results for 26 current members of the parliament and dozens of former lawmakers who have contested their disqualifications.
A former senior lawmaker, who has been disqualified by the Guardian Council, is Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, the former head of the Iranian parliament and commentator who regularly writes about Iran's foreign policy with a critical view.
Meanwhile, Hadi Tahan Nazif, the spokesman for the Guardian Council has said that 12,033 candidates have been approved to run in the upcoming election. He confirmed that 26 incumbent MPs, as well as tens of former lawmakers, have been rejected. However, he added that the Guardian Council will soon release one more list of qualified candidates.
In the face of public reluctance to vote and the lack of popular support for participating in the election, the government has mobilized clerics and young seminarians to encourage voter turnout. Seminary students have formed a group called "Forty Days of Advice" to motivate people in the 40 days leading up to the election. However, clerics do not enjoy significant popularity in Iranian society, which poses a challenge to this propaganda effort.
A cleric, Jalal Razavi Mehr, the head of the Association of Qom Seminary Students has said that voting in the election is as important as honoring the chastity of one's wife and daughters.
