Iran International
Iran's Masoud Pezeshkian has two weeks to present his cabinet to a parliament dominated by hardliners and ultra-hardliners who supported his rivals in the recent presidential election.
At Pezeshkian’s endorsement ceremony Sunday, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said the selection of the cabinet is the “joint work of the administration and the parliament” and stressed that the cabinet should be formed as soon as possible.
Khamenei’s emphasis on the need to speed up the formation of the new government means two things, the ultra-hardliner lawmaker Ahmad Rastineh said Sunday: Pezeshkian should present his proposed cabinet to the parliament quickly, and while “cooperating” with the new president, the Parliament should approve those ministerial appointments that confirm with Khamenei's criteria, as quickly as possible.
Referring to reformists’ possible influence in Pezeshkian’s cabinet, Rastineh declared that the President should not consider himself aligned with a “certain political current”.
The so-called ‘Principlist’ majority of the 12th Parliament is divided into two major factions, hardliners who support the Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and ultra-hardliners who fielded Saeed Jalili in the elections.
The two groups have diverged in the past few years and the umbrella term ‘Principlist’ which once defined all conservatives as opposed to ‘reformists’ no longer defines a united front.
The conflict between Ghalibaf and Jalili's supporters on social media during the parliamentary elections earlier this year significantly escalated when Jalili refused to allow Ghalibaf, who had a better chance against Pezeshkian, to represent the 'revolutionary front' in the presidential runoff elections in July.
Pezeshkian may manage to get some support from Ghalibaf’s faction which considers Jalili a much bigger threat than the reform-oriented Pezeshkian. After Ghalibaf lost in the first round of the presidential vote, many of his supporters openly supported Pezeshkian in the runoff election to prevent Jalili's victory.
It remains to be seen how likely Ghalibaf is to cooperate with Pezeshkian and steer his faction to protect him and his cabinet from Jalili’s ‘revolutionaries’.
“Mr. Ghalibaf ought to do everything in his power as the head of the legislature to prevent the radicals in the parliament from blocking the government’s path with their insistence on radical behaviors,” Gholam-Ali Jafarzadeh-Imanabadi, a former ‘Principlist’ lawmaker, said Sunday.
Jafarzadeh-Imanabadi argued that it is time for Ghalibaf to repay the favor to the parliament’s independent faction, of which Pezeshkian was a leading figure. Without their support, Ghalibaf would not have been re-elected as speaker of the 12th Parliament in March.
There are also two smaller groups of ‘Principlists’ in the parliament consisting of moderate conservatives and conservatives. These groups consist of the supporters of former President Hassan Rouhani, former Speaker Ali Larijani, the Islamic Coalition Party, and the Association of Combatant Clerics led by presidential candidate Mostafa Pourmohammadi.
These two groups have been eliminated from centers of power by hardliners and ultra-hardliners in the past few years and many among them cast their votes for Pezeshkian in the runoff elections. Ghalibaf can also get their support in helping Pezeshkian cabinet.
‘Principlist’ lawmakers make up more than two-thirds of the Parliament’s 290 lawmakers.
There are less than 100 ‘reformists’ and independents, mainly from smaller constituencies, whom Pezeshkian can also count on to support his proposed ministers.
Of Ebrahim Raisi’s nineteen ministers, only one was rejected by a sympathetic parliament in 2021. In contrast, hardliner and conservative lawmakers refused to endorse several of the ministers proposed by Hassan Rouhani during his two presidential terms in 2013 and 2017. However, reformist Mohammad Khatami managed to secure a vote of confidence for all his ministers from a conservative-majority parliament during his first term in 1997.
These events come at a time of rising fears of a full-scale regional war, with escalating tensions between Israel and Iran's proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. This escalation coincides with a coordinated and forceful American move in Iraq.
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, one of Hamas' most prominent leaders, in Tehran was the most spectacular of such attacks. Haniyeh, who was leading the political operations of the movement while living abroad, was the second leader of an Iran-backed armed group to be killed in less than 24 hours.
Hamas accused Israel of carrying out the attack after Haniyeh attended the inauguration of the new Iranian president. The assassination comes at a critical time, coinciding with escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah and rising fears of a wider regional war.
In the same context, Israel carried out an attack in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, on Tuesday resulting in the death of Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s top military commander, accused of carrying out a deadly attack in the occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 children.
