Iran International
Amid heightened Israeli pressure on Hezbollah, Iran’s key proxy in the region, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei adopted a notably measured tone in his Saturday speech, emphasizing the importance of soft power.
“The policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran has always been to resist the unilateralism of the United States and generally the Western countries, who pursue their own excessive demands and continue their colonial policies in a new form. This will remain our policy moving forward,” Araghchi was quoted as saying by IRNA, the official government news website.
Araghchi, who was deeply involved in Iran’s nuclear talks with the West a decade ago and in 2021, was appointed foreign minister in the new government of President Masoud Pezeshkian in August. The President, during his election campaign and upon assuming office, referred to a policy of engagement with the West, initially raising hopes that Tehran might be willing to adopt a more pragmatic foreign policy.
Araghchi, condemning attacks against Tehran’s ally and proxy, the Lebanese Hezbollah this week, made it clear that the Iranian delegation will focus on a diplomatic campaign against Jerusalem.
“In this situation, it is natural that the most important topic in our meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, as well as in the sessions held by the Non-Aligned Movement, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, BRICS, ECO, and others, will be…the criminal actions of the Zionist regime, which must be confronted by the international community,” Araghchi stated. He went on to say that “It is natural that the crimes of the Zionist regime, especially those committed in the past few days, will be the main topic of these discussions.”
While the explosion of thousands of Hezbollah communication devices, which killed scores and seriously wounded hundreds of militiamen and commanders, has shocked the world, Tehran has so far refrained from issuing any specific threats against Israel. Additionally, more than 50 days after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran has not launched a military retaliatory strike, possibly indicating the government's reluctance to escalate the conflict further.
On Saturday, President Pezeshkian declared during a military parade that “Iran's defensive power and deterrence capabilities have grown to such a level that no evil force would even dare to entertain the thought of aggression against the country.” He was speaking during ceremonies on the 44th anniversary of Iraq’s invasion of Iran that led to a bloody and destructive 8-year war between the two countries.
However, his reference to Iran’s deterrence power contrasted with many incidents of bombings and sabotage since mid-2020 targeting Iran’s nuclear program and military and strategic installations, widely believed to have been launched by Israel. The latest incident was Haniyeh’s killing in Tehran while he was a high-level government guest. The incident led to debates even in government-controlled media in Tehran about serious security breaches and veiled accusations against security and intelligence organs.
In a message of condolence to Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah, Araghchi said, "As I arrive in New York to attend the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly, I consider it my Islamic and humanitarian duty to be the resounding voice of justice for the heroic people of Palestine and Lebanon against the criminal and aggressive Zionist regime."
However, Araghchi, echoing other statements by other Iranian officials, indicated a cautious approach to the issue of responding to Israel. “Regarding Lebanon's issues, it is natural that Hezbollah will make its own decisions and respond appropriately. Other matters will be addressed as the situation requires. The assassination of martyr Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran will not go unanswered.”
Ali Nikbakht, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Iran Power Plants Association, reported this summer's electricity shortage at 19 to 20 GW. He warned that if immediate action isn't taken, the deficit could reach 26 GW next year. Similar concerns were echoed by Hamidreza Salehi, Chairman of the Federation of Energy Exports and Associated Industries, and Hassan Ali Taghizadeh, Chairman of the Electricity Syndicate.
All three officials agreed that not only is it unrealistic to resolve the electricity deficit in the short term, but there is little hope of even sustaining the current level of imbalance.
Aging power plants
Nikbakht also emphasized the aging and deterioration of a significant portion of the country's power plant capacity. He pointed out that one major power plant has already halted operations for repairs, stating, “The spare parts for this plant should have been ordered two years ago, but that didn’t happen, exacerbating the electricity shortage.”
He further explained that while the total nominal capacity of Iran's power plants is over 92 GW, much of it is outdated. “Of the 15 GW nominal capacity of steam power plants, about 12 GW are over 30 years old. In the case of gas power plants, 2.7 GW have also exceeded 30 years of age,” he said.
As a result, 80% of steam power plants and 11% of gas power plants are effectively outdated. These low-efficiency thermal plants account for 43% of the country's nominal power plant capacity.
This aging infrastructure, combined with a steep drop in hydropower generation due to drought, has significantly reduced Iran's actual power production. Despite having around 93.3 GW of installed nominal capacity, the country's real power generation is only about 61 GW, meaning that 30% of Iran's power generation capacity is currently offline.
