A satellite image shows the Belize-flagged and UK-owned cargo ship Rubymar, which was attacked by Yemen's Houthis on the Red Sea, February 20, 2024.
The US military said early on Monday that Iran-backed Houthis launched one anti-ship ballistic missile likely targeting the MV Torm Thor, but missed the US-flagged, owned and operated oil tanker, in the Gulf of Aden on February 24.
The US military also shot down in "self-defense" two one-way unmanned aerial attack vehicles over the southern Red Sea on Sunday, Central Command (CENTCOM) said. This followed joint US and British air strikes on a string of Houthi targets in Yemen.
Iran accused the United States and Britain of escalating tensions on Sunday, following the two countries' joint strikes. The Houthis have received extensive Iranian military support and control a substantial part of Yemen.
This was the fourth round of joint strikes to “degrade” the capabilities of the Houthis and came after a marked increase in attacks by the Iran-backed group on ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden last week.
Shortly after the attack, Iran’s foreign ministry issued a statement, accusing the US and Britain of seeking to “escalate” regional tensions and “expand the scope of war and instability.”
A Royal Air Force Typhoon FGR4 has Paveway IV weapons loaded by Weapon Technicians in support of current ongoing operations against Houthi targets in Yemen, February 22, 2024.
“This kind of arbitrary and aggressive military operation, aside from aggravating insecurity and instability in the region, will not achieve anything for these aggressor countries,” said Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Nassar Kanaani.
Iran is known to be the prime sponsor of the Houthis, funding, arming, and even “serving side by side” their forces on the ground. Iranian officials maintain that the Houthis don’t take orders from Tehran, but the relative quiet in Syria and Iraq following the targeted assassinations of a few high-ranking IRGC commanders and US air strikes show that Iran may hold just enough leverage to stop its proxies if and when it finds the alternative too costly.
The Houthis too had all but stopped their attacks for a couple of weeks since early February. But they resumed targeting commercial vessels last week, including a US-owned, flagged and operated ship and a UK-owned, Belize-flagged cargo ship, which remains anchored half-sunk in the Red Sea, leaving behind a 30 km oil slick.
In just three days last week, the Houthis targeted or hit more ships than the preceding 3 weeks combined. Some experts linked the sudden rise in attacks to Iran’s spy ship Behshad resuming operation in the region after 17 days anchoring near a Chinese port-base in Djibouti.
The extensive, joint strike early Sunday (Yemen Time) seems to have been a direct response to the resumption of Houthi attacks –and the targeting of US and UK ships, in particular. About 18 sites across a number of locations were hit in the recent strike, targeting missiles, launchers, rockets, drones and unmanned surface and underwater vehicles, according to US officials.
"We will continue to make clear to the Houthis that they will bear the consequences if they do not stop their illegal attacks,” US defense secretary Lloyd Austin said following the operation, reiterating that the objective was to “further disrupt and degrade the capabilities of the Iranian-backed Houthi militia."
Critics of the Biden administration say the said objective is too conservative as it does not aim to stop and deter. Therefore, they argue, it’s a failure even if it succeeds. Iran can (and does) attempt replenishing the ‘degraded’ capabilities, despite US disruptions –such as their seizure of Iranian weapons shipment to the Houthis.
For more than three months –since the Houthis began their attacks in support of Palestinians following the Israeli onslaught on Gaza– President Biden has been warning that he will not tolerate Houthi attacks against commercial shipping.
But the attacks have continued and have even escalated, taking into account the recent targeting of British and American ships, and the Houthi announcement that the blockade of the Red Sea has been extended from Israel-related vessels to those of the US and the UK.
In the midst of Iran's escalating proxy war, Tehran has leveled accusations of war crimes against the West, just hours after more joint US-UK attack on Yemen's Houthis.
The Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson criticized the United States and the United Kingdom for a series of extensive military attacks on Yemen, stating that “they have once again shown support for the war crimes and genocide perpetrated by the Zionist regime in Gaza and the West Bank.”
The attacks come as the Houthis continue to wage a naval blockade on the Red Sea and surrounding area. Beginning as a show of solidarity with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza, targeting Israeli linked vessels, last week, the terror group as designated by the US and others, announced the US and UK were officially targets too, in response to their support for Israel's right to defend itself.
The conflict was sparked by the Hamas invasion of Israel on October 7, met with a relentless retaliation by Israel, which has become the bloodiest Gaza war since Hamas took control of the strip.
