President-elect Donald Trump’s lineup of foreign policy appointments reveals a strong pro-Israel, anti-Tehran stance for his second term, which in general seems to be on a more predictable and less turbulent footing.
A government directive mandates daily electricity cuts of at least two to three hours in numerous regions and provinces. President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration has attributed the shutdown of three power plants—in Isfahan, Arak, and Karaj—to an acute natural gas shortage and pollution concerns from burning mazut (fuel oil) as a substitute. However, Ministry of Energy data reveals that the primary cause is a shortage of all fuel types, including mazut, diesel, and natural gas.
Thermal power plants in Iran account for 95% of the country’s electricity generation and require a daily supply of 280 million cubic meters of gas or an equivalent of 225 million liters of mazut and diesel.
Until two years ago, Iran experienced gas shortages primarily in winter, but now it faces an increasing gas deficit in all seasons. In spring and summer of this year, gas accounted for 86% of the fuel used in power plants, a decrease from 94% during the same period last year.
Ministry of Energy data shows that despite earlier increases this year of 50% in mazut supply and 26% in diesel supply to power plants, liquid fuel reserves dropped to 42% by early autumn. This decline is due to a 100% surge in mazut consumption and an 80% rise in diesel use at power plants since the start of the Iranian calendar year on March 21.
Iranian mazut contains 3.5% sulfur, seven times the international standard for marine fuel. The quality and sulfur content of diesel in Iran also exceed Euro 4 standards.
The Iranian Parliament Research Center reports that Iran faced a daily gas shortage of 150 million cubic meters during the spring and summer, a figure that could rise to 300 million cubic meters per day this winter.
Iran holds the world’s second-largest gas reserves after Russia and ranks as the fourth-largest producer. However, the lack of renewable energy development, extensive energy waste, particularly in gas, and the low efficiency of power plants have led the country into a gas deficit.
Meanwhile, data from BP shows that while Iran’s annual gas production growth exceeded 5% over the past decade, it has slowed to 2% in the past three years. Last year, Iran produced about 260 billion cubic meters of gas, with 12 billion cubic meters exported to Turkey and Iraq.
Iran’s mazut situation
Reports from tanker tracking companies also indicate a sharp decline in Iran's mazut exports, highlighting the surge in domestic consumption of this highly polluting fuel.
Until a few years ago, Iran was exporting an average of 400,000 barrels of mazut daily. However, this figure dropped to 220,000 barrels last year.
The main customers for Iranian mazut are China and the UAE. Calculations by Iran International, citing data from Vortexa, Kpler, and the United Against Nuclear Iran(UANI), an advocacy group, indicate that during the first 10 months of this year, Iran exported an average of 70,000 barrels of mazut daily to China and 60,000 barrels to the UAE.
In other words, Iran's mazut exports have halved compared to last year and dropped to a third of their level in 2021. Data from the Ministry of Energy shows that Iran consumed 8 billion liters of mazut in power plants last year, in addition to double this amount of diesel in power generation sector.
Iran's gas exports
Data from BP reveals that Iran exported 12 billion cubic meters of gas to Turkey and Iraq last year, consistent with official data from both Turkey and Iran. While no report on Iran’s total gas exports for the current year is yet available, official data from Turkey indicates that it imported 4.2 billion cubic meters of gas from Iran in the first eight months of this year—an increase of 10.5% compared to the same period last year.
In its budget draft for the coming year, the Iranian government has forecasted gas exports of 16 billion cubic meters, valued at $5.2 billion. If Iran were to consume this amount of gas domestically in power plants instead of exporting it, it would reduce the need for 16 billion liters of mazut and diesel—equivalent to approximately $8 billion in international market value.
In simple terms, redirecting exportable gas to domestic power plants could reduce pollution and save Iran an additional $3 billion. However, Iran continues to prioritize gas exports, likely to sustain Iraq and Turkey's dependency or to secure its export markets. Recently, Iran also filed a lawsuit against Pakistan in the International Court of Justice over delayed gas imports.
According to an existing contract, Pakistan was to begin purchasing 7 billion cubic meters of Iranian gas annually starting in 2015. However, it claims that concerns over U.S. sanctions have prevented it from moving forward with the imports.
On Monday, Trump announced Representative Elise Stefanik of New York is to become United Nations ambassador, Representative Mike Waltz of Florida will take over as national security advisor, and it is expected that Senator Marco Rubio of Florida will become secretary of State.
Speaking to Iran International, Richard Pater, Israel director of the think tank, The Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre (BICOM), said it was good news for Israel.
“The initial appointments and the early anticipation around the second Trump administration bode well and signal good news for US allies in the region.
