China oil sale dependence puts Iran in 'colonial trap', official frets
Flags of Iran and China on a mast in Beijing
Over nine out of every ten barrels of oil Iran exports are sold to China and often at steep discounts, a senior Iranian trade official said, adding that the dependence risks captivity in “colonial trap”.
The remarks were rare criticism by Iranian officialdom of the budding cooperation between a deeply isolated Islamic Republic and nuclear-armed economic powerhouse China.
Sanctions have left Tehran heavily dependent on China, the world's top oil importer, forcing it to navigate costly logistical hurdles to evade US-led restrictions.
“These sanctions have trapped us in a nineteenth century colonial trap, leaving the government no choice but to manage the economy at significantly higher costs than normal,” said Hojatollah Mirzaei, head of the Research Center at the Iran Chamber of Commerce.
Around 92 percent of Iranian oil goes to China, often at discounts at around 30 percent, according to Mirzaei, who bemoaned the fact that his country has little say over the transactions.
“China dictates how payments are made,” he said. “They might say, ‘use this money to buy electric buses at the price we set.’ Then Tehran’s municipality proudly announces, ‘We brought you electric buses.’”
He underlined the economic strains during a budget review session on Wednesday.
“More than half the value of each barrel is consumed in circumventing sanctions,” Mirzaei said, in apparent reference to the added expense of shipping and insuring the covert oil exports.
China has continued to purchase Iranian oil, despite US sanctions. The oil is transferred using "ghost fleets", vessels with switched off transponders and concealed ownership.
The 14-month war between Israel and Hezbollah not only failed to achieve Hezbollah's stated objectives but also dealt a significant blow to the group and its primary backer, the Islamic Republic of Iran.
While Israel suffered its share of losses—including dozens of soldiers killed, tens of thousands displaced in the north, and attacks reaching deep into its territory—the overall damage inflicted on Hezbollah and its supporters in Tehran was far more severe, impacting them militarily and politically.
Here are eight key Hezbollah (and Iran) setbacks:
1. Failure to secure a Gaza ceasefire
Hezbollah launched this war with the aim of ending Israeli attacks on Hamas and achieving a ceasefire in Gaza. No such ceasefire materialised after 14 months of conflict.
2. Destruction of military infrastructure
Israeli airstrikes inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah's military infrastructure, destroying bases, ammunition depots, equipment, fortifications, and tunnels. These losses have significantly weakened the group's operational capacity.
3. Loss of senior commanders
Many of Hezbollah's top military leaders, including military wing commander Fuad Shukr, his deputy Ibrahim Aqil and southern front commander Ali Karaki were killed during the war. This marks the heaviest loss of senior leadership in Hezbollah's history.
4. Assassination of political leaders
The deaths of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s secretary-general for over 30 years, along with his deputy Hashem Safieddine and political council member Nabil Qaouk, have dealt a blow that the remaining structure of the group may find hard to mend.
5. Withdrawal from Israeli border
Under the ceasefire terms, Hezbollah is required to retreat to positions beyond the Litani River, approximately 25 kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon border. This withdrawal diminishes Hezbollah’s threat to northern Israel, with Israel warning of severe military retaliation should Hezbollah attempt to return.
6. Disruption of arms supply
Israeli strikes on key crossings between Syria and Lebanon have disrupted Hezbollah’s supply of arms. Israeli officials have vowed to enforce the ceasefire by preventing Hezbollah’s rearmament. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, mindful of the fate of Nasrallah and other leaders, appears to take these warnings seriously, further limiting Hezbollah's logistical support.
7. Potential erosion of power in Lebanon
It's too early to gauge but Hezbollah’s political stature could prove to have been impacted by the losses mentioned above. The group has called his 14-months campaign a victory. It's unclear if the public in Lebanon agree with that assessment.
8. Iran's weakened regional Influence
The war’s fallout extends beyond Hezbollah, weakening the broader Axis of Resistance led by Iran. Hezbollah, once Iran's strongest proxy, is not what it was 14 months ago. Hamas has also suffered militarily, with key leaders and commanders killed.