A more than 20-nation coalition has since been formed, led by the US, to counter the Iran-instigated blockade, safeguarding the trade route responsible for at least 12 percent of global trade.
In November, the Houthis hijacked the Galaxy Leader and its 25 crew members who remain in Yemen. Since then, dozens of attacks have been launched by the Houthis towards both Israel and vessels in the area.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert claims that Israel's air force lacks the necessary resources to halt Iran's nuclear program through military action amid the two nations' shadow war.
In an interview with The National Olmert said, "We can destroy their headquarters, important projects, railways, roads, and airports .. Israel can do a lot to damage Iran's infrastructure, but Israel has no means to be able to destroy the nuclear program of Iran."
Despite Israel's longstanding threats to dismantle Iran's nuclear facilities if they approached weapons-grade enrichment, Olmert dismissed the option due to the logistical challenges involved, Israel's air force lacking the capability to penetrate the fortified mountain bunkers housing Iran's nuclear sites.
Olmert pointed out that Israel's advanced F-35A stealth aircraft, with a maximum range of 2,200km, cannot reach Tehran and return without sufficient in-flight refueling tankers. Additionally, Iran's major military sites, such as the Bandar Abbas airbase, are located over 2,000km away from Israel's immediate border.
Enriching uranium to 60% approaches weapons-grade purity, unnecessary for civilian nuclear energy. While Iran denies nuclear weapon ambitions, no nation has enriched to this level without weaponization intent.
Tehran has long threatened to destroy Israel with clocks around Iran counting down until the day the supreme leader predicts that will be. The nuclear issue lies at the heart of the shadow war between the archenemies with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu demanding stronger action from the US and international community in the face of further enrichment.
Last year, he said: “Eight years ago, the Western powers promised that if Iran violated the nuclear deal, the sanctions would be snapped back. Well, Iran is violating the deal, but the sanctions have not been snapped back. To stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions, this policy must change. Sanctions must be snapped back."
A recent poll of US voters suggests about half the electorate think the Biden administration has been too lenient on Iran with two thirds thinking that will lead to war between the two sides.
The survey, conducted in early February by polster Rasmussen Reports and released this week, found that only 1 in 9 of likely voters think the Biden administration has been too aggressive with Iran. The survey of 749 Americans also showed that amid increasing tensions in the Middle East between Iran and the US, 24 percent see such a war as 'very lIkely'.
President Biden has been widely criticized for his Iran policy, which the critics deem too soft and even ‘appeasing.’ In pursuit of a nuclear agreement, Biden and his team reversed Trump’s "maximum pressure" policy, not enforcing oil export sanctions imposed in 2018, and releasing $16 billion in frozen funds last year, which all in all poured tens of billions of dollars to the regime’s coffers.
Biden critics also argue that these funds not only contributed to the October 7th attack, but more generally enabled Iran –through IRGC– to prop up its various proxies in the region and regain its otherwise receding foothold.
The Biden administration’s standard response to such criticisms is that it has been trying to avoid any escalation of the existing crisis, which could lead to direct confrontation with Iran. But this approach seems to have failed, at least as far as the likely American voters are concerned.
Two-thirds of those surveyed by Rasmussen Reports think that the current course of events in the Middle East will likely lead to war between the United States and Iran. Almost a quarter (24 percent) said that a war is "very likely". Only 2 percent felt a war between the countries is "not at all likely."
Each respondent were asked four questions, including:
In his dealings with Iran, has President Biden been too aggressive, not aggressive enough, or has his response been about right?
How likely is it that increasing tensions in the Middle East between Iran and the United States will lead to war?
Does the United States military have the ability to win an all-out war against Iran?
The last question yielded results that are more or less in line with the answers to the preceding questions. Most voters (65 percent) said they think the US military would likely win in an all-out war against Iran. Perhaps more significantly, 15 percent saw that potential war as one the US military cannot win. About 20 percent were unsure.
The survey comes with many usual polling caveats. As such, it does not offer a definite picture; nor could it be used to draw definite conclusions about American voters and their views of the US government’s foreign and defense policy.
Nonetheless, it can be said to highlight Joe Biden’s challenges in dealing with Iran less than nine months to the 2024 Presidential elections. Iran is almost certain to be a theme during the long campaign, especially since it’s increasingly linked with two major American concerns in Washington and beyond: China and Russia.
The two global powers and Iran often (and increasingly) take similar positions in global events. China buys close to the entirety of Iran’s oil exports. The revenue helps Iran fund its drone and missile programs, which is now advanced enough to help Russia in its war on Ukraine. It may not be accurate to call the trio an alliance, but it seems safe to say that they are heading in that direction.
