Iran struggles to address significant setbacks faced by its Syrian ally
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
The Iranian foreign minister, reaffirming Tehran's unwavering support for the Syrian military, left Tehran for Damascus on Sunday as opposition forces intensify their offensive against Bashar al-Assad's troops in Syria.
Iran's minister of education has said that approximately 750,000 students in the country are not continuing their education, though he distanced the issue from systemic failures within the education sector.
Speaking on Saturday, Alireza Kazemi stated that the widespread school dropout rates are largely driven by familial, economic, and social factors, rather than structural shortcomings within the Ministry of Education.
Inflation in Iran has been hovering around 40% for the past five years, impoverishing about one-third of the population. As families find themselves under tremendous financial pressure, they are unable to afford expenses and many children go to work at menial jobs.
Kazemi reported that about 150,000 of these dropouts are from the early primary education level, while the remaining students come from both lower and upper secondary levels.
“The dropout issue is more complex than a lack of school infrastructure. It involves broader socioeconomic factors that extend beyond the ministry’s direct control,” he added.
This statement follows recent comments by Ali Rabiei, advisor on social affairs to President Masoud Pezeshkian, who reported on Thursday that 170,000 children were not attending school at the primary level, with dropout rates increasing sharply after elementary school.
Rabiei’s comments highlight a worrying trend of educational disengagement at a young age, particularly in rural and economically disadvantaged regions.
Kazemi, however, countered statements that the Iranian education system is underfunded or under-resourced.
Iran's education system faces numerous systemic challenges, including outdated curricula, overcrowded classrooms, and underfunded schools, all of which hinder the quality of learning. Teachers often work in difficult conditions with limited resources, struggling to address the diverse needs of students.
The lack of adequate infrastructure, particularly in rural areas, exacerbates these issues, making it harder for students to access quality education.
The minister also pointed to the challenges faced by secondary-level students, many of whom, Kazemi claimed, are seeking employment or vocational training opportunities.
He also identified cultural and gender barriers, particularly for rural girls who are prevented from attending mixed-gender schools.
“There are sociocultural factors at play,” he added, suggesting that these barriers to education are a significant driver of the dropout crisis.
Criticism of the ministry’s handling of the dropout issue has grown in recent months. Farshad Ebrahimpour, a member of the Education Committee in Parliament, said on October 21 that around two million students had failed to register for school this year, largely due to economic constraints faced by families.
Kazemi also dismissed the notion that there is a shortage of schools, teachers, or educational resources, instead arguing that the issue stems from external pressures on families, not the system's capacity to deliver education.
In a provocative response to critics, Kazemi suggested that those questioning the education system could ask children seen working at Tehran’s intersections why they aren’t in school.
A student in rural Iran
"The issue is not one of access," he said. "It is about the choices made by families and communities in the face of economic hardship."
Iran's education system is further undermined by the economic struggles of teachers, whose salaries have not kept pace with inflation, leading to widespread dissatisfaction.
Teachers in Iran face financial hardship, as they earn less than $200 a month. This economic pressure has sparked a series of protests in recent years, with educators demanding better pay, improved working conditions, and greater investment in the education sector.
Despite these protests, the government's response has been largely dismissive, contributing to a sense of neglect and disillusionment among teachers. The lack of attention to their demands has not only affected teachers’ morale but also impacted the quality of education, as many educators seek additional work to make ends meet, diverting their focus from their primary responsibility of teaching.
Data provided by Iranian media in September showed that nearly 790,000 students were out of school this year.
In a separate report, Mohammad Molavi, Deputy Chairman of the Education Committee in parliament, said in July that 911,000 students were not attending school, with 400,000 of them at the primary education level.
Molavi also highlighted that financial difficulties were a major factor behind the dropouts, with 279,000 students leaving school due to their families' inability to cover education-related costs.
As the debate over the country's educational crisis continues, the broader socioeconomic challenges does not mean that parents are opposed to education but they are just poor.
The number of HIV infections in Iran contracted via sexual intercourse has more than doubled according to the country's top research body in the field, highlighting the theocracy's strict policy toward contraception.
“HIV transmission through sexual contact has increased, with 28 percent of the 24,760 individuals who tested positive contracting the virus this way," Ladan Abbassian, the head of the country’s AIDS Research Center told IRGC-affiliated Tasnim on Saturday, without specifying a time period.
"This percentage rose to 65 percent in the first six months (of the Iranian calendar starting in mid-March 2024), indicating a shift in infection patterns.”