Symbolic perhaps, but the destruction of the Iran Garden in southern Lebanon with its likeness of Qassem Soleimani overlooking Israel highlighted the declining influence and prestige of Iran in the region.
The murder of Israeli Rabbi Zvi Kogan in Dubai over the weekend, if linked to Iran, could herald a new front in the Islamic Republic's multi-faceted war with Israel.
That arena is not as well defined as the Mideast war zones in which Israel has dealt punishing blows to Iran-backed adversaries. It involves Israelis abroad coming within Iranian crosshairs as retribution for Israel’s airstrikes on Iran late last month.
No evidence yet links Iran to Kogan’s death and Tehran has denied any involvement.
The possible expansion of plots targeting Israelis beyond Israel's borders may be born out of Iranian weakness, according to Beni Sabti, an Israeli of Iranian origin who is a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).
“Iran cannot deal with Israel in a direct fight and war. Hezbollah and Hamas are not as strong as Iran wants them to be, so (Iran) opened an eighth round again, but from a place of weakness, not a place of strength,” Sabti told Iran International from Tel Aviv.
Israeli officials have said they are on the receiving end of attacks on seven fronts since the October 7 attacks launched by Hamas: Gaza, the occupied West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran.
Far-flung targets
The most recent alleged Iranian attacks on Israelis were uncovered in Thailand and Sri Lanka.
In October, Iran International learned from a police source in Colombo that local authorities had foiled an Iran-linked plan to kill Israelis vacationing in Sri Lanka. Recently unsealed US Justice Department criminal complaints corroborated the plot.
A month later, Thai police warned of an attack aimed at Israeli citizens planned for a November 15 Full Moon party on a popular vacation Island.
There have been other alleged plots thwarted by domestic and Israeli intelligence agencies in Turkey, Azerbaijan, South Africa, Kenya and Western Europe.
The targeting of Jews outside of Israel is not new, with the deadliest coming in the form of the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.
85 people were killed and hundreds injured in an attack Argentinian prosecutors said was launched by Lebanon's Hezbollah at the instigation of Iran’s top leadership.
Arash Azizi, an Iranian journalist and author of What Iranians Want: Women, Life, Freedom, said Rabbi Kogan's murder fits with Iran’s modus operandi.
“The Iranian regime in the last decade or so has tried to kill Israeli citizens wherever it could find them. And it's usually failed in this attempt,” he said.
Abraham Accords
The United Arab Emirates may be a symbolic venue to strike because it represents of hub of people from the Middle East and has a growing Jewish community after formal relations were established with Israel following the Abraham Accords.
Kogan was an emissary to Abu Dhabi’s Chabad chapter and ran a kosher grocery store in Dubai.
With the weakening of Hamas and Hezbollah, Iranian attacks beyond the Jewish state may be on the rise.
Foreign lands may provide plausible deniability in order for Iran to avoid direct Israeli reprisals, said Jason Brodsky, policy director of Washington DC-based United Against Nuclear Iran.
“There has been an uptick ... Iran feels that it can't afford to get involved in a more direct armed conflict with Israel at a time when Israel sounds to be more risk ready than usual against the Iranian regime when the Biden administration is on its way out and has virtually no leverage anymore over Israel and the incoming Trump administration is unpredictable,” he said.
The cell responsible for Kogan's killing reportedly operated from Uzbekistan. 3 Uzbek nationals were arrested in the killing of an Israeli-Moldovan rabbi in the UAE.
While Brodsky sees the signs of Iran being behind Kogan’s killing, he cautioned that there may be a link to Islamic State, which has been heavily recruiting in Central Asia in recent years.
Iran’s parliament is due to announce next month its Hijab and Chastity Law which adds new fines for violating the theocracy's mandatory hijab rules, speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Wednesday.
The parliament plans to formally refer the law on December 13 to President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is legally required to sign and implement it within five days.
The legislation, passed by parliament in September 2022 and approved by Iran's Guardian Council in late September this year, has faced delays as authorities weighed public backlash.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a hardliner and a former senior Revolutionary Guards commander, said enforcement of the law will avoid direct confrontation with women - a controversial practice which has stoked mass protests.