The survey’s other question was on the same subject. “Which is a more dangerous enemy of the United States,” the respondents were asked, “Iran, China or Russia?”
Iranian officials, top IRGC commanders in particular revel in presenting the Islamic Republic as a world power. They will see the subject of Iran in the US presidential race a vindication of their propaganda that the regime is a major global player, irrespective of multiple economic and other crises it faces.
*Rasmussen surveyed 749 likely voters across the United States from Feb. 5-7, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
A leader of the Pakistani Sunni militant group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) has been arrested in southern Iran on charges of involvement in an anti-Shia terror group and attending bomb-making training courses in Pakistan.
Akram Lahori was planning to travel to Sunni majority Qeshm Island, as reported by state media. Lahori, also known as Muhammad Ajmal, was granted bail by a Pakistani anti-terrorism court in October last year, implicated in a 27-year-old murder case involving renowned poet Mohsin Naqvi.
The arrest comes as last month, Iran and Pakistan engaged in mutual strikes targeting what they termed "terrorist" groups in border regions. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted Jaish al-Adl's locations in Pakistan's Balochistan province, while Pakistan retaliated by bombing hideouts of armed Baloch separatists in Iran's Sistan-Baluchestan province. The strikes led to a rapid deterioration in diplomatic relations between Islamabad and Tehran, with both countries withdrawing ambassadors and severing official ties amid heightened rhetoric.
The LeJ is notorious for its anti-Shia stance and affiliations with groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammad and al-Qaeda. It also advocates for the destruction of Christianity, Hinduism, and Judaism. The group gained notoriety with the 1997 attack on the Iranian Centre in Multan, resulting in the deaths of an Iranian and two dozen others. Since then, LeJ has carried out numerous suicide bombings, armed assaults, and kidnappings targeting Shia communities.
It was designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the US State Department in 2001 and listed by the UN as a terror organization in 2003.
US and British forces carried out strikes against more than a dozen Houthi targets in Yemen on Saturday, the latest round of military action against the Iran-backed group attacking shipping in the region.
The United States has carried out near daily strikes against the Houthis, who control the most populous parts of Yemen and have said their attacks on shipping are in solidarity with Palestinians as Israel strikes Gaza.
The Houthis began their attacks in mid-November after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urged Muslim nations to blockade Israel. Initially they claimed to be targeting vessels bound for Israeli ports but after weeks of drone and missile attacks it appears that Houthis fire at any ship they can.
The strikes have so far failed to halt the Houthis' missile and drone attacks, which have upset global trade and raised shipping rates.
A joint statement from countries that either took part in the strikes or provided support, said the military action was against 18 Houthi targets across eight locations in Yemen including underground weapons and missile storage facilities, air defense systems, radars and a helicopter.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the strikes were meant "to further disrupt and degrade the capabilities of the Iranian-backed Houthi militia."
"We will continue to make clear to the Houthis that they will bear the consequences if they do not stop their illegal attacks, which harm Middle Eastern economies, cause environmental damage and disrupt the delivery of humanitarian aid to Yemen and other countries," Austin said.
The strikes were supported by Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands and New Zealand.
Al Masirah TV, the main television news outlet run by the Houthi movement, said on Saturday that US and UK forces carried out a series of strikes in the capital, Sanaa.
It quoted an unnamed Houthi military source as saying the renewed raids were "a miserable attempt to prevent Yemen from providing support operations to the Palestinian people in Gaza."
Earlier this week the Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on a UK-owned cargo ship and a drone assault on a US destroyer, and they targeted Israel's port and resort city of Eilat with ballistic missiles and drones.
The group's strikes are disrupting the vital Suez Canal shortcut that accounts for about 12 percent of global maritime traffic, forcing a longer, more expensive route around Africa.
No ships have been sunk nor crew killed during the Houthi campaign. However, there are concerns about the fate of the UK-registered Rubymar cargo vessel, which was struck on February 18 and its crew evacuated. The US military has said the Rubymar was carrying more than 41,000 tons of fertilizer when it was hit, which could spill into the Red Sea and cause an environmental disaster.
The European Union has launched a naval mission to the Red Sea "to restore and safeguard freedom of navigation".
The United States has a parallel coalition, Operation Prosperity Guardian, aimed at safeguarding commercial traffic in from attacks by the Houthis.