Growing electricity deficit
Iran should have increased its power production by at least 7% annually for over a decade to meet the growing demand. However, the last time this goal was achieved was in 2010. Since then, the country's electricity consumption has grown at twice the rate of its production. As a result, Iran, which had a net export of 8 terawatt-hours of electricity annually until the mid-2010s, is now facing a massive power shortage.
The issue is that Iran now faces electricity deficits year-round, not just during the summer. Since last spring, the Ministry of Energy has stopped releasing its monthly statistics. However, a report obtained by Iran International earlier this summer revealed that even in the final month of spring, the country faced a 5 GW deficit during peak nighttime hours and a 10 GW shortfall during peak daytime hours.
This deficit surged to 20 GW during this summer's peak demand and is projected to reach 26 GW by next summer. To put this into perspective, this deficit is 1.5 times the total electricity generation of Iran’s northern neighbors—Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkmenistan—all of whom export electricity to Iran.
With such a vast imbalance between supply and demand, coupled with ongoing annual growth in consumption, it’s unlikely that Iran will resolve this shortage within the next decade, even if it triples its investment in the power sector. The country needs $20 billion in investment just to cover the current electricity deficit, plus at least $4 billion annually to support the 7% growth in power production needed to meet rising demand.
The primary driver behind Iran’s increasing electricity consumption is the addition of about one million new subscribers to the grid each year, with three-quarters being residential consumers and the remainder from industry, agriculture, and commercial sectors.
Moreover, hundreds of millions of dollars are required annually for the maintenance and repair of aging power plants. Nikbakht noted that the annual maintenance cost for each power plant is approximately $3 million.
A critical concern is the government’s growing debt to private power plant owners, which has quadrupled over the past three years. By the beginning of this year, it surpassed 900 trillion rials ($1.5 billion based on the open market exchange rate or $2.1 billion at the official rate). This mounting debt makes it unlikely that the private sector will continue to invest in the power industry.
Government Deflection
Hassan Ali Taghizadeh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Electricity Syndicate, recently warned, "With the current approach, we will face a 25 GW electricity imbalance next year." He also criticized Iranian authorities for blaming the public for excessive electricity consumption, pointing out that the average household consumption in Iran is not only below the global average but nearly half of that in Europe. "Why accuse people of being wasteful? Don’t blame the public for the electricity imbalance."
Statistics reveal that the average household electricity consumption per capita in Iran is under 1,200 kilowatt-hours, compared to about 1,800 kilowatt-hours in the European Union. In countries like the United States and the Arab Gulf states, consumption is several times higher than in Iran.
Blaming the public becomes even more misplaced when considering that 13% of Iran’s electricity is lost in its outdated transmission and distribution network, which the government has neglected to modernize for two decades. This loss is equivalent to 40% of the country’s household electricity consumption, translating into a staggering $4 to $5 billion annual loss at current regional electricity prices.
Additionally, over the past decade, Iran has failed to convert its low-efficiency steam and gas power plants into combined-cycle plants, which boast a 45% efficiency rate. Currently, combined-cycle plants account for just 39% of Iran’s nominal power generation capacity, while low-efficiency steam and gas plants together still make up 43%.
Meanwhile, the share of nuclear and renewable energy in Iran’s power generation capacity remains just 1% each, with the remainder made up by hydropower plants.
The lake, which received nearly one billion cubic meters of water during the winter and spring, has now evaporated, leaving behind an environmental and public health crisis for the nearly five million residents in the surrounding areas.
This marks the second time in recent years that the lake has nearly disappeared. The latest drying occurred despite seasonal efforts to replenish its water levels. Satellite imagery shows a vast white salt crust in both the northern and southern sections of the lake, a sign of extreme evaporation.
The crisis stems from a combination of prolonged droughts, overuse of water by local communities, and poorly planned dam construction along the lake's tributaries, all worsened by the government’s handling of the situation.
Experts attribute the shrinking of Lake Urmia, which has lost nearly 95 percent of its volume over the past 20 years, to excessive and illegal groundwater extraction, as well as diverting water from the once bountiful Zarrineh Rud—one of the lake’s main sources—to irrigate apple orchards.
Earlier, reports had surfaced about a change in the lake’s color. According to Lida Shojaifar, head of the Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Department of West Azarbaijan’s Environmental Protection Agency, the shift was attributed to high temperatures, increased evaporation, and heightened activity of salt-loving bacteria. Shojaifar described the phenomenon as natural and not alarming.
However, the complete drying of Lake Urmia raises concerns about the impact on local agriculture and tourism, which has already been damaged by the lake’s decline. Additionally, dust and salt storms from the lake bed now threaten the health of millions in the region.