"If an act of unveiling occurs, a text message will first be sent as a warning, followed by a second warning. Although the fine for the first offense is registered, it is not enforced initially. However, if the offense is repeated, the second fine will be applied," he added.
The law introduces significant fines, starting at 30 million rials (approximately $45) for a first violation, with repeat offenders facing fines of up to 240 million rials (around $350). The penalties, enforced through automated systems, represent a burden in a country where average monthly salaries range between $170 and $200.
The timing of the law's formal announcement was adjusted, Ghalibaf said, to account for security considerations tied to the anniversary of protests following the death of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, in morality police custody in 2022.
The months of mass demonstrations which followed saw many women publicly flout the compulsory Islamic dress code.
Ghalibaf in his remarks on Wednesday criticized the failure of most institutions to enforce previous hijab-related laws, saying that only the police had fulfilled their duties, albeit with occasional shortcomings.
However, questions linger about the infrastructure needed for implementation. Advanced equipment, such as surveillance cameras, remains limited. Ghalibaf acknowledged the gaps but added that measures are underway to ensure enforcement.
Public resistance and government control
The legislation faces strong public resistance, particularly since the Woman, Life, Freedom movement which lingers following Amini’s death.
Many women openly defy the hijab mandate, despite government crackdowns that have included the closure of businesses and impounding of vehicles linked to hijab violations.
Official reports indicate that at least 3,500 vehicles have been confiscated due to passengers violating hijab laws. Despite these crackdowns, many women continue to resist, with acts of civil disobedience such as public unveiling, sharing photos unveiled on social media and participating in protests.
This defiance highlights the pushback against what many perceive as a symbol of oppression, as widespread opposition to official inroads on women's rights and personal freedoms in the country festers.
Screenshot of the video showing Ahoo Daryaei disrobing at Tehran's Science and Research branch of Azad University on November 2, 2024.
On November 2, after reportedly being confronted and harassed by Basij paramilitary forces over her attire, she protested by removing her clothes and sitting partially undressed in the university courtyard.
Following her protest, Daryaie was detained by Iranian authorities, leading to concerns about her whereabouts and treatment. Reports indicate she may have been held in a psychiatric facility, raising international alarm over her condition.
Her action has drawn global attention, with human rights organizations calling for her immediate release.
Daryaie's protest occurred two years after the death of Mahsa Amini, which had previously sparked nationwide demonstrations against Iran's strict dress code laws.
“Iranian authorities are waging a war on women to punish defiance of forced veiling in the wake of the Woman Life Freedom uprising.”
The organization has called on Iranian authorities to end the punishment of women and girls for exercising their rights to bodily autonomy, freedom of expression, and freedom of religion. Amnesty has urged the immediate repeal of all mandatory hijab laws and regulations and demanded the dissolution of security forces tasked with enforcing these laws.
An Iranian court sentenced three Kurdish porters to death for smuggling in an Israeli robot weapon which killed a top nuclear scientist, with information obtained by Iran International indicating the cases relied on confessions extracted under torture.
The senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps official was killed by a vehicle-mounted robotic gun, in a complex operation likely carried out by Tehran's arch-nemesis Israel.
Iran’s judiciary announced last week the sentencing of three cross-border porters, called Kolbars in Kurdish, to death for unwittingly bringing in components of the weapon into Iran from neighboring Iraq.
The men were identified earlier this month as Edris Aali, Azad Shojaei, and Rasul Ahmad Mohammad, the latter being a Sulaymaniyah resident in Iraqi Kurdistan.
In July 2023, after initial trials in Fakhrizadeh’s case, Iranian security forces arrested the three in Sardasht. One of them, Aali, spent eight months in detention before being moved to Urmia Central Prison.
Shojaei confessed to smuggling weapon parts under torture, Iran International has learned. Mohammad, the third accused, was apprehended after investigators found his number on Aali’s phone.
Two sources in Sardasht in Western Iran, and a contact close to the families told Iran International that two other porters, Rahman Qanjeh and Khaled Elyasi, were detained one month after Fakhrizadeh’s assassination in November 2020.