Women made up 19 percent of the total who tested positive for HIV, a figure that increased to 32 percent from March to August 2024. This shift marks a significant change in transmission patterns, which were previously dominated by men, Abbasian added.
Nearly three-quarters of those diagnosed with HIV are aged 20 to 45. “This age group should be the primary target for awareness and diagnostic efforts,” she said.
Drug users make up 53 percent of HIV cases, with 10 percent of those diagnosed in the first half of this year reporting injection drug use.
Experts have warned that government-imposed restrictions on contraceptive methods and the discontinuing of free distribution of contraceptives in some health centers could lead to a rise in HIV infections.
In 2021, Masoud Mardani, a member of the National HIV/Aids committee and professor at Shahid Beheshti medical university criticized these policies, saying that restrictions on contraceptive use to boost population growth not only risk unintended pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections but could also trigger a wave of HIV cases due to limited access to preventative tools.
In 2014 Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei announced that Iran should aim to increase the population – which is now around 85 million – to 150 million by 2050.
Despite officials’ efforts to implement directives, the population growth strategy has failed, with many attributing this to Iran’s dire economic conditions, as birth rates continue to fall and the population is projected to halve by the end of the century.
The rise in HIV cases among women and young adults in Iran reflects shifting transmission patterns and may underscore the need for stronger prevention strategies and better access to care to curb the virus's spread.
Syrian rebels stormed the Iranian consulate in Aleppo following their swift capture of Syria's second largest city, Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed on Saturday, after videos on social media showed armed fighters inside the building.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, issued a statement strongly condemning the intrusion at the consulate, emphasizing that "any violation of diplomatic premises by any individual, group, or government is unacceptable under the 1963 Vienna Convention on Consular Relations."
He said the Consul General and all members of the Iranian consulate in Aleppo are safe and unharmed.
Shortly after the rebels stormed the Iranian consulate, Iran's foreign ministry announced that Abbas Araghchi, the country's top diplomat, will be visiting Damascus on Sunday and Ankara on Monday.
Turkey is known as a key supporter of Syrian rebels who have captured Aleppo over the past few days, and had given a green light to the offensive, opposition sources in touch with Turkish intelligence told Reuters.
Araghchi also had a phone call with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on Saturday, during which they expressed their "decisive support for Syria's national sovereignty and territorial integrity and for the country's government and army" in countering the armed rebels, according to Tehran's readout of the call.
The capture of Aleppo by Syrian opposition forces, including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has significantly impacted Iranian-backed troops and raised concerns about Tehran's long-term regional strategy.
Iranian officials have downplayed Aleppo's fall to anti-Assad forces, framing the loss as a minor setback while doubling down on their support for Bashar al-Assad.
However, Kayhan newspaper which is close to Ali Khamenei's office suggested on Saturday that several Iranian forces have been killed over the past days in Aleppo.
"In the past couple of days, during the war in Syria and Aleppo, several Iranians have been martyred. Therefore, the primary and ultimate target of this new conflict is Iran," Kayhan wrote in its article.
Tehran has not yet confirmed the death of any Iranians in Aleppo, except Kioumars Pourhashemi, a senior commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) who was killed in Aleppo during an attack by Islamist forces opposed to the Syrian government.
The fall of Aleppo comes after years of Iranian support for Assad’s military, including financial aid, weapons, and personnel from the IRGC and allied militias such as Hezbollah. These forces have propped up the Syrian regime in its efforts to reclaim territory since the civil war began in 2011. However, the latest rebel offensive has demonstrated the limits of Tehran’s capabilities that have weakened in recent months because of relentless Israel attacks against Hezbollah.
Iran plans to continue its direct strikes against Israel, the spokesperson for Parliament's National Security Commission said on Saturday amid conflicting statements from Tehran officials about their strategic direction.
"Iran will undoubtedly proceed with Operation 'True Promise 3,' although the precise timing remains uncertain," lawmaker Ebrahim Rezaei said.
The operation, part of Tehran’s “True Promise” campaign, follows earlier missile and drone strikes in April and October. However, on Friday, the deputy coordinator of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards suggested a shift toward proxy warfare, reflecting the challenges Tehran faces after significant losses suffered by its allies.
