Iran International
Reports suggest that Iran's response to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran this week could involve multiple attacks by its proxies and Iran itself, possibly targeting civilians, as early as this weekend.
Retaliation is further fueled by the fact that, less than 24 hours before Haniyeh's assassination, Israel announced—and Hezbollah confirmed—the killing of Hezbollah's senior military commander, Fuad Shukr, in an Israeli airstrike on a Beirut suburb.
According to AFP, Iran and its allied armed groups are preparing coordinated actions intended to “deter Israel while avoiding full-scale war.”
On Wednesday, Iranian officials convened in Tehran with representatives from the "Axis of Resistance" — a collection of proxy forces financed and armed by Iran - to deliberate on retaliation.
A source close to the Lebanese group disclosed to AFP that two scenarios were discussed: a simultaneous response from Iran and militia groups, or a staggered reaction from each party. This source, who had been briefed on the meeting, requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the information.
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has threatened "harsh punishment" for Haniyeh's killing, which the group attributes to Israel, and has vowed revenge.
A leader of the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a coalition of pro-Iran groups, informed AFP that "Iran will lead the initial response with the participation of Iraqi, Yemeni, and Syrian factions, targeting military objectives. This will be followed by a second wave of attacks from Hezbollah."
The source further indicated that Hezbollah might target civilians to avenge the deaths of three women and two children in the strike that killed Shukr in Beirut.
CNN, citing US officials, reported that the response might include attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed proxy militias in the region. For months, these militias launched numerous attacks on US forces in the Middle East. Still, these largely subsided after the US retaliated to a drone attack that killed three US service members in Jordan in January. Officials suggest that Iran could instruct these groups to resume firing on US forces.
Israeli media outlet Ynet reported that Israelis are anticipating attacks as early as Saturday, following Haniyeh's funeral in Qatar on Friday. They are on high alert and preparing for a "broad attack" by Tehran and its proxies.
"The assumption is that a significant response could come from multiple fronts in the coming days, potentially coordinated by Iran with all its proxies: Hezbollah, the Houthis, and militias in Syria and Iraq," Ynet wrote on Thursday.
Cyber security company XPOZ, through the use of a large-scale analysis of factual evidence and data that’s collected on social networks, came to the conclusion that Iran was behind the campus protests at McGill university in Montreal.
Analysts working for the American cyber company, which monitors social media, use AI technology to unmask the networks and campaigns behind “inauthentic” users interacting on a large scale.
They dug deeper into inauthentic accounts, which could be defined as either bots or fake users managed by a foreign power, operating in a highly coordinated matter on social platforms. They said the coordination aspect is key because that’s how social media algorithms work to push a certain narrative. The analysts also used technology to investigate the content such users post.
What they found was that there was a high-percentage of inauthentic accounts primarily written in Farsi, coming from Iranians inside Iran linked to the regime and IRGC, fueling the campus protests at McGill. Analysts told Iran International they are confident based on analysis of which group inauthentic users belong to and the type of narrative they are producing over time within those groups.
XPOZ analysts, came up with their results after one month by identifying the language used in the posts, where it was coming from, and how much of it was coordinated among inauthentic accounts linking back to Iran.
Iran International is not identifying the XPOZ analysts by name for security reasons.
“The primary takeaway is that there is a massive activity, funded, coordinated and organized by a foreign government that is influencing Canadians in Canada and driving incitement to violence and real-world activity,” said one of the XPOZ analysts.
Their analysis of the alleged coordinated activity at McGill reveals 60 percent of Pro-Palestine campus protestors were not authentic online users. The data indicates the presence of coordinated Farsi-speaking accounts, suggesting a targeted campaign. By comparison, 75% of commentators critical of the encampment were authentic.
The data drew on nearly 150,000 posts on X, over 500,000 likes and more than 65,000 comments. The analysts emphasized that their data does not identify whether the Pro-Palestine protesters are aware or unaware of Iran’s alleged role and may be acting in good faith.
The analysts revealed to Iran International that the network driving the McGill protests had been promoting narratives supporting the IRGC and the government of Iran while proliferating rhetoric against Israel and US.
“When you look at something that is happening in Montreal, Canada, you expect most of the users to be writing in English or French. Or you would expect most of them to be primarily engaging in other posts in English or French. It’s natural to see other languages but up to a certain point. What we saw here were users that were primarily writing in Farsi or that their followers were writing in Farsi.”
They added the users were not Iranians living in Canada and not regular citizens in Iran but rather tied to the Islamic Republic.
“In addition to their history of what they were writing and what they were engaging with, we also see that they're highly intertwined with one another in the sense that they're following one another,” which the analysts said indicated coordination.
“They share a very abnormally high proportion of followers amongst one another,” said another XPOZ analyst.
Foreign interference and national security
XPOZ analysts said their data demonstrate that Canada is subject to the use of deceptive mass influence campaigns coordinated by foreign governments, like Iran, to target Canadian society through proxies to deepen divides and threaten national security.
In June, Canada named Iran as one of the top four countries, along with China, Russia and North Korea, that engage in extensive campaigns to compromise government and private sector computer systems.
"Foreign interference, enabled by sophisticated cyber tools, poses one of the most serious threats to Canada’s national security, economic prosperity and sovereignty, as well as our way of life," the statement read.
In its annual report released in May, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) highlighted the cyber-attacks by the Islamic Republic that target Canada.
A foreign interference report also in May concluded that Iran, China, Russia, India, Pakistan, are key threats against Canada.
Iran International’s exclusive report comes on the heels of US intelligence report that Iran is funding and emboldening anti-Israel protests in the US to sow discord.
US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said on July 9 that Iran harnessed social media to warp domestic debates and create more division. She issued an official statement warning that the Islamic Republic of Iran was boosting anti-Israel protests online.
Neil Oberman, a Canadian lawyer who recently represented students who filed an injunction against the McGill encampment, said the XPOZ data suggesting Iran’s role in the protests proves “foreign interference.”
“In Canada we do not tolerate and should not tolerate foreign countries interfering, meddling, creating disruption for the purposes of basically trying to influence young students who are the future of our country, from not being able to study, not being able to interact, and more importantly, not being able to be safe on their own campus,” he said.
Sources with XPOZ released the data to Oberman, who became the face of injunctions against the encampments in Canada.
Oberman said the students he represented were subject to aggression and hate on campus. The court had rejected his application, but he believes the outcome would have been different if he had the XPOZ documentation.
“Do I think for a moment that the courts would have known that evidence existed to establish that a foreign country with very evil intentions was attempting to influence good Canadians and Quebeckers so that they could fight with each other to have an encampment, I think the outcome might have been different, and I would even beg to say maybe McGill might have acted differently,” he added.
In July, McGill's campus security dismantled the school's encampment.
Oberman said he’s bound by lawyer-client privileges and can’t discuss litigation but hinted that he will be using the evidence for a future legal proceeding.
“Evidence that does exist will be used. The form of its usage would probably be in the form of a legal proceeding.”
For Oberman, this is not an issue of antisemitism or the Jewish and Iranian communities but rather about Canada and the safety of all Canadians.
