Germany and the EU have joined efforts by countries including the US and UK to build relations with Syria’s new ruling Islamist group, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), after the fall of former president Bashar al-Assad.
This news analysis comes after Bashar al-Assad in Syria lost his grip on power after support from Iran and its ally Hezbollah were sapped by over a year of conflict with Israel.
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani, whose tenure is supported in part by Iran-backed armed groups, may now face pressure to prioritize Iraq’s sovereignty over foreign influence according to the daily.
"Iraq remains internally divided over the repercussions of the situation in Syria, with some still supporting intervention at this point. Factions and some actors in the Shiite political scene align with this view, consistent with Tehran’s stance, which has announced the continuation of resistance," wrote Al-Mada.
The Committee to Protect Journalists has said Al-Mada "is seen as one of the only remaining critical newspapers in Iraq".
Operating under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and supported by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), these groups wield considerable power over Iraq’s governance, military operations, and energy infrastructure.
Despite their original mandate to combat ISIS, many of the militias have since expanded their activities, frequently targeting US forces and installations in Iraq with rockets and drones, and exacerbating tensions between Tehran and Washington.
The paper also highlighted fears of broader regional destabilization following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, a key ally of Iran.
"Political forces have started warning about scenarios similar to Syria’s situation if rapid internal reforms are not implemented," wrote Al-Mada, citing thinktanks advising Iraqi government to distance itself from the poor governance of the Shiite political forces that have held power since 2003.
Tehran’s armed affiliates in Iraq may be weakened by the developments in Syria. The Australian Arab Institute for Strategic Affairs recently warned that Baghdad faces a critical juncture: either curb the influence of Iran-backed militias or risk becoming a target for escalating Israeli and US military operations.
Adding to the uncertainty are concerns about the potential reactivation of ISIS sleeper cells given the security vacuum next door.
“Iraq is trying to maintain a somewhat balanced relationship with Washington and not align itself entirely with Tehran,” Rahim al-Aboudi, a senior official in the National Wisdom Movement, was quoted as saying.
Growing public discontent
Domestically, public anger toward Iran’s proxies has intensified in recent years, particularly after their violent suppression of 2019 anti-government protests which criticized Iranian influence.
Social media has amplified these frustrations, with posts encouraging attacks on the Iranian embassy and measures to end the activities of armed groups backed by Tehran.
“Numerous individuals or fake accounts have called for citizens to arm themselves in opposition to Iran-backed forces,” Truske Sadeghi, a former Iran International correspondent posted on X.
The warnings of instability echo fears of a repeat of Iraq’s tumultuous recent past.
Unlike the ISIS incursions of 2014 which originated from Syria, analysts warn that any future unrest could arise from within Iraq’s cities, fueled by the same grievances that sparked the 2019 protests but on a potentially larger scale.
While Baghdad has reiterated that its borders are secure, the government’s inability to effectively manage the influence of IRGC-backed militias has left the country vulnerable to both domestic upheaval and regional spillovers.
As Iraq navigates mounting international and domestic pressures, its leadership could face a critical choice: assert greater control over Tehran-backed forces or risk a deeper descent into instability.
The appointee, Abdulrahman Fattahi—an Iranian-born Sunni cleric and former imam—brings a history of Salafi activism and ideological influence that could help shape HTS’s strategy toward Iran and the Kurdish regions.
Sources close to Fattahi, who withheld their identity for security reasons, told Iran International that his early influence drew criticism from Iranian authorities and eventually led to multiple arrests, culminating in his imprisonment before his departure to Syria in 2015.
Shaped by Salafi teachings
Fattahi’s religious education began in mosques in Mahabad, where he studied Islamic theology under Kurdish clerics. His leanings toward Salafi ideology deepened after he traveled to Iraqi Kurdistan in 1992 to study under Abdulqader Tawhidi, a leading figure in the Tawhid Movement for Iranian Sunnis. Tawhidi’s teachings, rooted in emulating the practices of Salafism, shaped Fattahi’s doctrinal beliefs.
Fattahi, also known as Abu Safiya al-Kurdi, has spent decades advocating Salafi-jihadi ideology. Born in Sulgheh, a village near Mahabad in Iran’s Kordestan Province, his early life and religious studies set the foundation for a trajectory that led from local leadership to regional prominence.
After completing his studies in 1996, Fattahi joined the Islamic Movement of Kurdistan, which maintained ties with Iran’s government. He returned to Iran in the late 1990s, where he became the imam of Ziveh, a village near Mahabad. His Salafi views gained him followers but also drew scrutiny, with Iranian authorities repeatedly detaining him. His last arrest in 2011 resulted in a three-year sentence in Rajaei Shahr Prison near Tehran.
Rise in Syria’s jihadist networks
After his release in 2014, Fattahi left Iran and joined jihadist groups in Syria, where he became a prominent figure in the Movement of Sunni Migrants of Iran. This HTS-aligned faction, formed in 2019, consists of Iranian Sunni jihadists who pledged allegiance to HTS’s predecessor, Jabhat al-Nusra.
In HTS-controlled Idlib, Fattahi rose to senior positions, serving as a Sharia judge and Mufti. Video footage shows him delivering fiery sermons in Kurdish, praising figures like Osama bin Laden and denouncing Iran’s Shia rulers as “Rawafid” (rejectors). In these speeches, he vowed to “liberate Iran’s Sunnis from occupation.”
The source who spoke to Iran International detailed Fattahi’s ability to inspire Kurdish jihadists. His rhetoric, the source said, “combines religious authority with political strategy, making him a key figure in HTS’s evolving regional plans.”
Fattahi’s reported appointment as deputy for Iranian affairs to HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Joulani signals a potential shift in the group’s regional strategy.