Iran’s proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, have experienced substantial setbacks over the past year. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, along with several senior commanders, was killed in a September Israeli strike in Beirut. Israeli sources estimate that around 3,000 Hezbollah operatives have been killed since October 2023, while Reuters places the number closer to 4,000. Hamas has also faced severe losses in Gaza, with Israel pitting the number at over 17,000 fighters killed in the past year.
Rezaei's call for more direct attacks against Israel comes as Syrian rebels launch an unexpected offensive this week against forces loyal to Iran's ally, Bashar al-Assad, swiftly capturing Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city.
Other Iranian officials have accused Israel of being behind the rebel offensive. Tehran has spent upwards of $50 billion during the Syrian civil war since 2011 and has suffered an unknown number of casualties, both in the ranks of its IRGC officers and recruited Afghan and other militiamen.
On Wednesday, a 60-day ceasefire brokered by the United States and France began, temporarily halting the 14-month conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. During this time, Hezbollah launched more than 17,000 projectiles at Israel in support of Hamas’s October 2023 invasion.
Rezaei also addressed the possibility of negotiations with the United States, firmly rejecting the idea under current circumstances. "Regarding negotiations with the United States, it must be emphasized that all those who have approached the field of foreign policy with rationality and pragmatism, free from emotional bias, concur that engaging in talks with the United States under the current circumstances is not in the nation's best interest," he said.
Separately, Iran has reportedly signaled to European diplomats that it will not take unilateral steps to modify its nuclear program ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s return, according to a Saturday tweet by journalist Laurence Norman. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that the incoming Trump administration plans to revive the “maximum pressure” campaign, aiming to curtail Iran's economic capacity to fund armed groups and adversarial activities.
Iranian officials have downplayed the capture of Aleppo by Syrian opposition forces, framing the loss as a minor setback while doubling down on their support for Bashar al-Assad.
The swift capture of Syria’s second-largest city by opposition groups, including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has dealt a blow to Iranian-backed forces and raised questions about Tehran’s long-term strategy in the region.
Commander Hossein Daghighi, an advisor to the IRGC, vowed retaliation, saying, "The enemy is incapable of taking any effective action, as the resistance networks have been systematically organized.”
His remarks coincided with reports by opposition forces indicating that Assad's forces and his allies have been in retreat from their position around Aleppo.
“Their attempts to meddle in Syria will result in their hand being decisively severed, leaving a mark on history that will not be forgotten," Daghighi said on Saturday.
Another Iranian official commented, “The enemy has exploited the ceasefire conditions in Lebanon and seeks to plunge Syria into chaos.”
“I assure you that the enemies will fail as they have in the past," Iraj Masjedi, Deputy Coordinator of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard, said on Saturday.
Islamic Republic officials use the term "enemy" to refer to Israel or the United States.
Iranian state media also echoed this defiance, warning of repercussions for what they called a sedition. Despite such declarations, the rapid collapse of pro-Assad forces in Aleppo marks a challenge for Iran's Islamic government.
The fall of Aleppo comes after years of Iranian support for Assad’s military, including financial aid, weapons, and personnel from the IRGC and allied militias such as Hezbollah. These forces have propped up the Syrian regime in its efforts to reclaim territory since the civil war began in 2011. However, the latest rebel offensive has demonstrated the limits of Tehran’s capabilities that have weakened in recent months because of relentless Israel attacks against Hezbollah.
Opposition forces have exploited weaknesses in Assad’s overstretched troops, many of whom rely on Iranian support. Mustafa Abdul Jaber, a commander in the Jaish al-Izza opposition brigade in Syria, told Reuters that Iran’s focus on other fronts, including Gaza and Lebanon, has left gaps in its ability to defend Assad’s forces in Aleppo.
However, Iranian state media have also sought to downplay the implications of Aleppo’s loss, portraying it as part of a broader Western and Israeli plot to destabilize the region.
The Kayhan newspaper accused the US and its allies of reviving “takfiri terrorists” to pressure Iran to resume negotiations with the West over its nuclear dossier and disrupt its regional influence.
Rebels led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham drive on a motorbike in al-Rashideen, Aleppo province, Syria November 29, 2024.
It claimed the goal was to sever vital communication links between Iran and its allies in Lebanon and Gaza.
"The Resistance Axes are the arms of Iran, our allies, and our friends. An attack on them is an attack on our capabilities. Over the past couple of days, during the war in Syria and Aleppo, several Iranians have been martyred. Therefore, the ultimate and primary target of this new war and the 'Aleppo sedition' is Iran."
Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, had earlier condemned the rebel offensive as a violation of Syria’s sovereignty.
