Iran's Expediency Council Head Acknowledges Economic Hardships
In a candid admission, the head of Iran's Expediency Council addressed the pressing economic issues faced by a significant portion of the population during a speech on Wednesday.
In a candid admission, the head of Iran's Expediency Council addressed the pressing economic issues faced by a significant portion of the population during a speech on Wednesday.
Sadegh Amoli Larijani attributed the challenges to rampant inflation and a surge in prices, underscoring the strain on citizens, partly attributing it to inadequacies in official measures. Global sanctions have had a huge impact on the economy, first imposed due to Iran's nuclear program and more recently, for its crackdown on protesters and support for Russia in its war on Ukraine.
Downplaying the economic disaster which has seen millions thrust into poverty, Larijiani said, "There are issues in the country, but it should be noted that if there is authority and security in the Islamic Republic system, the economic situation will also improve".
However, concerns about security persist in Iran, as officials grapple to provide adequate protection. Earlier this month, a commemoration ceremony for the former IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani in Kerman resulted in the death of at least 95 people after a double bombing by ISIS, highlighting the ongoing challenges faced by Iranian authorities in maintaining public safety.
A recent report indicates that the impact of inflation is more severe than officially acknowledged. The Fararu website in Tehran revealed that the point-to-point inflation rate in December exceeded 40%, surpassing the average figure announced by authorities. The index suggests that Iranian households spent approximately 40% more in the past month compared to the same period in the previous year to fulfill their needs and purchase essential goods and services.
According to the Iran Statistical Center's definition, the point-to-point inflation rate represents the percentage change in the average of the price indices compared to the previous year, providing a more tangible perspective on understanding price hikes. The reported point-to-point rate for the past month stood at 44.4%, surpassing the government's predicted annual rate of 25% for the current Iranian year, which began on March 21.
A report in Foreign Policy Wednesday suggested that “the White House is no longer invested in sustaining a mission that it perceives as unnecessary,” quoting “four sources within the Defense and State departments”.
But a Pentagon spokesperson has called the report “erroneous,” according to the Russian RIA Novosty, which had submitted a query to the US Department of Defense.
A withdrawal would be a gift to Iran and its affiliated groups in Iraq and Syria, who have been launching attacks on US forces with the exact same goal. A similar likelihood exists in Iraq, where pro-Iranian groups dominating the parliament have been demanding the withdrawal of US and coalition forces.
The issue is far from clear however.
Charles Lister, director of the Syria and Counterterrorism and Extremism programs at the Middle East Institute, who has penned the FP report admits that “no definitive decision has been made” within policy circles of the Biden administration.
Senior, well-placed reporters and observers like Alex Ward of Politico and Aaron Y. Zellin of the Washington Institute have posted conflicting opinions on the matter, both quoting unnamed US officials denying the report.
“I'm actually encouraged to see the White House and Department of Defense come out so quickly to deny,” Lister wrote on X, commenting on rejections of his FP report, “it shows the kind of sensitivity that normally exists only when the claim is true.”
Earlier in the week, reports emerged of a US national security meeting to discuss a plan to urge the Kurdish forces in Syria to partner with the Assad regime against ISIS. Such a plan, if true, would be in line (or complement) any withdrawal plan –to address the vacuum created by the likely absence of American troops.
The Pentagon was quick to deny the report, however, according to CNN, claiming that there was “no intention” to support a partnership between Assad and the Kurds.
But Amberin Zaman –who had broken the report for AlMonitor– hit back with more details to back up her original story.
“An interagency policy committee meeting to explore the idea was held on Jan. 18,” she posted on X. “Are they denying that the sub IPC where the subject was raised as per my admin sources took place?”
Policy circles do look at various scenarios and it would be far from surprising for them to study an eventual withdrawal of US forces from Syria. To ‘consider’ it in a US election year, and in the middle of an ongoing crisis in the region, however, would be a different story altogether.