The lake’s water level has been in steady decline for years, hitting a historic low of less than 1,270 meters in September 2023, eight meters lower than its peak level recorded in May 1995.
Despite earlier attempts to restore the lake, Arezou Ashrafizadeh, Director of the Wetlands Protection Office, warned in June that the situation remained fragile, even after seasonal water intake. "Despite adequate water intake this spring, Lake Urmia’s condition remains unstable and fragile," Ashrafizadeh said.
The drying of the lake has also reshaped its landscape. The evaporation has caused four of the lake’s southern islands to merge, forming land bridges and disrupting the habitat of local wildlife, including the Persian gazelle and Armenian wild sheep. This new landmass poses risks to both the animals and the delicate ecological balance of the lake’s former islands.
Additionally, the 1,250-meter-long Shahid Kalantari Highway, which bisects the lake, has been cited as a factor exacerbating the lake’s drying. The highway, built across the lake, divides it into northern and southern sections, potentially disrupting its natural flow and ecosystem.
Efforts to restore the lake’s water levels have thus far failed to meet expectations. Earlier plans projected that the water level would reach 1,274.1 meters by 2026. However, its fluctuating levels over the past two decades, driven by inconsistent rainfall and the management of water resources, have affected the lake's depth and topography.
Geological studies indicate that the fluctuations could also be impacting the region’s seismic activity. Two earthquakes, both with a magnitude of six, struck near Salmas in February 2020. More recently, a series of tremors hit Khoy between 2022 and 2024, coinciding with the lake’s drying out. Researchers are investigating the possible link between the seismic events and the lake’s water level changes.
Gone was the usual fiery rhetoric or direct threats; instead, Khamenei highlighted the importance of cultural influence, diplomacy, and ideological strength, signaling a more subtle shift in Iran's regional strategy amid ongoing tensions. Despite this measured approach, he still condemned Israel, accusing it of committing "shameless crimes."
The violence in Lebanon has escalated quickly, beginning with explosions on Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. The attacks, which involved detonating pagers and walkie-talkies, are widely believed to have been orchestrated by Israel. The blasts killed scores of Hezbollah members and injured more than 3,000. On Friday, Hezbollah confirmed that senior commanders Ibrahim Aqil and Ahmed Wahbi were killed in an air strike on a residential building in the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs, which left 31 dead, including around 20 top commanders.
During his speech at the 38th Islamic Unity Conference, where the theme of unity was front and center, Supreme Leader Khamenei struck a tone of quiet frustration. He reiterated his long-standing vision: "With the formation of an Islamic Ummah, Muslims can, through their internal strength, remove the malignant cancer of the Zionist regime from Palestine and eliminate the oppressive influence, domination, and interference of the United States in the region." Yet, in the same breath, Khamenei acknowledged the challenge, admitting that "governments don't have the motivation" for unity, signaling his growing frustration with his lack of influence on many Arab governments.
"Islamic countries should completely sever their economic ties with this criminal gang. This is the least they can do, and it must be done," Khamenei said.
His remark underscored not only frustration but also Iran's growing isolation in the region. Despite repeated calls for cooperation from both Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian, their appeals seem to be falling on deaf ears, reverberating in a region where Iran's influence is increasingly sidelined by the very leaders it hopes to rally.
“Politicians, scholars, academics, scientists, influential thinkers, poets, writers, political and social analysts – these are the groups that can have an impact,” Khamenei said, emphasizing soft power.
“Now, imagine if for ten years, all the media outlets in the Muslim world consistently focused on the unity of Muslims, with articles being written, poets composing poems, analysts providing insights, professors explaining, and religious scholars issuing rulings. Without a doubt, over the course of those ten years, the situation would change drastically,” he added. “Once the nations awaken, governments will be forced to act accordingly.”
This isn’t the first time Khamenei has dialed down the rhetoric in recent months. Recently, he spoke of a "tactical retreat" as Iran continues to hold off on the revenge once promised by IRGC leaders after the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last July. Even in a speech on August 25, Khamenei shifted the tone, remarking, that the battle against the camp of the enemies (Israel and the US), doesn’t always have to be fought with guns. "One can also fight them with poetry and verse." It seems, for now, the weapons of choice may be words rather than warfare.
With the country grappling with a mounting financial and economic crisis, Tehran’s restrained approach persists, even as Israeli pressure ramps up. Instead of saber-rattling, Iran appears to be banking on patience while contemplating a breakthrough to reduce US sanctions, while not relinquishing its anti-Israeli foreign policy in the region.