The Israeli retaliation against Fuad Shukr, the second-in-command in Hezbollah and one of Hassan Nasrallah's top advisors, known as “Hajj Mohsen,” eliminated a prominent military figure in Hezbollah, with a $5 million bounty placed on him by Washington.
He was often described as the “Qasem Soleimani of Hezbollah” due to his significant role in planning and executing Hezbollah’s military operations, making his death a significant loss for the terror group.
The latest escalation is the most serious since the clashes between Hezbollah and Israel began last October following the outbreak of the Gaza war, sparked by the Iran-backed Hamas invasion of Israel. Hezbollah has since launched over 6,400 projectiles towards Israel in support of Hamas in Gaza.
Although Israel has not commented on Haniyeh’s death, it has previously called him “a dead man walking” and amid sensitive hostage negotiations, had to agree not to assassinate him in Doha, one of his foreign bases.
Haniyeh was the point contact for the negotiations moderated by the United States, Egypt and Qatar to release 114 Israeli hostages still held in Gaza after Hamas took 250 or more captive on October 7. Questions now linger as to who will take his place.
The double assassination comes at a time when Israel faces multiple challenges on several fronts, including Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, Iran’s proxies acting in allegiance with Hamas in Gaza.
By attacking Haniyeh in Tehran, Israel aims to send a direct and clear message to the Iranian regime, led by Ali Khamenei, indicating that Israel can reach its targets whenever and wherever it wants.
Israel’s decision, seen as a move to strengthen deterrence against the Tehran axis, also included targeting Ismail Haniyeh on the day of the new Iranian president's inauguration, a carefully timed move to deliver a precise political and security message.
Simultaneously and possibly not by coincidence, the United States carried out a defensive airstrike in Iraq this week on a base south of Baghdad which resulted in the death of four and injury of four members of the Iran-backed Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces.
While the Popular Mobilization Forces did not directly accuse anyone, the United States indicated that the strike targeted militants planning drone attacks threatening US and coalition forces. Since October 7, over 200 attacks by Iranian proxies have targeted US troops across the region with multiple deaths and scores of injuries.
A spokesman for the Iraqi armed forces condemned the attack, calling it an "atrocious crime" that could undermine joint efforts to combat ISIS. These developments come at a sensitive time for Iraq, which is experiencing increased reciprocal attacks between armed factions since the war between Israel and Hamas.
With 2,500 American troops in Iraq, the US-led coalition is expected to begin withdrawing in September, with some forces possibly remaining in an advisory capacity until 2025.
The recent assassinations of prominent leaders in Hamas and Hezbollah indicate a new Israeli strategy that relies on preemptive and direct strikes to enhance deterrence and send clear messages to Tehran and its allies. This escalation occurs amid broad geopolitical shifts, with both the United States and Israel aiming to reduce Iran's influence in the Middle East.
In Iraq, the American attack on Popular Mobilization Forces reflects growing tensions between Washington and Iran's proxies, showcasing US readiness to take strong measures against threats to its forces. These strikes come at a time when Iraq is experiencing political and security turmoil, further complicating the situation and placing the Iraqi government in a difficult position between maintaining its relationship with Washington and containing internal anger from Iran-backed armed factions.
As the Middle East teeters on the brink of a broader conflict, Iran's rhetoric has reached fever pitch, with top officials and media demanding revenge.
Five sources told Reuters that a high-level meeting has been scheduled in Tehran, drawing representatives from Iran's regional proxies. These include factions from Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, signaling a united front under the "Axis of Resistance" banner.
Among the attendees will be figures from Hezbollah, the Houthis, and various Iraqi resistance groups, all gathering to deliberate on the nature and scale of the response to Haniyeh's killing.
According to the report, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior officials from the Revolutionary Guards are expected to lead the discussions.
"Iran and the resistance members will conduct a thorough assessment after the meeting in Tehran to find the best and most effective way to retaliate against the Zionist regime (Israel)," said a senior Iranian official, with direct knowledge of the meeting.
However, CNN reported that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken sent a message through Qatar asking the Islamic Republic not to retaliate for the assassination of Haniyeh.
According to the report, the United States has asked Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar, to send messages to the Islamic Republic and Hezbollah, urging de-escalation and refraining from retaliatory actions.
The conflicting reports on the cause of Haniyeh's death have further fueled the charged atmosphere. The New York Times reported that Haniyeh was killed in a bomb explosion.
According to the report, the bomb was secretly brought into the guesthouse where Haniyeh was staying almost two months earlier.