Since October last year, armed groups backed by Iran have launched more than 150 attacks against American forces in Syria and Iraq. The attacks are said to be in support of Palestinians in Gaza who have been enduring an Israeli onslaught for more than 100 days –following Hamas rampage of border areas inside Israel on 7 October.
That may very well be true –in the short term. The long game, however, has always been to “kick the Americans out of the region,” as stated in clearest terms by many Iranian officials.
It’s hard to draw conclusions from what has been reported so far. But it’s not that hard to imagine the Biden administration contemplating a withdrawal, taking into account its track record in the Middle East, in general, and its Iran policy, in particular. Critics have pointed out the lack of a coherent policy and an eagerness to appease Iran and avoid escalation regardless of Tehran's actions.
A complete pullout of American troops from Syria may be farther away than suggested in the Foreign Policy report. Any such report, however, even if rejected by US officials as has been this one, would be music to the Ayatollah’s ears.
The March 1 election is strictly limited to ultraconservative candidates with minimal participation from other conservatives. Reformist and moderate candidates are effectively barred from running. Voter turnout is also expected to be extremely low, partly due to what former President Hassan Rouhani has called “meaningless elections.”
The state television (IRIB) is strictly under the control of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s office and is the sole broadcaster in Iran.
The advertising plan which calls for up to 1,5 billion rials ($3,000) per advertisement has been widely criticized by candidates, journalists, politicians, and members of the public, as biased, unlawful and impractical. Although this can be considered a modest amount of money in other countries, in case of Iran the average employee makes a little over $200 per month.
Some have also accused IRIB managers of being greedy and wanting to accumulate cash to add to their hefty annual budget from the government, a huge advertising revenue, and ad hoc handouts in foreign currency from the National Development Fund.
Previously, limited candidate ads were allowed for presidential campaigns but the practice never applied to parliamentary elections.
Meanwhile, according to Etemad newspaper in Tehran, based on nine different polls conducted between 2014 and 2021, IRIB's viewership has been constantly falling. In all, the broadcaster has lost over 45 percent of its viewers during seven years, due to dull programming and highly biased reporting.
According to Etemad, the latest amendment of the election law prohibits advertising election campaigns on homegrown and foreign social media and generally on the Internet.
On the other hand, IRIB Chief, Payman Jebelli, has told the Iranian government that it has prepared for launching 200 election campaign channels and will sell airtime to candidates.
Although advertising on some of Iran's Tv channels including Channel 3, which broadcasts entertainment and sports programs, and the Sports Channel which broadcasts popular athletic events, might make sense at certain times, channels dedicated to election are meaningless for viewers as interest in political activity has dropped to under 20 percent of eligible voters in Tehran as a result of people's dissatisfaction with the government's performance and their grievances about the harsh treatment of protesters in recent years.
Advertisers in Iran generally know that the best time for airing ads is before and after football (soccer) matches and major TV serials. It is reasonable to believe that the only people interested in the election campaign channels' output are likely to be the candidates, their campaign managers and a very limited number of general viewers.
On the other hand, many candidates including two of IRIB's own employees, Amir Hossein Sabeti and Mohamad Reza Ranjbaran have complained about the IRIB's pricing of advertising for candidates. As regular employees, the advertising fee is an astronomical figure for them.
Ranjbaran wrote that the IRIB is set to make around 4.2 trillion rials out of advertising for Tehran candidates alone. Sabeti wrote a letter to the IRIB Chief and published it in a series of 8 tweets against the advertising plan. In the letter, Sabeti accused the IRIB of capitalism and said it was unbelievable for him that the broadcaster demands such hefty figures for election campaigning.
Like many other social media users, Sabeti wrote that the plan was unfair as those who have money can campaign and those who do not have enough funds cannot.
In other posts on Twitter, Iranian journalist Ehsan Rastegar accused IRIB managers of profiteering and Hesamoddin Ashna, an adviser to Former President Hassan Rouhani who represented the Executive Branch of the government at the IRIB Supervisory Board from 2013 to 2021 questioned the legal basis of the pricing.