“From a security perspective they will build on regional alliances to defend against malign Iranian aggression. Furthermore, there is renewed hope that these alliances can be solidified and that the Abraham Accords can be expanded.”
Stefanik has made no secret of her stance on Iran. In May, addressing the Israeli parliament, she said: “The US is ready for a return to President Trump’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran.”
On Saturday, she reiterated her Iran stance, slamming the Biden administration’s approach which over the last three years has seen Iran earn record amounts of oil revenue in the face of sanctions, and successfully earned billions in what human rights groups call "hostage taking."
Last year, five US citizens were released from prison in Iran for $6bn in released frozen funds, just before Hamas, Iran's ally, attacked Israel on October 7, 2023.
“For too long, our enemies have been emboldened by the weakness of the Biden-Harris Administration,” Stefanik wrote on Saturday on X.
Signaling a strong approach to the Palestinian topic, she also wrote on Sunday that her target would encompass cracking down on the Palestinian leadership alongside the Gaza war.
“The Biden-Harris Administration knows that the Palestinian Authority is continuing their “pay-to-slay” policies and lining the pockets of terrorists who kill Israelis,” she wrote, the PA offering money to those who kill Israelis, and pay their families if they are killed in the line of ‘jihad’ or are imprisoned.
“Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are choosing to ignore the law and waiving mandatory terrorism sanctions on the Palestinian government. Thankfully the Biden-Harris Administration’s rewarding of terrorists at the expense of our great ally Israel is coming to an end,” she wrote on Sunday.
Khaled Abu Toameh, an analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, told Iran International that while the debate about the meddling of Iran in Palestinian affairs troubles the Palestinian leadership, especially in the West Bank, it remains a taboo topic on the streets. Iran supports not only Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad which are both in Gaza and the West Bank, but also multiple battalions in the West Bank.
“Palestinians don’t openly talk about Iran, because you’ll be seen as a traitor and against the resistance,” he told Iran International.
“Palestinian officials are very worried about what Iran does in terms of supporting terror in the West Bank and Gaza, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the battalions in the West Bank, but when you ask them to speak publicly about it they don’t want to.”
In addition to the war in Gaza, sparked by the October 7 Hamas attacks, the West Bank is fraught with conflict between Iran-backed groups and the Israeli military.
“I’m sure the Palestinian leadership are looking at Trump to resolve this, knowing that these groups are only serving Iran’s agenda, but on the street, you don’t hear this debate,” he added.
Mike Waltz has been a vocal critic of the Islamic Republic, condemning the Biden administration for creating an environment where Iran faces little consequence for its aggressive actions abroad, including attempts by its agents to target Donald Trump and former aides. Last year, the US labeled Iran the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism.
Waltz told Fox News last Thursday that Trump’s return means “maximum pressure” for the Islamic Republic, and that he poses an “existential threat” to the ruling of supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.
“Why has Iran been trying to kill President Trump? Because they think they can get away with it,” he wrote on X last Thursday. “The Biden administration’s weakness over the last 4 years has emboldened our adversaries THAT MUCH. We need strong assurances from Biden RIGHT NOW to deter these Iranian threats AND he needs to provide military security to protect President Trump. This cannot wait.”
A ceasefire in Lebanon forcing Hezbollah to make concessions, would be in Iran’s interest, says Moty Cristal, a former Israeli negotiator. "Time is working against Iran because of the risk of attack so if I was Iran I would be looking to finalise a deal before Trump takes office. Iran is much weaker and more vulnerable right now, it has less air defences since the Israel attack and politically it’s much less credible," he told Iran International.
If before Trump comes, there is a deal with Hezbollah, the hawkish approach will not be the same. "It’s much harder to restart an aggressive approach if that’s in place. If there is no ceasefire in Lebanon until January, that opens more military options for Israel and the US against Iran and Hezbollah," he added.
If a ceasefire is put in place, Trump can execute the hawkish mindset and policies through additional sanctions or through something that will similarly weaken Iran, bringing Saudi Arabia into the 2020 Trump-brokered Abraham Accords with Israel which saw relations normalized with countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
"From Israel’s perspective, it might be better negotiation wise to wait," Cristal added. "The US negotiators are talking now about a stronger UN Resolution 1701, but if we get to February, Israel and the region might even get Resolution 1559 which is a complete disarmament of Hezbollah, not only pushing them north. That’s much better for Israel and the region."
Resolution 1701 from 2006 required Hezbollah and armed militias in southern Lebanon to retreat behind specified lines, in addition to disarming. Neither of which has since happened.