Kurdish porters Azad Shojaei (right) Edris Aali (left)
Qanjeh, a father of three who smuggled alcohol for his livelihood, and Elyasi, a porter between Iraqi Kurdistan and Iran, were accused of unknowingly transporting robotic weapon components.
Both men later confessed under duress, information obtained by Iran International shows, leading to an 8-year prison sentence.
He described intelligence operations that tracked suspects through Tehran, Arak, Hamedan, and Sanandaj before losing their trail in Saqqez.
"However, the case of (Mohsen) Fakhrizadeh was different. Everyone was identified. Nevertheless, we faced a vigilant enemy who, typically, would flee just half an hour before we could reach them,” added Alavi.
That admission appears to contradict the fresh death sentences related to the case for the Kurdish porters.
The November 2020 assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh near Tehran initially appeared to be an armed ambush. However, it was later revealed that he was killed by a remote-controlled machine gun, smuggled into Iran in parts and assembled on-site. Israeli intelligence allegedly deployed artificial intelligence and facial recognition to execute the attack, which lasted just minutes.
In the operation's aftermath, Iranian authorities detained 20 individuals in Baneh near the Iraqi border, even showcasing photos of a suspected insider from Fakhrizadeh’s security team. Nevertheless, the intelligence minister’s admission of failure in apprehending the primary culprits has drawn criticism.
Activists accuse Tehran of scapegoating porters through forced confessions and harsh sentences to deflect attention from their intelligence failures.
Protests are intensifying across Iran as workers demand better wages and improved working conditions amidst the country’s financial crisis and energy shortages.
On Tuesday, refinery workers at the South Pars Gas Complex in Asaluyeh, a nerve center for Iran's natural gas production on the Persian Gulf, gathered to address grievances tied to delayed wage payments and unsatisfactory economic conditions.
Simultaneously, retired educators rallied outside the presidential office in Tehran, continuing demonstrations that have become frequent in recent months. Protesters voiced their frustrations, with banners highlighting the disparity between Iran’s resource wealth and their economic hardships.
They chanted slogans including, "Iran, a land of wealth, what has become of you?" as around one third of Iranians now live below the poverty line.
The oil and gas sector has increasingly replaced regular employees with contract workers, exposing them to precarious conditions and inadequate wages. Workers not only seek immediate improvements in pay but are also advocating for better dormitory accommodation and workplace safety measures.
"Tuesday's protests hold significant importance as workers from 12 refineries within the Pars Gas Complex united, demonstrating a powerful display of solidarity against the authorities," Sattar Rahmani, a workers' activist, told Iran International TV on Tuesday.
"While permanent employees struggle with minimal facilities, contractors face even harsher conditions, grappling with uncertainty about their future employment," he added. "The lack of a dependable and robust union to advocate for their rights exacerbates their plight, leaving them vulnerable and under immense pressure."
Nurses and healthcare workers have also been staging protests, including a large-scale strike in August involving around 50 cities and 70 hospitals. Their demands include higher wages, updated nursing tariffs, overtime pay, and the fulfillment of welfare benefits. Despite their consistent efforts, their grievances remain largely unaddressed due to the government’s significant budget deficit, estimated to exceed 50%. Many Iranian workers survive on monthly incomes of approximately $200, not even meeting the daily cost of living.
Iran has seen a surge in labor protests, with 428 recorded between April 2023 and April 2024, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). Workers are grappling with issues such as delayed wage payments, low salaries, arbitrary layoffs, and privatization’s adverse effects.
Adding to these challenges, Iran is facing a severe energy crisis. This summer, the country endured power outages that halved industrial electricity supplies and caused widespread blackouts. Now, warnings of a severe gas shortage this winter have raised alarms. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf urged immediate measures to mitigate the crisis during a review of seasonal power and fuel shortages.
Iran’s natural gas production growth has slowed significantly, mainly due to the aging South Pars gas field, responsible for 75% of the country’s output. Natural declines, coupled with sanctions restricting access to advanced technology, have exacerbated the situation. The production growth rate over the past three years is now a third of the pace seen in the previous decade.