IRIB later announced that it has lowered advertising rates particularly for candidates from small towns, but rates in the capital, Tehran, seem unchanged.
Regardless of the ongoing controversy, it remains unclear how many minutes of advertising is covered by the rate charged, the format of the advertisements, the specific time slots, and frequency of airing. Etemad claims that the fee covers the airing of a 20-minute video that presents the candidates' backgrounds, plans and perspectives. However, it's worth noting that the video will undergo a review (including potential censorship) before being broadcast.
The news still awaited confirmation by the Interior Ministry when Rouhani's official account on X announced that he has been barred from running for the Assembly that is tasked with choosing the Islamic Republic's next Supreme Leader.
The interior ministry and the Guardian Council, both in charge of vetting candidates, have rejected hundreds of non-hardliners for the March vote, repeating the same tactic as was employed in the 2020 parliamentary and the 2021 presidential elections. As a result, the outgoing parliament is controlled by ultraconservatives, who also dominate President Ebrahim Raisi’s administration.
Meanwhile, moderate conservative websites such as Khabar Online, which speculated about options ahead of Rouhnai, and Nameh News, which splashed a headline saying, "The End of Rouhani," rather quickly published the first analyses about the implications of this development and Rouhani's choices and political future.
Now, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has effectively alienated all of Iran's former Presidents. Rouhani, the man who was believed to be one of the candidates for succession as Supreme Leader is the last one to be jettisoned out of what many see as Khamenei's sinking ship.
Having served as Iran's security chief for many years, as a member and deputy speaker of parliament and a member of the Assembly of Experts for several rounds, and as Iran's President for eight years, Rouhani’s disqualification sounds odd to anyone not familiar with the political and leadership dynamics in Iran.
Khamenei has not respected the loyalty of any of his obedient servants such as former Majles Speaker Ali Larijani, his close friends such as former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and those he strongly endorsed such as former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Although current President Ebrahim Raisi has never challenged Khamenei, no one can be certain what awaits him at the end.
Guardian Council Spokesman Tahan Nazifhas implied that Rouhani might have to stand trial at the Special Court for Clerics for his involvement in irregularities at the Iranian stock market. However, he said that Rouhani's final disqualification is awaiting the Interior Ministry's confirmation. Meanwhile, the Iranian Students News Agency ISNA, which was one of the first agencies to break the news of Rouhani's disqualification, called the news "a rumor" in a report published Wednesday afternoon.
Hardline politician Javad Karimi Ghoddousi, a staunch critic of Rouhani, resorted to a religious story and alluded to Rouhani's ambitions for rising to become the Islamic Republic's next Supreme Leader.
Iranian journalist Siamak Rahmani wrote that Mostafa Pourmohammadi, Rouhani's Justice Minister and the proprietor of Nameh News has been also disqualified by the Guardian Council. Meanwhile several social media users pointed out that the disqualification of Rouhani shows that the regime does not care about people's participation in the elections.
Another user wrote that it appears that everyone else other than Rouhani himself knew beforehand that he could be disqualified. One said that this was even evident from the start of the second round of Rouhani's presidency in 2017.
Talking about the next level in the Islamic Republic's power hierarchy, Maziar Khosravi, the editor of Faraz Daily website wrote in a tweet: "As the scene is set now, one must recognize Ebrahim Raisi as Iran's next Supreme Leader."
On Rouhani’s future plans, Khabar Online opined that if the disqualification is finalized, Rouhani might follow a course like Rafsanjani and become a kingmaker for the moderate camp: A position less than glamorous considering what happened to Rafsanjani, who was pushed out of the center of power and eventually died in suspicious circumstances in a swimming pool. Nameh News wrote in an analysis entitled "The End of Rouhani": "This is the final shot fired at Rouhani and the moderate camp."