“According to the existing agreements among the three guarantor countries of the Astana Process (Iran, Turkey, and Russia), the outskirts of Aleppo and Idlib are considered de-escalation zones. Terrorist groups' attacks on these areas constitute a blatant violation of the Astana Process agreements and put the positive achievements of this process at serious risk,” said Baghaei on Thursday.
However, these statements fail to mask the broader setbacks Tehran is facing. The death of senior Iranian IRGC commander General Kioumars Pourhashemi during the Aleppo clashes underscores the high costs of Iran’s involvement in Syria.
Rouydad 24, a moderate Iranian news website, reported that the resurgence of Syria's civil war is linked to recent developments in Gaza and Lebanon.
It that from the perspective of the attackers and their strategists, the ceasefire in Lebanon and Hezbollah's commitment to the agreement, "Hamas's isolation in its uneven war with Israel," and Russia's preoccupation with the war in Ukraine have created an opportunity to corner Bashar al-Assad and his political system.
“If successful, this opportunity could, on the one hand, secure Israel's security interests by limiting the Resistance Axis's ability to support Hezbollah and, consequently, Hamas, while also altering the foreign policy stance of Assad's political regime. On the other hand, it could force Damascus to accept demands pursued by Turkey and the United States through their occupation of parts of Syrian territory,” Jalal Khoshchehreh, an analyst wrote for Rouydad 24.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran firmly supports the Syrian army and government,” Abbas Araghchi said during a Navy Day event in Tehran on Saturday, ahead of his visit to Damascus.
“We make no distinction between the Zionist regime and Takfiri terrorists,” he added, referring to Syria's Islamist rebels and denouncing what he described as destabilizing efforts by external actors in the region.
He also added that he is going to deliver Tehran’s message for the Syrian government during his trip.
The comments come as Syria experiences its most significant rebel advance in years. Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist militant group, is leading an offensive that captured large sections of Syria's second largest city, Aleppo, including its international airport according to their statement, and advanced into neighboring Hama province. This marked the most substantial territorial loss for the Assad government, which is backed by Iran and Russia.
Syrian opposition fighter drives a motorbike in Aleppo, after the Syrian army said that dozens of its soldiers had been killed in a major attack by rebels who swept into the city, in Syria November 30, 2024.
In response, Syrian forces, supported by Russian airstrikes, launched a counteroffensive to regain control. The Russian defense ministry confirmed that its air force has been striking rebel positions, describing the situation as the boldest challenge to Syrian government forces in years.
Araghchi framed the conflict as part of a broader geopolitical struggle, alleging that the United States and Israel were aligned with militant groups in the region.
“The Takfiri terrorist forces are now standing alongside America,” he said, expressing confidence in the Syrian government’s ability to reclaim lost ground.
“The Syrian army will once again, as in the past, overcome these terrorist groups.”
for Assad’s military, including financial aid, weapons, and personnel from the IRGC and allied militias such as Hezbollah. These forces have propped up the Syrian government in its efforts to reclaim territory since the civil war began in 2011. However, the latest rebel offensive has demonstrated the limits of Tehran’s capabilities that have weakened in recent months because of relentless Israel attacks against Hezbollah.
The fighting in Aleppo, which was firmly under government control since 2016, has disrupted years of relative calm in Syria’s civil war. Over 50 towns and villages fell to rebel forces, with reports of significant casualties among Syrian government troops, who retreated from several areas.
The developments have drawn international attention, with the White House National Security Council condemning the Assad government for its reliance on Iran and Russia.
Rebels led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham drive a military vehicle in al-Rashideen, Aleppo province, Syria November 29, 2024.
Syria’s refusal to engage in a political process and its dependence on Iran and Russia “has created the conditions now unfolding, including the collapse of regime lines in northwest Syria,” said NSC spokesperson Sean Savett.
Meanwhile, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led by Kurdish groups and backed by the United States, expanded their control in parts of Aleppo as government forces withdrew. The conflict’s resurgence has reignited regional tensions, with its intersections in Gaza, Lebanon, and northwest Syria highlighting the broader geopolitical stakes.
Araghchi’s visit to Damascus forms part of Iran’s broader outreach to save the Assad government. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei on Saturday announced plans for Araghchi’s further meetings with Turkish officials after Damascus.
The renewed fighting signals a potential turning point in the 13-year Syrian civil war, as key players reassert their influence in the country’s fragmented political and military landscape.