Al-Joulani recently described Iran’s presence in Syria as a significant threat. He said: “We were able to end the Iranian presence in Syria, but we are not enemies of the Iranian people.”
Fattahi’s Kurdish roots and ideological stance position him to influence HTS’s approach to both Iran and the Kurdish regions. His prominence suggests that HTS is leveraging Iranian Sunni dissidents to consolidate its control in Idlib while countering Tehran’s influence in Syria.
For Tehran, Fattahi’s role represents a direct ideological and strategic challenge. His leadership highlights the enduring influence of transnational Sunni jihadist networks and highlights the vulnerabilities posed by Iranian Sunni dissidents.
As HTS seeks to balance its Salafi roots with pragmatic goals in Syria’s fragmented conflict, figures like Fattahi demonstrate the group’s adaptability.
His ascent could also further complicate Iran’s efforts to maintain its foothold in Syria - a key smuggling route to its military allies in the region and trade route amidst sanctions - while countering the resurgence of Sunni militancy on its borders.
Salafis, an ultraconservative branch of Sunni Islam, emphasize a return to the practices and beliefs of the early Muslim community (the Salaf Salih or pious predecessors) and often view later interpretations of Islamic teachings as deviations.
Their rigid adherence to this ideology has historically put them at odds with Shia Muslims, whom they label as Rawafid (rejectors) for not recognizing the legitimacy of the first three caliphs and for their veneration of Imams. Salafis accuse Shias of deviating from the core principles of Islam, regarding many of their rituals and beliefs as innovations (bid’ah) forbidden in Islam.
This animosity has fueled sectarian tensions in regions where Salafis seek influence, often leading to violent clashes. Militant Salafi-jihadi groups, such as ISIS and al-Qaeda, have taken this opposition to an extreme, targeting Shias in their campaigns, excommunicating them (takfir), and justifying violence against them as part of their broader ideological and political objectives. This sectarian divide continues to play a significant role in the dynamics of conflicts across the Middle East.
German diplomats met HTS representatives on Tuesday in Damascus to discuss the transition, according to Germany’s foreign ministry.
"The possibilities of a diplomatic presence in Damascus are also being explored there," read a statement, adding that Berlin is monitoring HTS closely given its roots in al-Qaeda ideology.
"As far as one can tell, they have acted prudently so far," the statement said.
The fall of Assad this month marked the end of 13 years of war, during which around one million refugees have moved to Germany. The country has since paused the asylum procedures as it assesses the new government.
The ministry said that Germany is liaising closely with its partners, including the US, France and Britain, as well as Arab states.
A statement Tuesday said there will be conditions for moving forward.
"The situation remains fragile – the civil war has not only destroyed the country but left deep scars in Syrian society. Millions of people are displaced, the humanitarian situation remains extremely precarious and the danger of fresh violence is omnipresent," the ministry said.
The Federal Foreign Office has drawn up an eight-point plan to support a future Syria, including a greater diplomatic presence and securing and destroying chemical weapons.
"At this time of fragility, it is crucial that Syria does not once again become an arena for international power struggles," added the statement.
On Tuesday, Ann Snow, the UK's special representative for Syria, was seen meeting the HTS leader in Damascus, while US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced "direct" talks were also ongoing.
Also among those keen to engage the new leadership, Giorgia Meloni, the Prime Minister of Italy, made clear her intentions for the country to build relations moving forward.
"Italy is the only G7 country with an open embassy in Damascus and is ready to engage in dialogue with Syria's new leadership within the framework of joint assessments and actions with European and international partners," she said Wednesday.
The President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, speaking in Ankara, said on Wednesday that while the collapse of the Assad government offers new hope to Syrians, there are still great risks.
Standing alongside Turkish President Recap Erdogan at a press conference, she said: "The situation on the ground remains extremely volatile so we are closely monitoring developments ... Europe is ready to do its part to support Syria at this critical junction."
She said their top diplomat is also returning to Damascus, adding that "direct engagement" with HTS and other factions will be next on the agenda, in addition to humanitarian aid and the early recovery of services such as electricity, water and infrastructure. Europe is Syria's biggest donor, with 33 billion euros gathered for the country since 2011, she said.
"Turkey has an essential role in stabilizing the region," she said, speaking directly to President Erdogan, along with a role in the prevention of a resurgence of terrorism.
The statements came as this week, the EU also announced it would be sending an envoy to Damascus for talks with the new interim leadership.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Tuesday that while the EU delegation, which is like an embassy, in Syria was never officially closed, there had not been an accredited ambassador in Damascus during the war.
"We want this delegation to be fully operational again," Kallas said in the European Parliament.
Speaking to reporters on Monday, Kallas said that part of the upcoming EU-Syria discussions will be to sway Damascus from the grip of Iran and Russia.
Directing her message to the new leaders, Kallas said: “Russia and Iran are not your friends, are not helping you if you are in trouble. They left Assad’s regime, and that is a very clear message showing that their hands are full elsewhere and they are weakened.”
As the remnants of the decades-long Assad rule are being swept away, the head of a US-based Syrian advocacy organization said on Monday that a mass grave outside of Damascus contained the bodies of at least 100,000 people killed by the former government.
Mouaz Moustafa of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, said that at al-Qutayfah, 40 km north of the Syrian capital, was one of five mass graves he had identified over the years, hundreds of thousands of Syrians estimated to have been killed since 2011 following Assad’s crackdown on the civil war.
Speaking to Reuters, he said there are fears of US and UK citizens as well as other foreigners being among them. “One hundred thousand is the most conservative estimate. It's a very, very extremely almost unfairly conservative estimate,” he said.