Other media outlets reported an airstrike on Haniyeh's residence. The Fars News Agency, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, had written that Haniyeh was targeted with a "projectile from the air."
Amidst this confusion, Iran's leadership has not hesitated to voice its intent to retaliate. "The Zionist regime will undoubtedly regret it," stated General Mohammad Baqeri, Chief of Staff of Iran's Armed Forces, highlighting the Iran's determination to exact a reprisal. Bagheri also mentioned that Tehran is currently considering the appropriate response to avenge the assassination of Haniyeh.
The escalation comes on the heels of another Israeli strike, which targeted a senior Hezbollah commander near Beirut, killed just hours before Haniyeh. The dual assassinations have exacerbated fears of a broader conflict encompassing Israel, Iran, and their respective allies.
Israeli officials, meanwhile, have remained tight-lipped, neither confirming nor denying involvement in Haniyeh's assassination. However, Israeli air force chief Tomer Bar reiterated Israel's readiness to defend its citizens.
"We are also strongly prepared in defense. Hundreds of aerial defense soldiers, along with air control personnel, are stationed across the country with the best systems, ready to carry out their mission," said Bar.
The funeral for Haniyeh in Tehran on Thursday, attended by significant figures from Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other Iran-funded militant groups, further underscored the deep ties between Iran and its proxy forces.
Hamas's armed wing declared that the assassination of Haniyeh would "take the battle to new dimensions and have major repercussions."
An Iraqi militia local commander stated, "Iran asked key commanders of the Iraqi resistance groups to travel to Tehran on Wednesday to attend an urgent meeting to discuss retaliation against recent Israeli strikes, including in Lebanon and Iran and the US strike in Iraq." The US had intercepted an attack en-route to Israel.
Another source from the militia indicated that these commanders went to Tehran not only to attend Haniyeh's funeral but also to participate in a "top urgent meeting" aimed at planning the next steps for retaliating against Israel and the United States.
On Thursday, Iranian President Pezeshkian also reaffirmed support for Palestine. Pezeshkian conveyed to Hamas deputy chief in Gaza, Khalil Al-Hayya, that both his government and the leader of the Islamic Republic "will not waver in their support for Palestine."
He further emphasized, "We will continue to support and back the axis of resistance with even greater determination."
The "axis of resistance," a term coined by the Islamic Republic, refers to its coalition of proxy forces in the region. This coalition includes Palestinian militant groups, the Syrian regime, the Lebanese militant organization Hezbollah, and various other factions.
Ali Akbar Ahmadian, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated to Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency, "All fronts of the resistance will take revenge for Haniyeh's blood."
Abdollah Ganji, the former editor of the IRGC-linked Javan newspaper, posted on X that the Islamic Republic has officially warned Arab countries in the region that if they allow Israel to use their airspace, they will become a "legitimate target."
Some media outlets attributed this warning to Ali Bagheri Kani, the acting foreign minister, who emphasized, "This action will undoubtedly take place. A range of measures must be implemented, and the Zionists will inevitably come to regret it."
On April 13, Iran launched over 350 missiles and drones toward Israel, claiming it was a response to Israel's alleged deadly strike on Iran's embassy compound in Damascus on April 1. However, almost all of the barrage was intercepted and shot down.
Former senior Revolutionary Guards Commander Esmail Kosari told state TV that "Iran's response to the assassination of Martyr Haniyeh will be stronger than before."
At Haniyeh's funeral, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, head of the Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs, emphasized the need for effective deterrence through proportionate actions. He remarked, "When a Hamas leader is martyred, one of the main leaders of Israel must be eliminated."
Iran's media landscape has also been vocal, with publications like Kayhan, which is closely aligned with the Supreme Leader, calling for a robust response. The newspaper suggested that Iran and its allies should consider striking American assets, implicating the United States as a complicit actor in the assassination due to its support for Israel.
"Now, with just a glance around, one can see dozens of strategic hubs and American intelligence and military centers that are easily within our reach. Ain al-Assad was one example. The base of the US Fifth Fleet on the shores of Bahrain is another example. American vessels carrying fuel and goods in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman could also be potential targets," added Kayhan.
Amid the developments, there are calls within Iran for a reassessment of security protocols. Criticism has surfaced regarding the apparent lapses that allowed such a high-profile assassination to occur on Iranian soil. Conservative voices like Jomhouri-e Eslami daily have demanded a thorough purge within the country's intelligence and security agencies to prevent future breaches and ensure accountability.
